The Mets! Another winner for us on the Mets ML, as they dominated the Phillies in Game 3. We have hit six of our last seven picks; our profit in the playoffs is up to +6.6 units.

Today, we have a full slate of playoff games. Guardians vs. Tigers is nearly impossible to cap with pitching chaos, and we have heavily invested in the Padres’ futures, so I’m sitting those two games out. My favorite play of the postseason is Yankees vs. Royals, and I have another money-line pick for Mets vs. Phillies.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 5:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Clarke Schmidt (2.85 ERA) vs. Seth Lugo (3.00 ERA)

This is my favorite play of the postseason so far.

It’s hard to find value with sharp lines in the playoffs, and this is the first line that was a full run-off of what I’d make it. I expected this total to open at 8.5, maybe even 9. Instead, it opened at 7.5, and I jumped on it as soon as the line opened.

Before we discuss the matchup, let’s examine the run environment at Kauffman Stadium. We all know Coors Field in Colorado is the best park to hit in, and Baseball Savant ranks it the number one ballpark with a park factor of 112.

T-Mobile Park in Seattle is the worst for scoring runs, with a park factor of 91. Don’t be fooled by Yankee Stadium’s short porch; the stadium has a park factor of 100, which is the middle of the pack.

The top five stadiums to hit this year were Colorado, Boston, Cincinnati, and then Kansas City at number four. It’s an excellent place to hit, and the Royals love hitting there. We also have some wind blowing out between 5-10 MPH. It’s nothing major, but it only helps the offense.

The Royals are a tale of two splits. At home this season, they have a .741 OPS compared to a .679 OPS on the road. Against right-handed pitching at home, they have a .763 OPS, the ninth-highest in baseball. Against lefties at home, the OPS drops to .665. The best matchup for the Royals is facing a right-handed pitcher at home.

Nobody has a higher OPS and wRC+ against righties as a team than the Yankees. They are the best offense in baseball in that split. The Yankees were also the only team with 50 wins or more on the road this year, and they have the second-highest OPS in the league, just behind the Dodgers, against righties on the road.

In this run environment with these offenses, Cole Ragans against Gerrit Cole would be the only matchup to warrant a 7.5 total.

Seth Lugo has had a fantastic year, but I’m not putting him in the ace category. I didn’t think he looked great against the Orioles, allowing one run in 4.1 innings while allowing five hits. That Orioles team couldn’t hit water if they fell off a boat, yet they timed him well.

Seth Lugo has two seven-inning starts against the Yankees this year. One was incredible, the other wasn’t. His most recent outing was a seven-inning, three-hit shutout. Back in June, he allowed four runs in seven innings. The shutout came in Yankee Stadium, and the four-run outing came in Kansas City. Everyone loves hitting in Kansas City!

Clarke Schmidt is very talented, and as a Yankee fan, I love the guy. However, he hasn’t been sharp since returning to the rotation in September. He does have a 3.65 ERA for the month, but he never went six innings once. He allowed at least three runs in his last three starts. He’s only made two postseason appearances out of the bullpen and has allowed three runs in two innings.

Both bullpens are solid, but after seeing these arms for the third time, we should see some runs in the later innings. The Yankees have seen Zerpa, Schreiber, and Erceg, and the Royals have seen Weaver, Khanle, Holmes, and Hill twice. They are great arms, but I trust the offenses to adjust.

This game ends closer to the 6-5 score from Game 1. When it opened, I risked to win 1.5 units on this at 7.5, and it has since moved to eight. I would make this a typical one-unit play at 8.

The Pick: Yankees vs Royals Over 7.5 (-115) Risk 1.72 U to win 1.5 Units

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets @ 5:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Ranger Suarez (3.46 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA)

I think the Phillies are done.

We’ll review the numbers and everything, but that was my immediate reaction after watching game three.

They came back for a fantastic win in game two, but the Mets have dominated this series outside of that. The Mets also know they have a date with Zack Wheeler for game five in Philadelphia if they lose. While the Phillies are on the brink of elimination, the Mets will do everything they can to avoid Wheeler at the Bank, and I think they will do just that.

It pains me to do this because I think the world of Ranger Suarez. We have bet on him many times in the playoffs and ended up on top most of the time. I love the man, but I’ve also said this 100 times. When Ranger is on a heater, you tail him and don’t think twice. When Ranger is not on a heater, it’s time to fade. H

Suarez is a tale of two halves. He started the year on a tear and finished the first half with a 2.76 ERA. That is the Ranger we know and love. The second half was riddled with injuries, and he wasn’t effective, putting up a 5.65 ERA.

The month of September was especially rough for Ranger. He averaged just over four innings a start and put up a 6.04 ERA. I love Ranger so much that even if his last start was a good one, I’d be weary of fading him. It was the worst start of the month, going two innings and allowing six runs to the Nationals.

He’s a guy who feeds off momentum, and when you mess with that, things can go south. He has a 3.95 career ERA with six days of rest or more, which isn’t bad, but it’s worse than his 3.34 ERA on regular rest.

Jose Quintana is on a different path right now; the man is on a heater. He put up a 3.18 ERA in the second half. In September, he threw 25 innings and allowed only two earned runs for a 0.72 ERA. He carried that into his first start against Milwaukee, tossing six shutout innings. He’s a veteran who doesn’t let the moment get to him.

He also has solid numbers against the Phillies historically. Over 199 PA against the Phillies’ current roster, he has posted a .245 opponent batting average with a .326 xwOBA. He faced the Phillies in September at the Bank, and it went beautifully, tossing seven shutout innings. He’s built for this.

It’s impossible to cap these bullpens. Neither team has complete confidence in either unit, and both teams can hit every arm. I’m banking on the Mets building a lead and finding a way to close it out.

The Phillies’ drop-off on the road is apparent. They went 41-40 this year on the road, and in their first test, they folded. I don’t see them magically bouncing back in this one. As long as the Mets are the underdog, they are the play.

The Pick: Mets ML (+100) Risk 1 Unit