I LOVE THE WASHINGTON NATIONALS!

We are 3-0 betting on them this year, all as big underdogs. Brad Lord spun an excellent performance, and while it took a bit to get going, the offense eventually beat up Taijian Walker. The bullpen was clean, and we won the game with relative ease at +158. What a way to start the month.

Today, I have two picks that are bigger underdogs than the Nationals were yesterday. One is a player prop, and the other is a moneyline wager that will gross you out.

2025 Record: 28-18 (+10.15 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Tigers: Tarik Skubal (2.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 34.2 Innings)

Angels: Jose Soriano (4.50 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 34 Innings)

Are you interested in being among the few people on this planet taking the Angels today? In this Friday night showdown, everyone has decided that the Tigers have won this game with Tarik Skubal. The Tigers are the best team in the American League, and the Angels are on a slide. Of course, 95% of people will be on the Tigers here, so they are highly overvalued.

Let’s talk about one of the best players on the planet: Tarik Skubal. He’s coming off his best start of the season, a six-inning shutout with 11 strikeouts against the Orioles. He looked fantastic and’ll likely pitch well again today… or will he?

Skubal can dominate anyone at any time, no matter the matchup. He’s the best left-hander in the game and was my number one ranked pitcher overall coming into the season. Skubal deserves his 2.34 ERA, as he’s still striking out batters at an elite rate while limiting the walks and not allowing hard contact.

But… the Angels see him well. I know, it sounds crazy, but the numbers are the numbers. Through 49 PA, the Angels are hitting an absurd .386 with a .394 xwOBA and a .568 xSLG. I was even shocked to see that. Mike Trout was just put on the IL, which stinks for this bet, but all of those numbers do not include Mike Trout.

Jorge Soler has had zero issues with Skubal, going 2-4 with two home runs and two walks. Tim Anderson is excellent against Skubal, going 12-23 (.522 AVG) with six doubles and a home run. Jo Adell and Kyren Paris are both 1-3 against him.

The Angels haven’t performed against lefties this season, but I like how they profile against them. They can roll out a lineup with eight right-handed bats, which is enormous, considering Skubal has a 0.54 FIP against lefties compared to a 3.18 FIP against righties.

Also, if you ever fade Skubal, ensure it’s on the road. He’s pitched to a 3.80 FIP on the road this season compared to a 0.94 FIP at home. Over his career, he’s pitched to a 4.01 ERA and 3.73 FIP on the road compared to a 2.65 ERA and a 2.94 FIP at home. Skubal has lost two of his three road starts this season, and I think there is a chance this becomes the fourth.

Jose Soriano is my guy. I love how he pitches with his high 90s sinker, excellent knuckle curveball, fine slider, and great splitter. He’s rocking a 64.4% ground-ball rate, one of the highest in Major League Baseball. The swings and misses aren’t quite there, and he does have a walk rate at 10%, but I think he has the stuff to dominate any lineup.

Only Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry have faced him, going 0-3. I like backing pitchers where the offense is coming in blind, especially with as good of stuff as Soriano has.

The Tigers rank 15th in xwOBA against Soriano’s four most-used pitches. They have a 95 wRC+ on the road against right-handed pitchers. I show value on many Soriano props today, pointing us towards an excellent day on the mound.

The Angels used many of their lower-leverage arms in yesterday’s game, but luckily, the three best are ready to go: Kenley Jansen, Brock Burke, and Ryan Zeferjahn. If Soriano can match blows with Skubal, we are in for a close game and get the home team at a fantastic price.

The Tigers have also been mediocre on the road this season, going 7-9. They were losing to the Tigers yesterday before they mounted a big comeback. The Angels have at least been decent at home, going 5-5. Knowing they are going up against Flaherty with Hendricks on the mound tomorrow, this is the game they have to steal if they want to avoid being swept.

My model makes the Angels +122, giving them a 45% chance of winning. At +160 or higher, this is a play for me on the Angels to shock the world.

Player Prop #1

Jack Leiter is making his second start since returning from the IL with a blister. Leiter is a young pitcher who deals with command issues, so the blister on his right middle finger put a thorn in his side. He missed a few starts and then made his return to the mound against the Giants, and it did not go well.

He allowed just two hits and two runs, but he walked four and only recorded 10 total outs, getting one out in the fourth inning before being removed. He was removed at 76 pitches; I doubt he exceeds 80 in this game. With an 80 pitch count projection, his under 14.5 outs is showing plenty of value.

That’s a fair projection considering he’s made three starts this year, and his high was 82 pitches in his first start. However, we aren’t working with a ton of data, as he’s only made three starts this year, and one of them was cut off due to his blister.

His high of pitches in a game is 92, and he got crushed in this start against the Mariners, the team he faces today. Leiter faced the Mariners twice last season, allowing eight earned runs over nine innings. This current Mariners lineup is swinging it better than they did last year to counteract Leiter’s improvements this season.

Through 23 PA against the Mariners’ current roster, Mariners bats are hitting .250 against him with a .412 xwOBA and a .589 xSLG. Those underlying numbers are worrisome for the young right-hander, especially when it doesn’t feel like he’s at full strength one start off the IL.

Another wrinkle in this equation is the Mariners’ patience compared to Leiter’s inconsistent command of the strike zone. The Mariners have the highest walk rate in the league against right-handed pitching, at 12.1%. Leiter walked four batters in his last start, something that’s bit him in the past. His walk line is -215 to go over 1.5 walks, so BetMGM also expects some command issues.

Due to the number of walks they take, they rank fourth in pitches per at-bat at 3.98. His last start, where he only recorded ten outs at 76 pitches, was against the Giants, who rank third in pitches per at-bat at 3.99.

The high walk rate is a good nugget, but the Mariners’ offense also crushes righties this season. They have a 133 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is tied with the Yankees for the best mark in baseball.

Bruce Bochy should be cautious with his young right-hander, one start removed from the IL, especially against a division rival who has hit him well in the past. Even if he dominates, we could get lucky with an early pull if Bochy doesn’t want him to see the order thrice. A more likely scenario is that he struggles with command, and his pitch count ends up near 80 in the fourth inning, and he’s removed.

My model on Rithmm is obsessed with this play, projecting just 13.6 outs. I would take this down to +130 at a full unit, but lower the risk to +110.

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