Not Gambling Advice: Baseball Picks for Today — Odds, Bets & Lines (June 25, 2025)

Yesterday featured an incredible bet and a bad bet.

We took Jacob Latz under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+120), and he allowed just one hit. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, and once he allowed his first hit, he was immediately taken out. Doesn’t get much better than that.

However, we took the over 9.5 (+100) between the Yankees and Reds. The game went into extra innings, and still felt short. At least the Reds won for our win total future on them.

2025 Record: 46-42 (+7.18 Units)

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Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets @ 7:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Braves: Didier Fuentes (7.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 5 Innings)

Mets: Clay Holmes (3.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 83 Innings)

This bet is very similar to yesterday’s wager on Jacob Latz Under 4.5 Hits. The only difference is that Didier Fuentes has better stuff, and my projection on Fuentes is lower than what I had with Latz.

The results weren’t pretty for Fuentes in his debut, but I was so impressed with how good his stuff is, and it was reflected in his numbers. It’s an ELITE fastball, averaging 95-98 MPH at a 5’1 release height with 17 inches of induced vertical break.

On the latest episode of the Just Baseball Show, Aram and Jack compared him to Bryan Woo. The only difference between Woo and Fuentes is that Fuentes has better secondaries as a rookie.

Fuentes is just 20 years old, but there is a reason the Braves called him up. He posted a 113 Stuff+ in his debut. We’ve spoken about Stuff+ countless times in these articles, but for anyone unfamiliar, Stuff+ is a FanGraphs pitch model that grades the physical characteristics of each pitch.

To put 113 in perspective, only three qualified starting pitchers have maintained a 113 or higher this season. Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Cristopher Sanchez.

He also flashed plus command in his first outing, resulting in a 116 Pitching+. Currently, only five pitchers have a 116 Pitching+ or higher: Max Fried, Spencer Schwellenbach, Zack Wheeler, Jacob DeGrom, and Tarik Skubal. Paul Skenes is at 115.

Now, is Fuentes already one of the best pitchers in the league? Not, he’s a 20-year-old with one start under his belt. What I’m arguing is that he is heavily underrated in the market right now, especially after his first start didn’t go well.

We’ve targeted Bryan Woo under hits allowed and have been successful in doing so. With elite stuff like this, it’s difficult for an offense to rack up hits, but when they do, they often leave the ballpark. In the minors this season, he threw 39.1 innings and allowed 32 hits, about 0.8 hits per inning.

I know it’s the minor leagues, but he was under 4.5 hits in seven of his nine minor league starts this year. Limiting hits is what he does best, and after allowing six in his debut, I think he finds more success here.

Not only do I think he’ll pitch well, but he will be babied, similar to Latz. This is a 20-year-old with limited experience. Even if the bullpen weren’t rested, I’d expect a lower pitch count for Fuentes. However, the Braves’ bullpen is in a great rest spot, as they have six relievers all fully ready to go. These games are crucial for Atlanta, so I expect a quick hook with Fuentes.

The matchup isn’t that difficult. The Mets have a .239 batting average at home against righties this year, the 23rd-best mark in baseball. They rank ninth in wRC+ due to a high walk rate and a strong slug. We encourage walks in a hit-allowed prop; we want his pitch count elevated so he’s taken out sooner.

Since June began, the Mets have a .249 batting average against righties, ranking 17th in MLB. The wRC+ is 128, primarily due to a high walk rate and solid slugging percentage. We don’t mind walks and home runs.

I project slightly under 4.1 hits for Fuentes, making the true line of this play -140 towards the under. He threw 87 pitches in his first outing, but with the situation today, I project 80 pitches. With a smaller workload, he should stay under 4.5 hits. I would take this to -110.

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