The Blue Jays! It was an easy win yesterday on the +115 underdog, and Mets fans DID NOT LIKE IT, and they let me know it. Credit to them; my record fading them isn’t pretty, but I’ve been on the right side more often than not lately against them.

Today, we have a bet that isn’t for the faint of heart. My guess is only a handful of people will tail this; good. Let’s get weird on a Wednesday.

If anyone is interested in my NFL Week 2 Picks (+35.25 Units in 2023), click here.

2024 Record: 113-116 (-7.44 U)

Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox @ 2:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd (2.20 ERA) vs. Davis Martin (3.29 ERA)

Matthew Boyd has been fantastic since he entered the Guardians rotation in August. He has five starts so far, and in four of them, he’s only allowed one earned run. Now he gets to face the White Sox, the worst team in history. Surely he dominates… right?

If you want to back the guy with a 2.20 ERA against the worst team ever, the books give you some easy lines to hit.

You can bet Matthew Boyd under 1.5 earned runs at +130, a line he’s been under in four of five starts this year. You can bet Matthew Boyd over 5.5 strikeouts at -125, a line he’s been over in three of his last five starts, including two in a row. You can bet Matthew Boyd under 4.5 hits at +100, a line he’s been under in all five of his starts so far.

If betting on baseball was that easy, we’d be on a hammock in cancun talking about which account we should take money out of for our five star dinner reservation.

We aren’t just line reading, Matthew Boyd does not have great numbers against the thick of the White Sox lineup. Matthew Boyd has plenty of seasons under his belt with the Detroit Tigers, so the older guys on the White Sox have seen him plenty of times.

Matthew Boyd has recorded 48 PA against the White Sox current roster. They are hitting .318 against him with a .368 xwOBA and a .530 xSLG. He won’t make our cheat sheet because he doesn’t have enough PA against this roster to qualify, but we are dealing with a 2.5 team total here. One swing of the bat can get us there.

Andrew Benintendi is 7-18 (.389) with a home run against Boyd. Nicky Lopez is 4-15 (.267) with a home run. Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn are a combined 3-11, with all three hits being doubles. He’s juiced to the over 1.5 earned runs at -180 for a reason, we can project two runs against Matthew Boyd with the potential for more.

The Guardians bullpen is the best in baseball but they aren’t in a good rest spot, and while the White Sox are a dumpster fire, they have at least seen them countless times. Is it outlandish to believe they can get a singular run if we need it after six innings?

I don’t think it is, and we should have a full nine innings to try and get it done, as it’s assumed the Guardians will have a lead. If the Guardians don’t have a lead, I find it hard to believe that means the White Sox haven’t scored at least three already.

You can bet on Matthew Boyd to record a win at +115. Boyd is 2-1 in five starts, and he just recorded a win against the Dodgers. I refuse to believe that happens on the first game of the day on a Wednesday slate without many other sports going on.

We are 2-0 taking these disgusting team totals in the last game of the series. We veered off with the Marlins, as that was the second game and we got burned. The Guardians have won the first two games of a three game set; the White Sox are trying to avoid the sweep at home. We often see a bit more motivation to not be embarrassed. The White Sox did score three runs in the first game, but were shutout yesterday.

I can easily see Boyd giving up three runs here, but if he dominates and only gives up two, I have faith we can scratch one more to get us in the green. The White Sox are the worst team in my lifetime, so we aren’t laying juice (lol). You can take the full game over if you’re scared, but I don’t love banking on the Guardians to score five or more. If you like the over, you have to assume the White Sox contribute a little bit.

The Pick: White Sox Team Total Over 2.5 (-130) Risk 1 Unit

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.