We went to battle against Tomoyuki Sugano and came out victorious.

The bet hit so quickly, you may have missed it. James Wood led off the game with a home run, and then in that same inning, Josh Bell hit a two-run shot. We took Sugano Over 2.5 earned runs at +100, and it hit before the first inning ended.

Today, we are backing a sizeable underdog and picking up the scraps on a pitcher that’s been left for dead. On Fridays, we have to be disgusting if we want to win.

2025 Record: 22-14 (+7.60 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals @ 6:45 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Mets: Kodai Senga (0.79 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 22.2 Innings)

Nationals: Jake Irvin (3.68 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 29.1 Innings)

Congrats to the New York Mets! After an 18-7 start and a seven-game winning streak, they are priced and bet on as if they will never lose again. Kodai Senga hasn’t allowed a run in three starts, which will continue today. The Mets have locked in a 155-7 record, and the World Series is coming back to Queens.

Or… the Mets are overvalued.

I placed a Nationals ML wager this morning and sent it to our Discord, and they don’t want to bet it. I don’t want to bet it, and neither do you, which is why the Nationals are showing the most value of any team on the slate.

The total in this game is 9.5. As stated earlier, Kodai Senga has not allowed a run in his past three starts, so BetMGM is expecting one of, if not both, of these pitchers to struggle today. It could easily be Jake Irvin getting kicked out early, but with his past dominance over the Mets and Senga’s struggles against Washington, I think there’s a chance we’ll see regression for Senga.

Kodai Senga doesn’t have a large body of work against these Nationals bats, but in the 27 PA he does have, it hasn’t been pretty. They’re not a team that chases against Senga, which has led to a walk rate north of 25% in that sample. Again, it’s a small sample, but a .396 xwOBA against is not a good sign. CJ Abrams is back from the IL, and he’s 2-3 against Senga in his career.

This Nationals lineup against righties at home has been fantastic this year. We just spoke about them on Wednesday when we hit Tomoyuki Sugano’s earned run line in the first inning. In this spot, the Nationals have a 131 wRC+, the seventh-best mark in Major League Baseball. They have the fifth-highest OPS at .834 and the fifth-lowest strikeout rate at just 17.7%. Now with Abrams back, I think they’ll make some noise today.

On the flip side, Jake Irvin is also on a heater. Not nearly as dominant as Senga, but in his last two starts, he’s allowed just six hits and two earned runs in his previous 13.1 innings. He threw well against the Phillies, but had some troubles with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Throughout his career, he hasn’t had trouble with the Mets.

In 65 PA against the Mets’ current roster, they are hitting just .200 against him with a .303 xwOBA. Francisco Lindor sees him well, but everyone else has been unsuccessful. Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Mark Vientos are a combined 4-34 (.117 AVG). The Mets’ offense is great, but against righties on the road, their wRC+ is only 97, 3% worse than league average. I

If we take the ballpark out of it completely, these two teams are near carbon copies of each other on offense. The Nationals have a .718 OPS with a 102 wRC+ against righties while the Mets have posted a .715 OPS with a 102 wRC+. The Nationals have been hitting the ball much harder, ranking 14th in Hard-Hit rate versus the Mets at 25th.

I think the oddsmakers have acknowledged that this game will be close early, as the first five lines are much cheaper for the Mets than the full game ML. Edwin Diaz is day-to-day in the bullpen, and it’s unlikely we will see Jose Butto, who has thrown 38 pitches over the last three days. The Mets have an excellent bullpen, but it’s not quite at full strength.

The Nationals’ bullpen has dreadful numbers to start the season, but all of their high-leverage arms are fresh, so I’m willing to take the gamble late, considering the price discrepancy. If Irvin can go six innings (he did in all three starts against the Mets), he’ll hand it off to Colin Poche, Jorge Lopez, and Kyle Finnegan. I’m good with that trio.

There is also a profitable system on the Nationals. It says to take “Bad Home Division Underdogs off a Loss”. It’s precisely what the system indicates: we have a divisional opponent that was favored in their last game but suffered a loss. Those home divisional dogs are 230-169 (57.6% hit rate) (26.3% ROI) in the first game of the series.

I love Kodai Senga, and I think he’s an ace. I have him priced as one of the best pitchers in the game, and I have the Mets as the second-best team in baseball right now, only trailing the Dodgers. I still make the Nationals +125 in this game. I would take them down to +145. This is a 0.75-unit play, but my bet-tracking app rounds it up for the screenshot.

It’s a Friday night with the Mets’ ML tied in everyone’s parlays… what could go wrong?

Player Prop #1

Kyle Freeland exited his last start after just 36 pitches with a finger injury. It’s a blister that has flared up for him throughout his career and something he routinely has to deal with. He clearly wasn’t right against the Nationals, allowing three runs through two innings. That marked the second consecutive game in which he finished with only two strikeouts. That’s a trend I don’t expect to continue today.

A 3.5 strikeout line for a pitcher who’s in the 94th percentile of chase rate should be illegal. I understand why it’s low; there is uncertainty after a finger injury, he’s pitching in Coors, and the Reds have done a good job of limiting the strikeouts against lefties to start the season. All of those reasons give us value on this line.

We’ll start with the finger first. I was reading up on it this morning, and it seems to be something that Freeland experiences every year, and then can deal with. The Rockies and Freeland feel like he’s healthy enough not to miss a start, and the cold weather in Colorado today should help him. He won’t have to deal with sweat and a blister, and in the cold, that blister can harden up faster. That’s likely why he’s pitching today, and they didn’t decide to push back his start.

While he has been under this number in two straight, he’s typically racking up four strikeouts or more. Over his last 20 starts, he’s gone over 3.5 strikeouts in 12 of them (60%), averaging 4.4 strikeouts per start. He is pitching in Coors, but the Rockies veteran has pitched there plenty of times. Over his last ten starts at Coors Field, he’s been over this line in six of them (60%).

He faced the Reds last year and struck out 9. However, this Reds lineup has changed somewhat, but Freeland has still posted a respectable 20% strikeout rate against the current bats in the lineup in 50 plate appearances.

There are plenty of right-handed strikeout targets in this lineup. Elly De La Cruz, Jose Trevino, Jeimer Candelario, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, and Austin Wynns have all struck out against Freeland before. If Gavin Lux plays, he’s another strikeout target as he has a 23.1% strikeout rate against Freeland. Matt McLain has never seen him, but he is striking out north of 40% of the time against lefties.

Freeland has also been a good pitcher this year. His xERA sits in the upper third among all pitchers at 3.24, a far cry from his 4.85 ERA. His strikeout rate hasn’t been elevated, but both of his main secondary offerings have a whiff rate over 30%, and he’s getting batters to chase at an elite rate. He’s also throwing tons of strikes, only walking 2.4% of batters he’s faced.

I think Freeland bounces back today and gives the Rockies a solid outing. My model on Rithmm agrees with this play, giving us a 65.6% chance of going over 3.5 strikeouts, projecting 4.7. Use code JUSTBASEBALL25 for 25% off your first month and a seven-day free trial to build your own model on Rithmm or utilize their AI-backed model.