Welcome to MLB Player Props! We lost in our last article, but you know that means we are bouncing back. I’m focusing on a specific player today; I’m obsessed with this matchup. This prop isn’t ordinarily available in sports books, so I’ll be playing this on PrizePicks.
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Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins) over 1.5 Total Bases
Today I will be fading Cole Ragans, the young Rangers pitcher who has struggled with allowing hard contact over his first couple of major league starts.
Jose Miranda has seen the ball well recently, with hits in nine of his last ten games. He can hit a righty, but he’s attacking lefties well above average. On the surface, he has slight reverse splits with a .287 average vs. RHP and .278 vs. LHP, but his slugging percentage, OPS, and ISO have taken significant leaps as of late vs. left-handed pitching.
So far, Ragans has shown a weakness against left-handed hitters that he’s seen recently. Against righties, Ragans has an 80% fastball-changeup usage rate which is a solid matchup for Miranda. He has a two-run-value against the changeup, hitting .316 AVG with a 50% hard-hit rate. Miranda excels at sitting on the changeup and shooting it to the opposite field even when it is a well-located pitch.
Ragans big issue is that he doesn’t have a good command of the changeup, forcing him to pump fastballs in the zone that get crushed. This is an excellent matchup for Miranda, who has the power against lefties to get this in one swing. He and the rest of this Twins lineup, including guys like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, should be well-equipped to do some damage against Ragans today. The Twins overall should have a great day against this rookie southpaw on the road.