We had a solid week in the MLB, going 5-4 which was good for +0.96 Units. September has been a strong month so far and we are close to the highest total of units we have been at all year. My goal is to get to 40, but it doesn’t have to all be in one day. I just have one pick for you in the MLB, but multiple picks for Monday Night Football and plenty of props across the board.
You may be wondering why I’m not on the Sunday Night Baseball system. That system is fading the offense off of playing on Sunday Night Baseball. There wasn’t much travel for the Dodgers, and they are too good to even fit in this. They’ve also crushed Merril Kelly multiple times so I’m not about to fade them.
The Giants and Rockies game has me confused. Chad Kuhl has been the ultimate fade for me and he has been crushed by the Giants on multiple occasions. I’d lean towards the under, but the weather looks great in Colorado. It’s a tough one, so I’ll just be staying away.
2022 MLB Regular Season Record: 207-172 (55%), +36.04 Units
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1:10 pm EST
Sonny Gray (RHP, Twins) [8-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 117.2 IP, 116 K, 35 BB]
Cal Quantrill (RHP, Guardians) [12-5, 3.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 164 IP, 114 K, 43 BB]
This will be the fifth and final game of a five-game set between these division rivals. It’s been a great series so far as the Guardians took the first three games and the Twins won yesterday’s matchup. You know what I’ll be on today, but here are some cool stats about Cal Quantrill.
The Guardians will also have Emmanuel Clase behind Cal Quantrill. They should have most of the arms available after only Eli Morgan and Enyel De Los Santos pitched yesterday.
If you want to argue that Cal Quantrill is due for regression by his advanced metrics then you should say the same for Sonny Gray. Gray’s 2.83 ERA is fantastic, but his 3.53 xERA sits in the 63rd percentile, and his 3.29 FIP and 3.65 xFIP isn’t very shiny. He’s been a solid pitcher all season long but he hasn’t had a ton of success against the Guardians.
This will be Sonny Gray’s fourth appearance against them and over 15.1 innings he’s allowed 15 hits and five earned runs to give him a 2.93 ERA. That’s solid, but half of those innings came in a seven-inning shutout performance. In his other two starts, he threw 8.1 innings and allowed those five runs.
The Guardians are better hitting during the day and I think they do a number on Gray in his fourth start against him. The Twins are not a very good road team, sitting with a 30-41 record. When they are underdogs on the road, they don’t often come through, going 32-39 ATS, third worst in the league.