We had a gut-wrenching day yesterday to end the week. We went 1-2 with some tough beats. The Braves dominated the first five innings before a Yordan Alvarez base-hit that scored two. They ended up tied after five innings as the Braves lost out on plenty of opportunities to put it away.
We took the Giants through the first five, which was one the worst beats of the season. They dominated the whole way through and even won the entire game. But of course, Brian Serven hits a two-run home run in the bottom of the fifth to tie it, and we lost.
We did take the over in Phillies vs. Mets, which was magical. It hit early on, and the rest of the game produced runs at an electric rate.
We went 10-7 last week, good for 1.64 units in the green. We love a positive week; let’s start it again today. Check out the podcast (link below) for my MLB Player Props of the day on PrizePicks.
2022 MLB Regular Season Record: 177-145 (55%) +31.84 units
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 10:10 pm EST
Eric Lauer (LHP, Brewers) [8-5, 3.58 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 125.2 IP, 123 K, 45 BB]
Julio Urias (LHP, Dodgers) [13-6, 2.40 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 127.2 IP, 123 K, 26 BB]
We head to Los Angeles for the first game of a three-game set. The Dodgers are proving they are the best team in baseball by a wide margin. They are the only team with 80+ wins and have the best run-differential by a country mile. Do they have a weakness? You could say the closer, Craig Kimbrel is a weakness, but weirdly enough, they aren’t quite as powerful against left-handed pitchers.
You put any right-handed pitcher in front of the Dodgers, and they’ll crush him. They beat up the front-runner for the NL CY Young, Sandy Alcantara, for six runs over 3.2 innings. Against lefties however, they aren’t the same force. Since the trade deadline, the Dodgers rank 17th in wRC+ against southpaws with the 16th ranked ISO and OPS. They rank 7th in baseball in wRC+ since the All-Star break, so most of those struggles have come as of late. Over the entire season, they have the 11th-ranked OPS against lefties. It’s still the Dodgers, so they shouldn’t struggle that much today.
I have very little faith in the Brewers’ bullpen. Outside of Devin Williams, there isn’t much to hang your hat on, and most of them are right-handed pitchers. Devin Williams also hasn’t looked as electric recently. I think it’ll be relatively low scoring early, then the Dodgers taking a sizeable lead late.
Talk about struggling against lefties; how about the Milwaukee Brewers? They are another team that can crush any right-hander you throw at them, but lefties have given them troubles all season long. Since the All-Star break, they rank 29th in wRC+ with a .596 OPS. Today, they’ll face one of the better southpaws in the game in a pitcher-friendly park. I’m expecting a lackluster day from their offense.
Eric Lauer will get the ball for the Brewers, and in his last start against the Dodgers, he threw seven innings and only allowed four hits and two earned runs. That was his last start, and now the Dodgers will get another crack at him. The familiarity should bode well for the Dodgers, but I don’t think they blow him up.
Julio Urias will get the ball for the Dodgers, who’s in line for another solid start against the Brewers. The familiarity here doesn’t concern me as much, as the Brewers’ offense doesn’t match up well against him. They’ve never been able to hit him, and since the trade deadline, we are looking at the fifth worst offense in terms of wRC+ against southpaws.
In terms of OPS this season, the Brewers are worse during night games and on the road. The Brewers also have to travel from Chicago to Los Angeles without an off-day in between while the Dodgers get to sit at home.
This should be a terrible day for the Brewers’ offense as most of the high leverage arms are available to come in after Urias. I think the Brewers will be lucky to score one run today, so I’ll be on the Dodgers spread. I’m putting more stock into the Dodgers than the under because I believe the Brewers might squeak out a run or two, and the Dodgers pile on late in the game. I’ll be on the Dodgers spread and take the under on the team total of the Brewers for a sprinkle.
The Picks: Dodgers -1.5 (-120) , Brewers Under 2.5 Runs (+105)
1.2 Units to Win 1 Unit (Dodgers), 0.5 Units to Win 0.53 Units (Brewers TT)