MLB Best Bets, April 27th, 2023
Heading into Thursday's MLB slate, we're taking a look at two games: the Padres at Cubs in Chicago and the Orioles at Tigers in Detroit.
For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season, I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day from 4:00 to 6:30 PM ET.
We started off the week hot having back-to-back winning days, but yesterday the Dodgers couldn’t come through and cash our two-unit play. We went 3-2 and lost -1.31 units, but I’m not worried. Minor setback for a major comeback. I have another two-unit play today and only two plays total. Bounce-back day incoming. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 69-42-1 (+27.61 U)
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 PM ET
Pitching Matchup: Seth Lugo vs. Hayden Wesneski
All eyes are on the total in this one. Seth Lugo takes the mound for San Diego, and he has pitched well this season as a starter. Lugo comes into this matchup with a 2-1 record and a 2.78 ERA. However, those numbers are deceiving; Lugo’s expected ERA is 4.52, and he is in the 12th percentile in whiff rate and the 30th percentile in xBA according to Statcast. Lugo is due for regression start, and on the road in Chicago is a prime spot.
Hayden Wesneski hasn’t met expectations this season. Wesneski has one of the best offspeed pitches in baseball, but his fastball has prevented him from getting outs. The 25-year-old right-hander has struggled this season, with a 1-1 record and a 6.23 ERA. To make things even worse, his expected ERA is 6.48. When you continue to break down the advanced stats, Wesneski is near the bottom in most categories. He ranks toward the bottom in xBA, K%, and Whiff% according to Statcast.
Runs are going to be scored in this one, and with two pitchers who struggle to strike guys out, I see a lot of offense happening early. The first five total is set at 4.5, and I see this one soaring over. Day game at Wrigley, let’s see some runs.
The Play: San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs O4.5 F5 (-112) 1.12 U to win 1 U
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detriot Tigers @ 6:40 PM ET
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Gibson vs. Joey Wentz
This might be a square bet, but it’s a system play, and I am going to roll with a system hitting over 68%. If you have been reading the writeups then you know non-divisional road favorites have been our favorite system all year long. Yesterday that system went 0-2 and we lost on the Dodgers and the Mariners. It’s not perfect, but any system hitting over 65% is worth noting.
The Orioles not only match this system, but they have multiple trends in their favor. Baltimore is 4-0 in their last four games against left-handers, 6-1 in their last seven following a win, and 8-1 in their last nine games overall. The Orioles are the hotter team coming into this matchup, and they should have success off of Joey Wentz.
Wentz has yet to win a game this season and has an ERA above seven. In his last start against the Orioles, Wentz went only four innings, allowing five runs on six hits. Overall, he has struggled this year, with a 7.56 ERA, but his expected ERA is 4.74. He hasn’t pitched as badly as the numbers show, but the Orioles have had a lot of success against lefties this season and I see that trend continuing.
Kyle Gibson has been lights out this year, with a 4-0 record and a 3.60 ERA. Gibson has gone five innings in all of his starts and he has been the Orioles’ best starter this season. He faced the Tigers last week, going 6.1 innings while striking out 11. The Orioles are also a good team on the road, with a 7-4 record, and they are batting .253 as a team. Like I said, it’s a system play, and the Orioles are the better team with steam in their direction – the line opened at -137, and Baltimore is now at -150. This one’s cashing. Two units on the O’s.
The Play: Baltimore Orioles ML (-150) 3 U to win 2 U