Second straight loser. I took Dodgers ML yesterday and put a half unit on the run line, and the Mets crushed them. That was a tough one to watch, as my article was all about how good the Dodgers would pitch in this game, and it was the complete opposite out there. It’s mostly gone our way this postseason, but that was a swing and a miss.

Our total for the playoffs is now +6.23 Units in the green. We’ve built a big enough cushion to soften the blow of two straight losses. The only game on the board today is the Yankees vs Guardians, and I have a prop worth looking at.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees @ 7:35 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA) vs. Gerrit Cole (3.41 ERA)

I’m a Yankee fan and have been since birth. I love Gerrit Cole. He’s been fantastic for us in the playoffs and one of the best pitchers on the planet. However, I’m a guy who trusts the numbers, and his strikeout line is too high. I think it’s inflated by Rodon’s performance yesterday, striking out nine Guardians while recording 25 whiffs.

The Guardians are two different offenses against both right-handed pitching and left-handed pitching. Against lefties, they have a higher wRC+, hit for more power, and overall, they are in their better split. However, they strike out at a higher rate, as more of their right-handed platoon bats sacrifice some swing and miss to tap into more power.

Against righties on the road this season, the Guardians have a 19.6% strikeout rate, the second lowest in the league. Against lefties on the road this season, the strikeout rate climbs to 21.6%. If we look at the season’s final month, their strikeout rate in this spot is 19.5%.

A big reason the Guardians are here is their ability to put the ball in play consistently, so last night’s performance feels like a significant outlier, but the fact it came against a left-hander makes some sense.

The Guardians strikeout rate at home against right-handers is 20.7%. This has been the trend all season, as we saw in the final month, the strikeout rate was 26% at home. However, on the road, they have consistently been able to limit the strikeouts. After last night’s performance, I have to imagine they make a concerted effort to put the ball in play, they know that if they whiff this much again the game is over.

Gerrit Cole also has a strikeout issue at Yankee Stadium. Gerrit Cole has failed to exceed 5.5 strikeouts in six of his last seven games at home (4.4 strikeouts/game average). He’s also been under this line in four of his previous five starts. He faced the Guardians in August and only allowed one hit and no runs through six innings. He only had two strikeouts that game; you guessed it, it was at Yankee Stadium.

Over Cole’s last three starts against the Guardians, returning to 2023, he’s averaging 4.33 strikeouts against them. Over his career against this current lineup (142 PA), his strikeout rate is 22.5%, much lower than his career average.

2024 Gerrit Cole is not striking out 30% of hitters like he used to. His strikeout rate this year is just 25.4%, a career low for him. His whiff and chase rates this year are actually below average. He sits in the 33rd percentile of chase rate and 44th percentile in whiff rate. His fastball velocity is also at a career-low this year. He’s still awesome, but not quite the same guy.

I used Baseball Savant to determine the Guardian’s whiff rate against Cole’s pitch mix. He throws a fastball, knuckle curve, cutter, changeup, and slider. When you combine the whiff rate for the Guardians against those pitches, they have the second lowest in the league, only trailing the Padres.

The Royals have the fifth-lowest whiff rate against that mix, and over two starts, Cole had a 3.00 ERA against them. He went seven innings while only allowing one run in his last start and still only struck out four each time.

There is also some psychology at play here. Rodon just had nine strikeouts, and now the best pitcher left in the playoffs has a 5.5 line at plus money? The contrarian part of my brain thinks there is no way the books are paying that out on his over.

This is why I love this bet as a Yankee fan. Cole could still dominate and not end up with six strikeouts. I should be laying the juice here, but my fandom keeps it to one unit. Give me a break; it’s the playoffs, and I love my team, but this is easily my favorite play in this game.

The Pick: Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125) Risk 1 Unit