Not Gambling Advice: Baseball Picks for Today — Odds, Bets & Lines (May 6, 2025)

Tobias Myers pitched well and still allowed six hits.

I released over 3.5 hits (-135), but by the time I finished the writeup, the line had moved out of range. I did recommend over 4.5 hits at a plus number, but that also moved a ton. Knowing that, I posted that this pick wouldn’t count towards my record.

However, he ended with six hits. I wouldn’t have counted it if he finished with four or even five hits. After he landed on six, I thought I should put it to a vote. That poll has over 500 votes, with 78% saying I should count it on my record, so you will see that win reflected.

Today is my favorite play of the season, a two-unit play on a player prop. This isn’t a five-unit or ten-unit max; bet responsibly. There will be hundreds of picks this year, which is no guarantee. Make sure to manage your bankroll accordingly.

2025 Record: 31-19 (+13.85 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Dodgers: Tony Gonsolin (4.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, in 6 IP)

Marlins: Cal Quantrill (8.10 ERA, 1.80 WHIP in 26.2 Innings)

Cal Quantrill will forever be my King, but for my play of the month, we will be fading Dodgers’ pitcher Tony Gonsolin by backing Miami’s bats. We don’t need Miami to light up the scoreboard today; we have to rely on the Dodgers having a quick trigger for Gonsolin in this one. It sounds wacky to fade a Dodgers pitcher against the Marlins, which is why I love it so much.

Plenty of factors are at play here, bringing me to my biggest bet of the season. We’ll start with some trends in Gonsolin’s pitching outs line.

In 2023, he made 20 starts and had under 17.5 pitching outs in 14 (70%). From the 2022 season, he made 24 starts and went under this line in 12 (50%). He made 13 starts in 2021 and went under 17.5 pitching outs in all 13 (100%). In 2020, he made eight starts and was under this line in four (50%). He made six starts in 2019, going under this line in five (83%).

Tony Gonsolin has made 72 starts over his career, counting his start this season, and he’s been under 17.5 pitching outs in 48 of them (66.7%). Two-thirds of the time, Tony Gonsolin is not pitching a full six innings, and there are a few reasons to believe he won’t be doing it today either.

The Dodgers have to be careful with Gonsolin. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow have recently hit the IL, so they only have four healthy starters. They can’t afford to lose another one, and his last start was the first since 2023. He got Tommy John surgery in 2023, and the Dodgers are slowly bringing him back up to speed.

His high in the minors to start the season was 79 pitches, and then in his first start, he completed six innings in 77 pitches. I made his pitch count projection for this game 85. Dustin May got to 86 pitches in his second start, so I think they’ll let him get to that mark, then pull him out. I’ll tip my cap if he can get to six innings at that pitch count.

If we look at all of his starts with 85 pitches or less, he’s only been over 17.5 pitching outs nine times over his 71 starts coming into that start against Miami. That’s an 87.3% hit rate to the under.

This is also the second time he’s facing the same team in a row, but he’s doing it in Miami this time. On the road, he also rarely goes deep into games. He’s only been over 17.5 pitching outs in nine of his 38 total road starts (77%). The last time he threw in Miami, he finished with 16 outs.

This Miami team struck out nine times against him, but they also scattered six hits and three runs over those six innings. They were super aggressive the first time, but that was a credit to Gonsolin; he threw tons of strikes. I’m betting against him being that efficient again, considering he rarely had starts like he did in his first with tons of adrenaline. Also, the offense’s familiarity should make this start more difficult.

The Marlins’ offense isn’t great, but they rank 19th in OPS against righties at home, with a walk rate over 9%. The Marlins also rank 19th in xwOBA against Gonsolin’s pitch mix, and it’s a mix they just saw a few days ago. If they make the proper adjustment and are more patient, or they don’t change anything, and Gonsolin isn’t throwing as many strikes, he won’t complete six innings. Doing so with a pitch count between 80 and 85 pitches is tough.

While they did have a bullpen game yesterday, it’s in a decent rest spot. Ben Casparius pitched four innings in a bulk role, and nobody else pitched more than 16 pitches. Among those relievers who threw yesterday, only Jack Dreyer threw two days in a row, so they will also be available today. Anthony Banda and Luis Garcia also didn’t throw yesterday, so realistically, the Dodgers can use six relievers if they want to.

Gonsolin is a solid pitcher. I don’t expect him to get beat up here, but knowing the Dodgers’ cautious nature combined with those trends makes this a hard play to ignore. Then, you factor in the opponent’s familiarity and the fact that it is on the road, a spot where Gonsolin rarely goes deep into games.

In addition, my model on Rithmm can’t get enough of this play. My personal model makes the line -210, giving us a 67.75% chance of starting under 17.5 pitching outs. Rithmm’s AI-backed model likes it even more, projecting Gonsolin to finish with 15.2 outs, giving us a 69.8% chance of hitting this under, making the true line -230.

BetMGM allowed me to get two units down, but it was the third-best price in the market, so unless the line moves drastically, you should be able to find a better line than I did. I would bet this down to -150, or go under 16.5 pitching outs at a considerable plus number.

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