Welcome to MLB Player Props! Today, I’m focusing on three players because these are all excellent matchups. This prop isn’t ordinarily available in sports books, so I’ll be playing this on PrizePicks.
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Randy Arozarena Over 6.5 Fantasy Score, Over 0.5 Runs & RBI
Rich Hill is a very solid matchup for Randy today. Just like all Rays props and bets in general, this will be one I wait to punch in until the lineup drops. But some combination of Yandy Diaz, Manny Margot, and Harold Ramirez can be expected surrounding Arozarena in the lineup which I would be perfectly fine with.
Arozarena has hit .438 against lefties since the beginning of August and is in a good spot against Hill’s less-than-overpowering pitch mix. Strikeouts are the issue with Arozarena and while Hill had 11 strikeouts just last week against this lineup, his strikeout line opening at 4.5 and dropping to 3.5 tells me that won’t be much of an issue today.
Against Rich Hill, the question is how well you hit the curveball, as righties will see the pitch 42% of the time. Randy hits it well to the tune of a seven-run value with a .304 average and .643 slugging percentage. He is also surrounded by hitters in Diaz, Ramirez, and Margot who also have averages above .300 against the pitch. You can even include Christian Bethancourt, Isaac Paredes, and Jose Siri who have above a 40% hard-hit rate and .500 slugging percentage against curveballs.
For Randy specifically, Hill pitched him a few more fastballs in that last start which is fine for a player who won’t get a fastball blown by him like the ones he typically struggles with. He also hasn’t been afraid to run on the basepaths. He has four stolen bases in his last eight games, with three of the four being against lefties and one of them off of Rich Hill. Randy should be the centerpiece of this offense today in a game where one or two swings could decide it.
Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Runs & RBI
This one is simple, Eduardo Rodriguez is just a bad pitcher and this is a game the total is climbing from 7.5 to 8.5 with extremely hot hitters at the top of this Angels lineup. Rengifo will likely hit right behind Trout and Ohtani, and with the way they are seeing the ball recently, I have confidence in that there will be guys on base to Rengifo to drive in.
The biggest concern may honestly be if either of those guys clears the bases themselves. One thing that works on our side there is Rodriguez has eight walks in 15 innings since returning to the mound. We could see those guys get free passes from ERod not wanting to pitch to them, creating some RBI opportunities for Rengifo.
This isn’t all about the other guys either. Rengifo is hitting much better from the right side with a .336 average compared to just .242 from the left side. He also has seven of his eleven home runs against lefties in slightly less than half the at-bats.
While he is not the biggest power guy, he is still very capable of getting ahold of one, especially against a pitcher who will throw him nearly 70% fastballs. I expect him to be in run or RBI position a few times today against ERod and he will be in a good spot to capitalize.