Gavin Williams!! He only recorded seven outs and allowed three runs but still went over 3.5 strikeouts (+100). The velocity increase we spoke about yesterday was there; every pitch he threw was above his regular season average. He was nasty, but he left too many balls in the middle of the zone against a great Yankees offense.

Our total for the playoffs is now +10.01 Units in the green. That’s awesome. Today, we are looking at two player props for ALCS Game 5 between the Yankees and Guardians.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians @ 8:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon (3.96 ERA) vs. Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA)

We are going the other way on both pitchers. Carlos Rodon struck out nine Guardians in game one, and Tanner Bibee only struck out two Yankees in Game 2. Both pitchers end up with the same number of strikeouts: five. One has an inflated line, and the other saw the market crash against them, and we are going against it.

We’ll start with Bibee, which shows the most significant edge. Tanner Bibee was lifted from the game early in Game Two after allowing five hits and two earned runs. While he only recorded four outs, two were via the strikeout.

It’s a similar handicap to yesterday’s play on Gavin Williams. If Bibee doesn’t get destroyed, he should go over 3.5 strikeouts. These are also different circumstances. While it is an elimination game, I feel Vogt has to give Bibee a longer leash. The Yankees have had a lot of success against this stellar bullpen this series, and they look spent.

Back-to-back games for most high-leverage arms, leaving the possibility of a bridge pitcher in Ben Lively to pick up the slack if Bibee struggles. I have a hard time believing that if Bibee is halfway decent, Vogt will give him a longer run rather than going to either Lively or Cantillo. Bibee is this team’s ace, and it’s an elimination game at home. He has to get the most out of Bibee here for the Guardians to have a shot.

We discussed this yesterday: the Yankees have an elevated strikeout rate against righties. The Yankees hit right-handers well, but in the second half, they had a 22.2% strikeout rate against righties. From September, they had a 25% strikeout rate, the tenth highest in that span. They rank in the middle regarding whiff rate against Tanner Bibee’s pitch mix.

Tanner Bibee is excellent; let’s remember that, as the market has forgotten. Over his last 20 starts, he’s been over 3.5 strikeouts in 15 (75%). Before his previous two playoff starts, he was over this line in ten straight starts.

He made 34 starts this season and was over this line in 27 (79%). He averaged 5.82 strikeouts per game with a median of six. If we look at over 4.5 strikeouts, he was over that line in 22 of his 34 starts (65%).

Bibee only recorded four outs as Vogt took him out quickly in his first start. He only went through the lineup once and threw 39 pitches. Not only should his arm feel fresh, the Yankees haven’t seen much of him. The Yankees have seen most of these relievers more than Bibee at this point, especially considering they never faced him in the regular season.

Bibee has the recipe to strike out five of these Yankees bats in a short amount of time. He rocked a 26% strikeout rate this year, putting him in the upper quarter of the league. He gets whiffs at an above-average rate and is regularly in the zone, rocking an above-average walk rate. His cutter has a 36.5% whiff rate, and his changeup and slider are above 29%. The Yankees have a combined 25% whiff rate against those pitches, which are in the middle of the pack, just like it was against Williams.

Unless Bibee gets destroyed, I have to imagine Vogt wants him to go at least two times through the order. He has the stuff to strike out five in four innings of work, but at 3.5, it’s a no-brainer. At 4.5, it should be close, but I think he gets it, and the value is certainly there. I would take over 3.5 to -155 and over 4.5 to +140.

The Picks: Tanner Bibee Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-135) Risk 1.35 Units, Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+170) Risk 0.5 Units

Carlos Rodon’s line is set as if this is a regular season game where he’d normally get a long leash to keep going. I’m not sure that will be the case today, as I see a likely scenario of Rodon going four to five innings with Marcus Stroman piggybacking today.

The Yankees bullpen is withering away. That’s why Rodon’s props are set up for length. BetMGM fully expects Rodon to get a longer leash today due to the worries in the bullpen. The Yankees bullpen definitely needs a breather, so I expect to see Stroman enter this ballgame.

So what that has me doing is lowering the expectation for length from Rodon. The Yankees have Gerrit Cole going game six in Yankee Stadium. They have to feel good about that game, and my guess is they’d prefer to have high leverage arms rested. Of course, if this game is close, we will see them use everyone to try and win, but in a perfect world, they get five innings from Rodon, three innings from Stroman, and then Weaver closes it out.

That’s a perfect scenario for the Yankees, but that doesn’t mean it happens. Jack Flaherty dominated the Mets in his first game, going seven innings, allowing two hits and no runs, and striking out six. His next start was a disaster, allowing eight earned runs in three innings with zero strikeouts. By no means do I think that type of start will happen today, but there is something to seeing a pitcher go six innings against you.

Now they get to adjust to Rodon at home. Rodon struggled much more on the road this season, posting a 4.69 ERA and a 25.7% strikeout rate compared to a 3.11 ERA and 27.5% strikeout rate at home. Over his last ten starts, he’s been over this line five times. This is a normal line for him, which I disagree with.

The Guardians have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate against lefties this season and the fourth-lowest in the last month of the season. Against lefties, the Guardians have a 19.6% strikeout rate at home and a 21.7% strikeout rate on the road. Whiffing that many times against Rodon is an outlier, and I expect an adjustment to be made.

I think he ends with five strikeouts. He turns in a solid five-inning performance, allowing a few runs and ending with a strikeout every inning. There isn’t a significant edge here, but it’s enough to warrant a half-unit bet. I would only take this up to -120.

The Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110) Risk 0.55 Units