MLB Division Series Betting Preview

The Division Series is set. We have divisional showdowns between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, as well as the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers.

A heavyweight fight between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies, and a perceived “David and Goliath” battle between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers.

Four teams will be moving on to the Championship series; let’s break down my picks to do so.

Before we do that, let’s talk about the impact of the bye week. In our Wild Card Series preview, momentum was discussed, and it was noted that it’s not as significant a factor as some may think. That was highlighted in the series between the Tigers and the Guardians. While Cleveland had a late rally to win the division, and the Tigers only won one seven games in September, the Tigers still found a way to win the series.

Do First Round Byes Matter?

In 2023, the Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles, and Atlanta Braves all won 100+ games, locking in a first-round bye in the playoffs. The Orioles went on to get swept by the eventual World Series-winning Texas Rangers, and the Dodgers would suffer the same fate at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks, the runner-up that season. The Braves would lose in four to the Phillies, who went on to lose in seven against the Diamondbacks.

What was the excuse from the fans?

“The layoff made my team come out flat; this isn’t fair.”

Honestly, if I were a fan of either of those teams, I may have said the same thing. Those three did look flat; there was some merit to what they were saying. However, in 2024, the conversation was muted, as three teams who earned the bye moved on to the Championship Series. Since the best-of-three Wild Card Series was introduced, teams that earned the bye are just 6-6 in the division series. But is that enough of a sample to make a claim? I don’t think so.

In 2024, teams that earned the bye went 3-1 in the Division Series.

The Phillies (Bye) lost in four games to the New York Mets.
The Yankees (Bye) won in four games against the Kansas City Royals.
The Dodgers (Bye) won in five games against the San Diego Padres.
The Guardians (Bye) won in five games against the Tigers.

In 2023, teams that earned the bye went 1-3 in the Division Series.

The Orioles (Bye) got swept by the Rangers in three games.
The Braves (Bye) lost in four games to the Phillies.
The Dodgers (Bye) got swept by the Diamondbacks in three games.
The Houston Astros (Bye) won in four games against the Minnesota Twins.

In 2022, teams that earned the bye went 2-2 in the Division Series

The Braves (Bye) lost in four games to the Phillies.
The Dodgers (Bye) lost in four games to the Padres.
The Astros (Bye) swept the Seattle Mariners in three games.
The Yankees (Bye) beat the Guardians in five games.

We talked through this on the latest episode of the Just Baseball Show. The bye allows the team to optimize their starting rotation, but there is something to be said for the offense when you’re getting consistent playoff at-bats leading into the next series. It depends on the individual; does a starter or reliever need a reset, or will the extra time show up as rust in their first appearance?

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays

Odds to Win Series: Yankees (-155), Blue Jays (+130)

The Bax X Projection: Yankees (60.1%), Blue Jays (39.9%)

Season Series: Blue Jays went 8-5 against the Yankees this season, 6-1 at home, including a four-game sweep at the beginning of July.

Offense: The Yankees posted the highest wRC+ in baseball among playoff teams at 118 against right-handed pitching. That’s big in this series, as the Jays don’t have a left-handed starter outside of Eric Lauer, who’s not scheduled to be in the rotation.

The Yankees would have a clear edge over most teams in this area, but the Jays have a 113 wRC+ against righties, the fifth-best mark in the league. It’s a similar story against lefties; the Yankees rank first with a 121 wRC+, and the Blue Jays are in fourth at 111.

Losing Bo Bichette is enormous, but can Anthony Santander, who has been hurt for the majority of the season, make an impact here? It remains to be seen, but to summarize, the Yankees have the offensive advantage, but not by much.

Starting Pitching: The full-season numbers don’t tell the whole story for either rotation. Cam Schlittler put together one of the best postseason pitching performances of all time for the Yankees, but he only threw 73 innings in the regular season.

The Blue Jays acquired Shane Bieber at the trade deadline, a true ace in our league. The Yankees have the best pitcher in this series in Max Fried, but the Blue Jays have the second and third best in Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber.

What elevates the Yankees slightly higher here is the emergence of Schlittler, but can Trey Yesavage do the same for Toronto? What does Luis Gil look like, and on that note, Max Scherzer? There is a lot up in the air, but for now, I give the Yankees the slight advantage.

Bullpen: Neither bullpen’s full-season numbers are any good. Toronto’s bullpen has a 3.99 FIP this season compared to New York’s at 4.11. Both are in the middle of the pack. Jeff Hoffman is a major X-Factor here. He put up a 4.37 ERA this season, but in September, he pitched to a 0.84 ERA over 10.2 innings of work. However, in those ten innings, he only recorded eight strikeouts while walking seven batters.

He’s been inconsistent all season long, but at the same time, he has the stuff to be a standout reliever in this series. The same could be said about Luke Weaver. He has it in him, but his September was lousy, and he blew his only appearance in the Wild Card series. The Jays’ bullpen is deeper, which is why they get the edge for me.

Defense: The Yankees are an average defensive team, while the Blue Jays are elite. Toronto finished ninth in Statcast Outs Above Average while the Yankees finished 18th. The Yankees’ defense is better than their season stats would indicate, as they brought in Ryan McMahon to play third base, and Anthony Volpe is playing like the 2024 Gold Glove version of himself.

On the flip side, Daulton Varsho is one of the best defensive outfielders in the league, and he’s only been back for a few months. Bichette’s absence will hurt the offense, but it will improve the defense, as he’s one of the worst defenders at the position. However you draw it up, Toronto has the edge, and a strong one at that.

Baserunning: Neither team runs the bases well. The Yankees rank 18th and the Blue Jays rank 22nd in Baserunning Runs. In terms of runs via extra bases taken, the Blue Jays rank 19th, and the Yankees rank 28th. Calling it a wash.

Overall Outlook

I was surprised to see BetMGM give the Yankees this price, especially considering Toronto has home-field advantage. They’ve dominated the Yankees (and everyone else) all season long at the Rogers Centre. The Yankees took two of three at the tail end of the season, the first successful series of the season for them.

However, the Red Sox also owned the Yankees in the regular season, and look how that turned out. The Blue Jays will feel the absence of Bichette, and considering they don’t have a bullpen advantage, the odds favor the Yankees. However, there is no value in betting on the Yankees, especially since they are an underdog in game one. If the Yankees drop game one, I’m interested in buying back in on the Yankees.

If I were to make a bet, I would look towards over 4.5 Games at +155. While I agree the Yankees win this series about 60% of the time, it should be a battle until the very end.

Lean: Over 4.5 Games (+155)

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers

Odds to Win Series: Cubs (+100), Brewers (-120)

The Bat X Projection: Brewers (52.5%), Cubs (47.5%)

Season Series: The Cubs win 7-6 against the Brewers this season. In Milwaukee, the two teams split their six-game series, with each team winning three games.

Offense: The Cubs and Brewers rank right after each other in terms of wRC+ against righties, with the Cubs at 110 and the Brewers at 107. However, over the final two months of the season, the Brewers’ offense ranked fourth against righties while the Cubs ranked 17th. It’s the same story against lefties. The Cubs have been the better offense this season, but the Brewers’ recent numbers are much better. The key here is Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong. If both of them are firing on all cylinders, as they did in Game Three against San Diego, I like Chicago’s offense better. If they don’t, the Brewers are the better unit. I could be convinced of either side having the edge.

Starting Pitching: The Brewers would have a clear advantage on the mound if Brandon Woodruff were available, but earlier today, it was announced that his injury wouldn’t allow him to pitch in this series. Without him, they’ll likely turn to Jose Quintana in Game 3, who is a reliable veteran with a 3.96 ERA this season.

They might go with Jacob Misiorowski, which I would advise against, considering he ended the season on a sour note. The same can be said for Shota Imanaga, who turned in the poorest result among Cubs pitchers in the playoffs, and didn’t end the season well. Matthew Boyd didn’t either, but Jameson Taillon was on a heater to finish the year. Overall, the edge still lies with Milwaukee, but not by much.

Bullpen: The Brewers rank fifth in FIP this year in the bullpen. It’s a bullpen loaded with high-octane stuff, and the back-end of Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill is only rivaled by Andres Munoz and Matt Brash in Seattle as the best duo in the playoffs.

However, I put it down as a light edge because I think this Cubs bullpen is really rounding into form. The quartet of Daniel Palencia, Drew Pomeranz, Andrew Kittredge, and Brad Keller may not have substantial name value, but they make up for it in results.

Defense: The Brewers rank as a top-five defense by OAA, but the Cubs rank second, three outs behind the St. Louis Cardinals. There is a larger gap between Chicago and Milwaukee than between Chicago and St. Louis. However, we are splitting hairs; these are the two best defensive teams in the playoffs. The numbers favor the Cubs, so I give them the slight edge.

Base-running: The Brewers are the best base-running team by far. They have 15 Baserunning runs, next best is the Mets with 12. They have scored 15 runs via taking an extra base; the following best is Detroit with eight. However, the Cubs rank fifth and ninth, respectively, in those two categories.

Overall Outlook

This is a total coin flip. Similar to the season series, this is as close as it gets. I give the edge to Milwaukee due to home-field advantage and a better pitching staff, but that’s reflected in the market, as they are a -120 favorite. This is yet another series I expect to go the full five games, look towards Over 4.5 at +150.

Leans: Over 4.5 Games (+150)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies

Odds to Win Series: Dodgers (-120), Phillies (+100)

The Bat X Projection: Dodgers (66.4%), Phillies (33.6%)

Season Series: The Phillies went 4-2 against the Dodgers this season, including taking two of three games at the beginning of April in Philadelphia and two of three in LA in the middle of September.

Offense: The Dodgers getting Will Smith back is enormous, especially in a series against the Phillies. Not just because the Phillies are fantastic and so is Will Smith, but his right-handed bat going up against three left-handed starters is a game-changer. While Smith has actually been better against right-handed pitching this season, adding his .836 OPS against lefties compared to Ben Rortvedt elongates the already potent Dodgers’ attack.

The Dodgers have a 114 wRC+ against righties this year, while the Phillies are at 110. It’s a similar story against lefties, with the Dodgers edging them out 111 to 106. The Dodgers are the better offense, but not by much.

Starting Pitching: Losing Zack Wheeler is a crushing blow. He’s the best postseason pitcher in MLB, and one of the best of all time. However, the Phillies have plenty of reinforcements, highlighted by Cristopher Sanchez. The lanky left-hander is going to finish second in Cy Young voting this season after a spectacular 2025 campaign.

I’m interested to see who starts game two for the Phillies, as Ranger Suarez did not end the season on a high note and exited his last start with a lower-body injury. I have zero questions about the combination of Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, and Tyler Glasnow.

Bullpen: While I think the Dodgers’ bullpen woes are overblown, the Phillies hold the advantage here. I was surprised to see the Phillies have worse bullpen numbers over the entire season, as the Dodgers rank 17th in FIP and the Phillies rank 20th. However, Jhoan Duran hasn’t been with the Phillies all year, as he was acquired at the deadline.

The Phillies’ bullpen numbers are also bogged down by some less-than-ideal performances at the bottom of the bullpen, arms we won’t see in this series at all. Roki Sasaki is a huge X-Factor for LA. Can he build off his impressive performance against the Reds? Can Tanner Scott bounce back after leading MLB in blown saves? If they don’t, the Phillies can win games in the later innings.

Defense: The Phillies and Dodgers have almost identical defensive numbers this season. Both are above-average units, but there isn’t an edge either way.

Baserunning: Both of these teams are fantastic on the bases, but the Phillies reign supreme. They rank seventh in baserunning runs and fifth in runs via taking an extra base, while the Dodgers rank tenth and 15th, respectively. I’m really excited to see how Trea Turner affects the game in this one against his former team; few glide around the bases like he does.

Overall Outlook

This series features the most significant discrepancy between the Bat X projections and the line on BetMGM. I believe the Dodgers are the better team, but the Phillies’ home-field advantage should not be underestimated. I really wish Wheeler were healthy, because if he were, I would lean towards the Phillies. But he’s not, and to beat the 2024 World Champs, you need every weapon at your disposal.

My first instinct is to take the Dodgers series price, but it doesn’t make sense to do it now. It’s a much better bet to bet on them to win the World Series or the National League, or just bet on them in-game, as they are the underdogs. I already bet the Dodgers WS at +550 as recommended in my previous article. I think the Dodgers win the series, and if they lose game one, I’ll likely buy back in on LA to move to the NLCS.

Lean: Wait, bet the Dodgers series price if they lose game one. Or, bet the Dodgers World Series (+360).

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners

Odds to Win Series: Tigers (+155), Mariners (-185)

The Bat X Projection: Mariners (64.6%), Tigers (35.4%)

The Seattle Mariners went 4-2 against the Tigers this season, but lost two of three to Detroit to start the season, and then swept them in Detroit in mid-July.

Offense: Luckily for Seattle, they don’t have any left-handed starting pitchers, and their bullpen is almost entirely right-handed. The Tigers will be in their lesser split all series long, but their two best hitters, Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene, both prefer right-handed pitching.

Those two will have to continue to step up like they did in the Wild Card round if the Tigers want any chance at beating Seattle. Seattle’s full-season numbers don’t even do them justice, as they added both Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez at the trade deadline. The overall offensive advantage skews heavily in favor of Seattle.

Starting Pitching: The names in Seattle are better. That may make you think Seattle has a strong edge here, especially considering their season-long numbers are much better than Detroit’s. The problem with that analysis is that Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in this series, and he’ll pitch twice.

The Mariners made an interesting decision to go with George Kirby and Luis Castillo in Games 1 and 2, which I think is a mistake. This means Logan Gilbert will not pitch twice in this series. Bryan Woo’s status is also uncertain as he’s dealing with a pectoral injury.

Jack Flaherty looked solid in his first start for Detroit, and Reese Olson makes his return to the rotation. The Mariners’ rotation also has significant home/road splits, except for Woo. If they don’t win both games in Seattle, they’ll see Skubal one more time, and both of the next two starts will be on the road. I’m still giving Seattle the edge here, but not by as much as everyone is making it seem to be.

Bullpen: To put it plainly, the Mariners’ bullpen is way better than the Tigers’. Seattle has a top ten bullpen in the game, while some of Detroit’s numbers would tell you they are among the worst in the game. When it comes to the late innings, Seattle owns a clear edge.

Defense: The Tigers are an average defensive team, but the Mariners are terrible on defense. They rank 28th, sitting just above the Nationals and the Angels with -28 OAA. They sacrificed defense for offense at the deadline by adding Suarez and Naylor.

Naylor is a fine defender at first base, but Suarez is one of the worst qualified defenders at the position. Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh are fantastic defenders, but that’s about it. In a short series where the margins are tight, defense could be Seattle’s undoing.

Baserunning: Another area in which the Mariners are well below average. They rank 26th in baserunning runs and dead last in runs via extra bases taken. They steal bases, but that doesn’t mean they are a good baserunning team. The Tigers don’t steal bases, but they are an excellent team in that regard, and they rarely make mistakes. They rank eighth in baserunning runs and second in runs via extra bases taken. Baserunning mistakes may very well haunt the Seattle Mariners.

Overall Outlook

Most people think it’s a foregone conclusion that the Mariners won this series, but I’m not so sure. When everyone agrees, that’s an opportunity to see if those people have missed anything, and in this case, I think they have. The Mariners are particularly weak in the little things: baserunning and defense.

Another underreported edge is the managers. AJ Hinch is the best manager in baseball for my money, and this is Dan Wilson’s first year at the helm. Their best pitcher all season long appears to be injured, and I don’t understand why they aren’t throwing Logan Gilbert early on so he can return for a start later in the series.

While Skubal has struggled against the Mariners this season, I’d like to see them hit postseason Skubal, who has a 2.03 ERA over 26.2 postseason innings. Nobody believes in the Tigers outside of myself and the people of Detroit.

I smell an upset here, but I wouldn’t bet it now. The Mariners are huge favorites in game one, so when they likely win that game, you’ll get a great price on Detroit. In four games, Seattle will see Skubal twice. Can they win those two starts and find a way to win one at home?

Leans: Wait, look to bet on the Detroit series price after a Game 1 loss.