It feels so good to hit a bet with ease, especially when we take a higher line than what they gave us. We took the over 11 at Coors Field and the game ended 10-9. It was 6-4 in the fourth inning, it was never a sweat.

That’s all good, but we have more work to do. I woke up with a feeling similar to yesterday’s. Zac Gallen is in for a rough start.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 30-34 (-5.89 U)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Zac Gallen vs. Emerson Hancock

I woke up this morning with a feeling: Zac Gallen is in for a rough day. Yesterday, I woke up with a feeling about the total at Coors Field, but today, it’s the Arizona right-hander.

I bet the under 194.5 on Gallen’s season-long strikeout prop. I wrote about how his fastball will regress as the season progresses. It has, but it’s regressed more quickly than I thought. His fastball velocity is already down from 93.6 MPH to 92.5 MPH this season. It’s not just fastball velocity; it’s everything. Every single one of his pitches is down in velocity.

He has special voodoo when pitching in Arizona. He has only allowed one run at home and was dominant there last year. If this game were in Arizona, I wouldn’t be as confident. On the road this season, he allowed three runs to the Rockies and five to the Giants. In ten road innings this year, he’s allowed eight runs.

His road issues are not new. His ERA is a full run worse on the road over his career. His ERA was 4.42 on the road last year compared to a 2.27 ERA at home. It’s always been this way for him, so if you’re ever looking to fade, make sure he’s on the road.

He’s facing a Mariners offense that is not only above average against fastballs this year but has been heating up. A series at Coors helps, but over the last two weeks, this has been the number one offense against right-handed pitching. They have a 128 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, ranking higher than teams like the Dodgers, Padres, and Orioles.

Gallen’s issue is his 50.9% Hard-Hit rate, which the Mariners should be able to take advantage of. They rank ninth in Hard-Hit rate over the last two weeks and fifth against righties over the entire season.

The Mariners have also been successful against Gallen in the past. Through 40 PA, they have a .347 xwOBA and .270 xBA. Those aren’t the best stats in the world, but it is solid.

Behind Gallen is a bullpen that readers of this column know well. They have blown three leads when we bet them, so why would I stay away from them when the Mariners have the better bullpen? I’m taking the Mariners early and late.

Emerson Hancock lines up for the Mariners. He’s a fine pitcher; I grade him as a four-starter. His ERA projections have him in the mid-fours, and his SIERA is 4.14 this season. I’m not buying this 6.10 ERA because it’s inflated after an eight-run blowup against the Brewers.

He’s made three starts this year. Two of them were six-inning two-run performances. The other, he went into the sixth inning but allowed three runs to the Guardians. That’s about what he is. He’ll go 5-6 innings and allow 2-3 runs against an average offense.

Arizona’s offense has been below average against righties this year. They rank 22nd in wRC+, 13th in Hard-Hit rate, 23rd in OPS, and 25th in BA.

This Arizona offense has also stunk up the joint lately, falling to a 77 wRC+ over the last two weeks. That places them 25th in the league against righties. In that span, they rank 27th in OPS, 24th in BA, and 15th in Hard-Hit rate.

Hancock will likely allow a few runs, but I think Gallen allows more. I think the Mariners will have a 3-2 lead after the fifth, and with the Diamondbacks’ bullpen woes, combined with Arizona most likely scoring a run or two late, I think the Mariners win 5-4. I’m going over on the whole game and taking the Mariners in both halves.

The Pick: Mariners First 5 Innings ML (+120) Risk 0.5 Units

The Pick: Mariners ML (+115) Risk 0.5 Units

The Pick: Over 7.5 (-110) Risk 0.5 Units