Best MLB Player Prop for August 23, 2022
Welcome to MLB Player Props! Unfortunately, Jose Miranda didn’t show up like we thought, but we are back on the saddle today. I’m focusing on a specific player again due to this fantastic matchup. This prop isn’t ordinarily available in sports books, so I’ll be playing this on PrizePicks.
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Josh Rojas over 7.5 Fantasy Score or Over 1.5 Hits & Walks
With Jonathan Heasley returning from the IL to start for the Royals today, who better to target than the guy who has been a hitting machine for Arizona lately?
Josh Rojas has been a great presence in this Diamondbacks lineup and is one of the few consistent hitters in the lineup. Heasley throws nearly 50% usage rate fastballs to left-handed bats. This plays perfectly into the hands of Rojas, a dominant fastball hitter. Heasley’s go-to offspeed pitches are the changeup and curve, which Rojas has been average against, but has shown promise, particularly against the changeup which is featured more against lefties.
Despite a .184 average against the pitch, he slugs .447 with three of his seven home runs on the year being off of changeups. Heasley ranks in the eighth or lower percentile in barrel percentage, hard hit percentage, xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA, so Rojas should be capable of squaring up anything he sees today.
Heasley is in the bottom 20% in the league in walk rate, which works for Rojas who is very patient at the plate, drawing a walk in five of his last seven games. This is a touch higher of a number than we have seen for Rojas’ fantasy score recently, but I expect a good day for this Diamondbacks offense against Heasley and the non-intimidating and slightly gassed Royals bullpen.
Note: The fantasy score opened at 7 and moved to 7.5, which is why the hits and walks are now a viable option as well if you would prefer that.