The Brewers! An unbelievable finish by Milwaukee led to them hitting their team total of over 4.5. It looked terrible through eight innings before a Hunter Renfroe home run gave us life. With two outs and runners on second and third, Victor Caratini hit a hard ground ball to first-basemen Christian Walker and it looked like all hope was lost.
He booted it. That was his fifth error on the season and first since August 11. He’ll most likely win the gold glove in the National League but made a costly error to allow the Brewers to tie it. The Brewers went on to win the game in extra innings. If that doesn’t explain baseball betting, I’m not sure what does.
This is a fluky game. It’s never over until the third out is recorded. We only have two days left of the regular season. I have one pick for you as well as some props on the podcast.
2022 MLB Regular Season Record: 219-179 (55%), +40.89 Units
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: 6:10 pm EST
Daniel Lynch (LHP, Royals) [4-12, 4.96 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 127 IP, 120 K, 50 BB]
Cal Quantrill (RHP, Guardians) [14-5, 3.42 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 181.1 IP, 124 K, 47 BB]
We head to Cleveland for Cal Quantrill’s final start of the regular season. It’s been a wild ride of tailing this man every fifth day. When I say wild, I mean incredibly profitable.
On July 4th, 2021, Quantrill threw at home against the Astros in what ended up being a 4-3 loss in 10 innings. That was the first game where Quantrill pitched into the sixth inning and cemented a place in the Guardians rotation. From there, the Guardians won his next two decisions but then lost the next two even though Cal threw six innings of one-run ball in each of them.
He really went on a tear to end the 2021 season, rocking a 1.42 ERA in August followed by a 2.73 ERA in September. He proved he could make it in the rotation but still flew under the radar as the 2022 season started.
Since July 11 of this year, if you tailed Guardians money line in every one of his starts, regardless of the ballpark, you would be 15-1. If you tailed Quantrill in every home start he’s made this season, you would be 14-4 on the season. He is the system play. Find me another system that is as profitable as Cal Quantrill.
The issue in this particular game is the price of the money line. The reason why Quantrill is a cheat code is he is consistently undervalued by the books. His advanced stats point to regression, but the regression never comes. Due to this, his money line price is always cheaper, and we end up getting an inexpensive way to put our hard-earned money on the pitcher who never loses.
Daniel Lynch has the stuff to be a solid big leaguer, but he hasn’t fully materialized yet. He’s coming off a September where he rocked a 6.08 ERA but he pitched well in his last start against the Tigers. Lynch has only thrown once against the Guardians this season where he allowed six earned runs in four innings. He faced them three times last year, putting up a 7.24 ERA through 13.2 innings.
The advanced stats against the current lineup for each pitcher are vastly different. Through 47 PA against the Guardians’ current roster, Lynch is only striking out 10.6% of batters with a .390 opponent average and a .433 wOBA. That’s troubling for the young southpaw, and a .375 xwOBA, .333 xBA, and a .433 xSLG doesn’t really point to any positive regression to the mean.
Quantrill on the other hand has performed well against the Royals. He’s thrown against them twice this year, tossing 11 innings and allowing five runs to give him a 3.97 ERA. Through 75 PA against the Royals’ current roster, he’s striking out 17.3% of Royals hitters to go along with a .347 wOBA and a .286 opponent average. That’s not great, but a .329 xwOBA, .278 xBA, and a .432 xSLG with a lower average exit velocity than Lynch is solid.
The bullpen advantage is laughable. I could point to a bunch of different stats for you but why waste your time? The Guardians bullpen is much better than the Royals.
This will be the fifth straight game these two teams have played each other. The Guardians have won two, and the Royals have won two. If I had to rely on one man to take a lead in the series at home, you already know who it is.
We could take the first five innings. We could take the Guardians spread. I will not be doing any of those things. The system is Guardians money line. I have not given you bets this season that have exceeded -150, and this will be the only time this season I ever go back on that. He’s earned it. Quantrill has earned a leap of faith to take an expensive money line even if I don’t believe in it.
Quantrill has one mission. Win the game. Just like he has time over time for us. Good luck, king.