For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season, I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day from 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
Back-to-back winning days! We went 2-1 yesterday, cashing our two-unit play and picked up +1.80 U. I love the board today, and I have four plays in total, including two underdogs. It’s time to build our bankroll for the weekend, and I’m ready to give out some winners. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 143-97-2 (+35.87 U)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Merrill Kelly vs. Michael Lorenzen
We have a system match on the Snakes and Merrill Kelly to start the day. Kelly is 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA and has worked himself into the Cy Young conversation. The D-Backs are 6-1 in his last seven starts, and he’s better on the road with a 1.63 ERA.
Road interleague favorites have been a solid system of ours to start the year, and it’s 58-33 this season, hitting at 64%. To add to that system, road interleague favorites off a win are 35-15, hitting at 70%. The D-Backs also have the rest advantage in this matchup after their game got postponed yesterday.
Off days and rest advantages are huge indicators for me when it comes to baseball. Teams on extra rest or off days are able to have the time to get their guys off their feet and allow bullpens to be fresh. Kelly was supposed to start yesterday, and he’s now pitching on six days’ rest which benefits the Snakes.
The Tigers don’t have an edge in this one, they played yesterday and almost got no-hit by Zack Wheeler. Detroit is batting .221 as a team and only 14-13 at home. Arizona has been profitable in these spots, they are 19-9 as a favorite, 17-11 on the road, and 26-15 against right-handers.
Give me the Snakes.
The Play: Arizona Diamondbacks (-140) 1.4 U to win 1 U
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Tylor Megill vs. Rich Hill
The Mets had a prime opportunity to close the gap in the NL East after having multi-run leads in all three games against the Braves. However, after getting swept, the Mets are on the outside looking in and could potentially miss the playoffs. Then after dealing with blowing their third straight lead, they get to hop on a plane to go to Pittsburgh and face the Pirates, who had an off day on Thursday. Doesn’t seem like a recipe for success.
The Mets’ bullpen is gassed, they only got three innings out of Verlander yesterday, and they will need a strong start from Tylor Megill. It’s not a dream scenario considering he has a xERA of 5.80 and he’s walked 32 batters in 59 innings this year.
Rich Hill isn’t much better but pitching models rate Hill higher than Megill. The Pirates have a rested bullpen, and they’ve pitched better than the Mets’ bullpen this season (21st vs. 24th in xFIP). I project this line more towards and pick ‘em, so if the books are going to give me Pittsburgh at plus money, I’ll take it.
The Play: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+107) 1 U to win 1.07 U
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Sonny Gray vs. Yusei Kikuchi
The Blue Jays have steam in their favor. They opened as a short -115 home favorite and are now steamed up to -125 in most shops. This is a little fishy for me, considering how well Sonny Gray has pitched this season, so I broke down the numbers. The Twins haven’t given Gray much run support this year, and Minnesota is 1-5 in his last six starts.
The Jays match a couple of systems for me as well. AL East teams vs. the AL Central are 49-21 this season, and this is a good spot to fade the Twins. They are 7-17 as an underdog this year, and we have a value play on Toronto. Can’t forget to mention that the Blue Jays are 18-11 at home while the Twins are 13-18 on the road.
I’m backing the bats of Toronto, they are batting .263 as a team compared to the Twins who are batting .229 and aren’t expected to have Jorge Polanco in the lineup tonight due to injury. I’m not going to overthink it; give me the better team at home.
The Play: Toronto Blue Jays ML (-123) 1.23 U to win 1 U
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals @ 8:15 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Ben Lively vs. Jordan Montgomery
Before I break down this game, I want to say I’m all in on this Reds team. They are young and exciting to watch, and I have a sneaky feeling Cincy is about to go on a little win streak. If they win tonight, I will continue to bet on them every day until they lose. Book that.
The Reds got shut out by Clayton Kershaw yesterday, but they get another swing at a lefty today in Jordan Montgomery. They are better against lefties ranking 17th in the league and 23rd against right-handers.
From a pitching standpoint, Ben Lively has the edge over Montgomery, he has an xERA of 3.72 compared to 4.48, and I like Lively in this spot. The Cardinals have lost the last 10 games that Montgomery has started, and that’s why there’s so much value on the Reds in this game.
Cincinnati has become a fan favorite, and the division is wide open, these divisional games are important, and the Reds need every win they can get. The Cardinals are 12-16 at home and are 3-7 in their last ten games. At the end of the day, there’s no reason the Reds should be this big of dogs, and I’m going to ride with them tonight.
The Play: Cincinnati Reds ML (+166) .75 U to win 1.24 U