Not Gambling Advice: Baseball Picks for Today — Odds, Bets & Lines (June 21, 2025)

Royals!!

It felt easy out of the gate. Bobby Witt Jr homered in the first inning to give us a lead, and then Jonathan India crushed a three-run home run, and it felt like we struck a pot of gold. However, the Padres kept clawing back, eventually tying the game. The Royals struck right back, putting up two more to establish a cushion. Then, Machado homered in the bottom of the ninth, but luckily, Estevez did enough to close it out and seal the win.

Today, we are going underdog hunting again, but this time the price is even better. Let’s dive into the divisional matchup between the Reds and the Cardinals.

2025 Record: 44-40 (+6.80 Units)

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Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals @ 2:15 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Reds: Brent Suter (2.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 34 Innings)

Cardinals: Sonny Gray (3.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 85 Innings)

The Reds should not be this much of an underdog. This is a divisional matchup where these two teams have seen each other plenty of times, and while Sonny Gray is a solid pitcher, he’s being priced as if he’s a bona fide ace against a Reds team with a lousy pitching plan.

I don’t think Gray deserves to be in that category, and Suter opening for what I expect to be Chase Petty, the Reds’ pitching plan isn’t bad at all.

Yesterday’s game wasn’t nearly as bad as the box score shows—the Reds and Cardinals were in a deadlocked tie until the eighth inning, where they put up five runs. Brady Singer and Andre Pallante were locked into a pitchers’ duel, but then the Reds’ defense did its bullpen zero favors.

Bad game, but the distance between these teams is negligible. They have a nearly identical run differential, and that win gave the Cardinals a 3-2 series lead this season.

Sonny Gray is what he is. His 3.84 ERA is likely what he’ll finish with this year, as there is disagreement between his 4.02 xERA and 3.19 SIERA. He’s a very good pitcher, but the Reds have seen plenty of him. Last season, he had three starts against the Reds, and it didn’t go well. He threw 15.1 innings, allowing ten earned runs to give him a 5.87 ERA.

The Reds have been a solid offense against righties on the road this season. They have a 108 wRC+ and .746 OPS, both the sixth-best marks in baseball. While they only scored one run yesterday against the Cardinals’ six, they had an almost identical xBA. The Reds hit five balls over 100 MPH yesterday, and only one of them was a hit: a single.

Brent Suter will likely go for two innings before handing it off to what’s expected to be Chase Petty. If you look at his ERA, you’ll gasp, as it’s over 21.00 over 5.1 innings. His first taste of the bigs this year didn’t go as planned, but he’s still one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, and in the middle innings, can be a good stop-gap. He flashed good stuff when he came up, but he just ran into rookie trouble.

It’ll then be a mix-and-match game for the Reds in the bullpen. I don’t mind taking a team with a bullpen game managed by Francona. I wouldn’t call him the best manager when it comes to making these decisions, but there aren’t many managers I would take over him.

The Cardinals have won four in a row, but I don’t like their spot. They played a double-header against the White Sox, flew back home for yesterday’s game, and now they have a day game. It’s a tough schedule, not nearly as bad as San Diego’s yesterday, but still not an ideal spot.

The Cardinals’ bullpen isn’t in an ideal spot, and three of their key arms have thrown in two straight games. The only reliever on a good rest schedule is Ryan Hesley, but he’s likely only to come in a save situation, and if that happens, we’ll likely already be down. However, he’s not impervious to blowing a save.

The Cardinals’ offense hasn’t performed well in day games this season, posting a .699 OPS during the day compared to a .745 OPS at night. The Reds are the opposite, they’ve been better during the day, rocking a .735 OPS compared to a .712 OPS at night.

I think the Reds catch the Cardinals sleeping. I don’t show a ton of value, but enough to warrant a 0.8 unit wager. I make the Reds +130 in this one, giving them a 43.5% chance of winning. +175 implies a 36% chance, which I disagree with. I would bet this down to +155.

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