Early Rookie of the Year Odds: Sasaki and Dominguez Lead the Way

With the 2025 MLB season set to kick off on Thursday, fans across the league are beginning to speculate who may take home the top awards. From MVP and Cy Young picks to World Series champion predictions, fans have been busy placing their bets.

Many of these races have one thing in common though: there appears to be a clear favorite for each. However, as far as the Rookie of the Year races are concerned, that is not the case.

Major League Baseball is fortunate once again to see a large influx of talent into the league, but it appears to be more spread out than in previous years. When looking at former top prospects like Paul Skenes, Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson, and more, these awards seemed far easier to project.

Dylan Crews, Roki Sasaki, Jackson Jobe, and more will all play their first full big league seasons in 2025. Even beyond those names are quite a few under-the-radar players who could all make a run for the award themselves.

Without further ado, let’s dive into some of the favorites to take home the hardware.

All odds are provided from our partners at BetMGM. If you sign up to BetMGM with our promo code JUSTBASEBALL you will receive up to $1,000 in Bonus Bets back if your first bet doesn’t win.

NL Rookie of the Year Odds

• Roki Sasaki: +250
• Dylan Crews: +300
• Matt Shaw: +400
• Bubba Chandler: +900
• Jordan Lawlar: +1800

Unlike previous seasons, this race is fairly wide open. The favorite is star Japanese starting pitcher Roki Sasaki, who is set to play his first MLB season after a storied NPB career.

Sasaki was one of the most prized commodities during the offseason, where he’d eventually join fellow Japanese stars Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

This is the second straight year the Dodgers have had a Japanese pitcher as one of the top choices for NL Rookie of the Year. Just like Yamamoto from a season ago, Sasaki has a legitimate shot to win the award if he stays on the field.

Coming in just behind Sasaki is former No. 2 overall pick and Washington Nationals superstar prospect Dylan Crews.

While the 2025 season will be Crews’ first full year on the major league roster, this is not his first taste of the level. Crews debuted in 2024 near the end of the season, where he ran into some struggles.

He posted a wRC+ of just 80 across 31 games. But due to his small sample size, we shouldn’t be too concerned about him whatsoever. Crews’ status as one of the game’s future stars still rings true, and with a full season, Crews may take his game to new heights this year.

Behind Crews is yet another player from the first round of the 2023 MLB draft: Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw. Due to this year’s Tokyo Series, Shaw’s rookie campaign is already underway, and he’s in a good place to succeed.

Shaw flew through the minor leagues, hitting 21 homers and posting a 146 wRC+ across 121 games in 2024. He split time between two levels, excelling in both places. He’ll have the third base job to himself this season and could slowly see his odds increase over time.

Similarly to the Dodgers, the Pittsburgh Pirates have yet another young pitching prospect nearing the best odds to take home the award in righty Bubba Chandler.

Chandler has slowly become one of the more impressive pitching prospects in all of the minor leagues, lighting up the radar gun and flying up prospect rankings in the process (he recently checked in at No. 20 on Just Baseball’s latest top 100 MLB prospect list).

The Pirates recently lost Jared Jones for six weeks due to an elbow injury, and although he’ll start the year in Triple-A, it seems likely Chandler could throw significant innings for the club this summer.

If you’re looking for more of a dark horse to take home the award, look no further than D-backs shortstop Jordan Lawlar. Despite spending most of the 2024 season on the IL, Lawlar still possesses the tools to be a future star and could get some playing time later this season.

As far as placing a winning bet goes, it’s hard to look past Crews and Sasaki. Both of these players are extremely talented, and they’re each in a position to slowly become cornerstones for their respective teams this season.

AL Rookie of the Year Odds

• Jasson Domínguez: +400
• Cam Smith: +600
• Kristian Campbell: +650
• Jackson Jobe, Roman Anthony: +800
• Jacob Wilson: +850

Similarly to the National League, the American League Rookie of the Year odds also remain relatively open, with a few of the top players not even making their team’s Opening Day rosters.

According to BetMGM, the most likely winner of the AL Rookie of the Year Award is outfielder Jasson Domínguez. Domínguez will have a big role to fill for the Bronx Bombers this summer, as he’ll be expected to step up and take the place of Juan Soto in the lineup.

Domínguez’s talent has been relatively overlooked after he spent 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he’s in a far better position to succeed this year with an outfield position to himself.

When looking across the sport, it’s hard to try and find anyone who had a more eventful last year than Astros third baseman Cam Smith.

He was drafted in the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft by the Cubs, hit well in the minors, was traded for star outfielder Kyle Tucker, and is now set to make his MLB Debut on Opening Day.

After an incredible spring, Smith has seen his odds to win the award skyrocket. He should be a key part of the Astros’ offense after an offseason where they lost a lot of key players, and that should help his case. Smith has light tower power and could hit 30 homers with help from the Crawford Boxes.

Behind Smith is another player who made his club’s Opening Day roster, utility man Kristian Campbell.

Campbell shot up prospect rankings in 2024, seeing himself land inside the top 10 in some cases. He’s currently set to be the first of Boston’s “Big Three” to reach the majors, and his impact may be strong enough to lead him to a Rookie of the Year Award.

Jackson Jobe and Roman Anthony both come in with +800 odds to take home the award, which feels low considering their prospect statuses. Anthony is our No. 1 overall prospect, and Jobe is not too far behind him at No. 3 on the list.

Between the two players, Jobe is the only one set to make the Opening Day roster, as he earned himself a place in the rotation this spring. However, it shouldn’t be long until Anthony follows suit, as his talents are off the charts.

Jacob Wilson, a former first-round selection and son of former major leaguer Jack Wilson, sits with +850 odds to win the award. Although an injury ended his 2024 season early, Wilson was arguably MiLB’s best contact hitter before his promotion.

He hit an astounding .433 with a 200 wRC+ in Triple-A before his call-up, and with him now healthy, he’s a sneaky candidate to have a great 2025 season.

If you’re looking to place a bet on one of these players to take home the award, it’s really hard to look past Anthony or Jobe at +800. For two players with superstar potential who’ve both had excellent minor league careers, it feels tough to ignore these odds.