Welcome to MLB Player Props! Josh Rojas continues to win for us, recording two walks and a base-hit for an RBI to hit the fantasy score and the over 1.5 hits and walks. Today, I’m focusing on a specific player again due to this fantastic matchup. This prop isn’t ordinarily available in sports books, so I’ll be playing this on PrizePicks.
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Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 Total Bases
This is a matchup I have been looking forward to for a few days now. Randal Grichuk against a lefty who throws sinker-changeup in Coors is a perfect matchup for him. Is this any ordinary lefty? Absolutely not; Martin Perez has been great this year, especially on the road. But in Coors Field, his sinker and changeup that have been great all year won’t have the same effectiveness.
Those are the two pitches most affected by the altitude, and those are the pitches Grichuk wants to see. Against any lefty sinkerballer, Grichuk is the guy I always love to target for the Rockies. This is an even better matchup because he will see a changeup as the secondary pitch rather than the slider, which he doesn’t hit nearly as well as the changeup.
Grichuk has a three-run value against the sinker with a .325 batting average versus the pitch. He also has a run value of five against the changeup and is only batting .256 but slugging a whopping .615.
I look for significant gaps like that or increases in ISO when targeting total base props because that means an increased likelihood that he gets the two bases in a single swing. Perez will throw sinker-changeup about 60% of the time with a few appearances from his cutter, a pitch which Grichuk also has a .333 average against. This is a tough matchup for Perez against Grichuk today, and I will be looking to take advantage of it.