Not Gambling Advice: Baseball Picks for Today — Odds, Bets & Lines (July 10, 2025)

Yesterday’s pick looked so good until it didn’t.

We took MacKenzie Gore Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) yesterday, and through four innings, he only had three strikeouts. His livve line to hit six strikeouts was +195, and we knew he likely had two innings left. As long as he only struck out one better per inning, he was landing on five.

Then he struck out the side in the fifth. Tough one, but we go again today with an even larger play.

2025 Record: 49-49 (+3.86 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Rangers: Patrick Corbin (4.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 88.1 Innings)

Angels: Jack Kochanowicz (5.42 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 91.1 Innings)

My model highly suggests this bet, but after watching last night’s game, I wanted to play this regardless of value. The Angels’ heavy right-handed lineup is swinging it well from top to bottom, and Corbin has started to slide as the season progresses. This has “blow-up” start written all over it.

Corbin has started to slow down, and on the road against a divisional opponent that’s seen him plenty of times, it could be his worst start of the season. He sat in the mid-3s in terms of ERA through the first two months of the season, but in June, he pitched to a 5.28 ERA. The competition wasn’t great either, facing the Nationals, Twins, Royals, and Orioles twice.

The Angels’ lineup is full of veterans who have seen Patrick Corbin plenty of times. If you head on over to Baseball Savant, you’ll see the current Angels lineup has a .307 xBA with a .360 xwOBA and a .457 xSLG over 102 PA. Those are some significant numbers, and they match up so well against him.

Corbin is like most left-handed pitchers; he struggles more against right-handed batters. His K-BB drops 4% and the opponent batting average rises 40 points. This has been a trend throughout his career, as he has posted a 4.43 FIP compared to a 3.10 FIP against lefties. The Angels’ lineup will likely deploy eight right-handed bats today, and the majority of them are seeing the ball well.

I care about home/road splits if there is a trend that holds up over multiple seasons.

Corbin has difficulties pitching on the road, which has been consistent throughout his career. In his career, he has a 4.51 FIP on the road compared to a 3.78 FIP at home. This season, his FIP at home is 3.48 and his FIP on the road is 4.99.

The Rangers also stink on the road. This has also continued from last year, as the Rangers went 44-37 at Globe Life Field compared to 34-47 on the road. This season, the Rangers are 26-19 at home and an abysmal 19-29 on the road. They can’t be trusted in a road setting.

Over the last 30 days against left-handed pitching at home, the Angels have a 123 wRC+ and a .807 OPS, both top ten marks in the league.

I woke up wanting to isolate Patrick Corbin in the prop market today, but all of his props are borderline unbettable. His earned run line is 3.5, his hits line is high and majorly juiced towards the over, and his outs line is also juiced towards the under. BetMGM believes he’s in for a rough day, and I agree.

Putting my faith in Jack Kochanowicz. The reason we are getting a reasonable price here is that we have to trust Jacky K not to get crushed. Can he do it? There are a few reasons why he can outduel Corbin today.

Jacky K has a splits issue. He’s been struggling against left-handed bats this season, posting a 6.42 FIP compared to a 4.35 FIP against right-handed bats. I’ve seen it plenty of times: his sinker gets left over the zone, left-handed bats extend their arms, and the baseball takes flight. Luckily for Jack, the Rangers’ lineup is more right-handed dominant, with bats like Semien, Garcia, Langford, Burger, and Higashioka taking spots in the lineup.

The lefties should be able to square him up, but the righties should do the same to Corbin, and there are a lot more of them, and they are the better offensive team than the Rangers lately.

The Angels hold every advantage. Their lineup has a better matchup against Corbin, they are at home where they prefer playing against a bad road Rangers team, and regardless of handedness or ballpark, they have been the better offense over the last 30 days. Considering a tie is a push through the first five, my projection is heavily in favor of the Angels here.

I project the Angels as -160 favorites through the first five and -140 favorites through the full game. The Rangers have the bullpen advantage today as the Angels are not in a good rest spot. The Angels should still pull out the win, but the matchup against Corbin is where I’m putting my money. 

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