Baseball Prop Bets: The Just Baseball Staff Wagers

The Just Baseball Staff is a collection of passionate baseball writers who are willing to go lengths to defend their takes when it comes to staff debate. With that said, once that “take” is exposed, we are the first to admit we were wrong. We would like to put these early season wagers in writing so the world can pile on the losers.

Here’s an update on how those are going…

Miami Marlins Finish the Year with a Top 10 Starting Rotation ERA

Aram and I had a heated debate earlier in the season about whether the Marlins starting rotation would finish the year with a Top 10 ERA in the Majors. To be clear, this is not a total Team ERA wager; this is just for the starting rotation. Aram was under the firm belief that the trio of Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Trevor Rodgers would be enough to keep them in the Top 10. At the same time, I remain skeptical that the young trio would manage that over a full season. Aram also managed to get 2-1 odds on this, meaning he would double his investment if he wins.

Update: Aram is delighted at the moment. The Marlins Starting Rotation ERA is ranked 7th in all of baseball at 3.48. That young trio has been excellent this season, as all three of those guys have an ERA below 3.20. Cody Poteet has also been a blessing for the Marlins, who is maintaining an ERA under 3.90. The future in Miami is bright, as the average age of these guys is only 24.75 years old.

Prediction: Aram wins the bet as the Marlins remain a Top 10 Rotation in ERA. The expected numbers are holding strong.

Tarik Skubal Finishes the Season with an ERA under 4.00

Aram is back again, and this time he faces off against Colby, a huge believer in Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers. Tarik Skubal is currently sitting at a 4.36 ERA, far better than he was in April, but he has a lot of ground to catch for Colby.

Colby’s Update: Some may ask, “Colby is Tarik Skubal, your favorite player? “Do you even like Tarik Skubal as a prospect?” but that is not the priority here. Above all else, I want to see Aram be wrong on a prospect take for once. So we put our faith in a hard-throwing lefty with a nasty slider and a knack for giving up home runs. Faith though, we must keep faith in Tarik. It was a tough April. Tarik took a 6.14 ERA into May and even got demoted to the bullpen for a short while, but I held my ground, and Tarik answered my prayers. He has 3.48 ERA since May 1st and owns a 4.36 ERA overall. Under 4 ERA is coming, Aram. It is inevitable.

There you have it folks, both Colby and Aram seem to be confident in their choices. Pressures on you Tarik Skubal!

Prediction: Tarik Skubal’s expected stats and FIP are much higher than his current ERA. I’d be surprised to see Skubal finish with an ERA below 4. Fairly confident that Aram wins this one.

Who finishes the year with more wins? The Royals or the Marlins?

Aram made many statements and has to back it up with some $$$, especially with this one. He’s all over the Marlins, expecting them to outlast the Royals in wins over the full season. At the beginning of the year, I felt really confident making this bet, as the Royals were above .500 before June started. Since June 1, the Royals are 4-13, and it hasn’t been fun to watch both the offense and rotation struggle. The race for wins is neck-and-neck at the moment, as the Marlins are 31-39 and the Royals are 31-38.

Aram’s Update: “Marlins are getting healthy, and the pitching has exceeded already high expectations. The Royals are coming back down to earth a bit, and the young pitching has disappointed. I am feeling good.”

No way he’s feeling good. The Royals are the better team; he’s just lucky they went on a cold streak. I will be shocked if the Marlins overtake the Royals for wins this season. Aram – you interested in doubling down?

Prediction: I may be biased here, but the Royals will finish with more wins than the Marlins. They are a better team!

Who finishes the year with more wins? The Yankees or the Mets?

This wager is so frustrating. I bet our editor with enormous confidence that the Yankees would finish the 2021 regular season with more wins than the New York Mets. A classic New York rivalry. The Yankees are currently in third place in the AL East with a record of 37-33, while the Mets are sitting comfortably in first place in the NL East at 36-28. The Mets have played six fewer games than their cross-town rivals yet remain only one win behind. The Yankees are 8th in Team ERA and 24th in runs scored. The Mets are at the bottom of the league in runs scored, but they’ve dealt with numerous injuries and played fewer games. The Mets rotation has been fantastic; they currently have the best team ERA in all of baseball.

Editor Update: The best show on TV is Jacob deGrom dominating every 5th day for the Mets. Even if you aren’t a fan of the game, you can still appreciate the greatness that he delivers start after start. There’s nothing better than angry Yankee fans knowing they have the second-best team in New York.”

I understand why he’s feeling confident. I would if I were him. The Yankees have been incredibly inconsistent, while the Mets look like one of the best teams in the National League.

Prediction: I expect that both teams finish north of 90 wins, but the Mets have the better overall team. They have a better record, and most of their stars are still on the shelf with injuries. The Mets should win the division, while the Yankees will be fighting for a wild card spot.