Not Gambling Advice: Baseball Picks for Today — Odds, Bets & Lines (August 12, 2025)

I’m back.

It’s been a rollercoaster of a season. We started off the season red-hot, but over the last two months, we’ve been ice-cold. I took some time off to recalibrate my model as I was losing far more plays than I was releasing. I wasn’t betting the additional leans, but looking at the recommendations, it was a blood bath everywhere. Instead of pushing through it, I took a step back, re-did some things, and over the past week, it’s performed much better.

I’m ready to get back into it. We are dipping our toes back in the water with a plus money pitching outs prop.

2025 Record: 54-57 (+0.93 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants @ 9:45 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Padres: Nestor Cortes (7.11 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 12.2 Innings)

Giants: Robbie Ray (2.85 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 142 Innings)

Nasty Nestor made his return to the mound after being traded from the Brewers to the Padres at the trade deadline. It wasn’t the easiest matchup to drop him into. He faced off against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field, a near top-ten team against left-handed pitching.

The command wasn’t there for him, walking three and allowing two earned runs over 4.2 innings. He was removed from the game after just 76 pitches.

All of those factors are creating value on this line. Not only is this a much easier matchup in a more pitcher-friendly environment, but he now has a start under his belt. I don’t care about his 7.11 ERA over three starts; if he has his regular stuff, Nestor is much better than that.

Before we talk about any of that, let’s look at the Padres’ bullpen. They could use some length out of Nestor today. Jeremiah Estrada and Robert Suarez have both thrown over 43 pitches over the last three days, so they’d be working their third day in the previous four if they came into this one.

If Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, or Mason Miller come in, they are also working their third game in four days. Those are the five best relievers on the Padres.

Wandy Peralta threw 32 pitches on Saturday. He’s good to go today, but that’s still a lot of pitches. David Morgan will be available, but he threw 19 pitches on Sunday. Yuki Matsui will pitch in this one, as he’s the only truly fresh reliever.

That tells me the only way Nestor doesn’t get here is if he’s inefficient or he gets hit around the ballpark. I have serious doubts about the latter.

The Giants are one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, and it’s been that way all year. MacKenzie Gore was going through a horrible stretch, but he had a date with the Giants and dominated. It’s a trend; if you’re a lefty, you want to face the Giants.

San Francisco is tied with the Rockies for the worst wRC+ in baseball against southpaws this year and the single worst OPS at just .610. After the All-Star break, it’s been even worse, as they sit with a .549 OPS and a 58 wRC+, both the worst marks in the league. Not surprised Nestor’s earned run line is heavily juiced to the under.

Will Nestor pitch well, but do it inefficiently? It’s certainly possible, but in this ballpark against this lineup, I believe he can lock in. Over his last two rehab starts in AAA, he went 5.1 innings and 5.2 innings. He only walked three batters over 11 innings while striking out 12. He threw 93 pitches in his last rehab start, so his first start at 76 was more of him not throwing well.

Four pitchers have recorded at least 16 outs in a row against San Francisco. Darvish went six innings in 84 pitches last night. Gore and Brad Lord also went six innings, and Jake Irvin got hit around and still recorded 16 outs. As long as Nestor is reasonably efficient, he should eat some innings here.

Nestor was over this line in 18 of his 30 starts (60%) in 2024. In 2024, he averaged 17 outs per start with a median of 16. Considering how far he progressed in his rehab start, along with the favorable matchup in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, I’m bullish on Nestor’s performance today. If I project 90 pitches thrown, I project 16 outs, making this line closer to -115 (53.5% chance of hitting).

At +125 (44.4% implied odds), this is showing a solid chunk of value. Bring us home, Nasty Nestor.

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