Gunnar saved us from disaster.

Carlos Rodon dominated, throwing five perfect innings. However, he still ended up allowing two earned runs, and if the game hadn’t been such a blowout, he would have continued. Regardless, I’ll hold the fat loss on Carlos Rodon over 2.5 earned runs (+125).

We did get the Henderson vs. Rodon matchup, and Gunnar hit two balls over 90 MPH, including a home run in his third at-bat. It was good to see that read come to fruition, but it was still a small losing day.

Today I’m back with a first five ML pick (-105) and a strikeout prop (+110).

2025 Record: 26-17 (+8.57 Units)

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New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles @ 6:35 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Yankees: Carlos Carrasco (5.26 ERA, 1.36 WHIP in 25.2 Innings)

Orioles: Cade Povich (5.04 ERA, 1.72 WHIP in 25 Innings)

When we backed the Nationals multiple times against the Mets, I had a feeling of a letdown series for the superior team on the road, especially in a divisional matchup. I have the same feeling here. Yes, the Orioles are worse than the Yankees, and yesterday’s 15-3 win showed it. However, I think the Orioles have the starting pitching edge in this game, which should help them establish an early lead. I think the bullpens are a wash, but early on, the Orioles have the edge.

Let’s talk offense first. The Yankees arguably have the best offense in Major League Baseball. They have scored 173 runs this year, only trailing the Chicago Cubs. They have been fantastic against both lefties and righties to start the season. However, the Orioles, in this spot, have better numbers than the Yankees do.

The Orioles stink against lefties, as we saw yesterday. Against righties at home, nobody has performed better than the Baltimore Orioles. In Camden Yards, they are rocking a 157 wRC+, which is much better than the number two offense at home against righties, the Dodgers. The Dodgers are only at 141, so we see how potent this Baltimore attack is in this spot.

The Orioles at home against righties rank number one in wRC+, OPS, ISO, Hard-Hit Rate, and SLG. This is the spot to back the Orioles’ offense, especially against Carlos Carrasco.

Carrasco does nothing exceptionally well, except for supporting a league-average walk rate. He’s faced these Orioles bats plenty of times, and the quality of contact is not ideal. Through 47 PA, Orioles bats are hitting .244, but their xBA is .263. They are rocking a .357 xwOBA with a .463 xSLG.

As stated earlier, the Orioles are the number one offense against righties at home. They also have the number one xwOBA against right-handers who throw sinkers, sliders, fastballs, and changeups regardless of the park. Those are Carrasco’s four most-used pitches, taking up about 90% of his arsenal.

Based on how the Orioles have been swinging it this season against that mix from right-handers at home, this is the best matchup they could ask for. Not exaggerating either, there is no better matchup for them in the game right now.

The Yankees have a 107 wRC+ against lefties on the road this year, still respectable, but nowhere near the numbers the Orioles are putting up. Povich also holds a clear edge in SIERA (4.14 vs 4.79), and he still has upside. He was one of the Orioles’ top pitching prospects and has upped his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate from last season.

I expect Povich to utilize his curveball more often than not in this matchup. It’s his third-most-used offering, but I’m sure the Orioles will notice how bad the Yankees have been against left-handed curveballs. Their .180 xwOBA against that pitch is the fourth-worst mark in baseball. Against both sweepers and curveballs from lefties, the Yankees rank 17th in xwOBA. If Povich has command of his breaking balls, I expect him to be solid today.

Most of the Yankees’ bats haven’t seen him either, which I prefer over Carrasco, who has not performed well against the Orioles. Considering I get the better pitcher and the offense in a better spot, I make the Orioles -140 through the first five innings. Considering we push if they tie, and we get to bat in the bottom of the fifth without them getting to counter, Orioles F5 ML has to be the play today. I would take this up to -120.

Player Prop #1

The Padres have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against righties to start the year, which is giving us value on this line.

San Diego got off to an electric start before pulling back after a few injuries to the offense. They were the best team in baseball, but now they’ve lost seven of their last ten games. In the previous two weeks, that strikeout rate has started to climb, now sitting 19th at 20.1%. When you look at the past week, they rose to 22.2%, which is the tenth highest mark in baseball against righties.

Logan Webb didn’t even look good yesterday, and he still struck out six Padres batters. Landen Roupp has a similar strikeout rate to Logan Webb out of the gate, but his Whiff Rate and Chase Rate are both higher than Webb’s.

The Padres have the highest O-Swing% (Outside the Zone Swing Percentage) in the league. This metric is calculated by dividing the number of swings at pitches outside the strike zone by the total number of pitches outside the zone.

Essentially, they employ a very aggressive offense that chases outside the zone, which gets me excited, knowing Roupp’s primary offering is his curveball, which boasts a 52% whiff rate. I also expect plenty of whiffs on his changeup, which he likes to drop below the zone, and it’s garnered a 38% whiff rate.

It’s one thing to like a pitcher to get swings and misses in a specific matchup, but I plan on backing Roupp more often than not this season. He’s rocking a strikeout rate close to 30%, he keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip, and he’s allowing a 26.8% Hard-Hit rate, one of the best in the league.

He struggled in his last start against the Brewers, only striking out two batters. Another reason I like him today is that I believe we are getting a discount on this line based on the Padres’ relatively low strikeout rate and his recent struggles.

He’s been over this line in three of his five starts this year, including all three of his starts on the road. I have him projected for 4.9 strikeouts, giving us a 58% chance of going over 4.5 strikeouts. At +110, this is a bet for me, and I would take it up to -115.

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