Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Clay Holmes
Clay Holmes hits free agency in a different position than two years ago. This time he's an established starter and a big-name arm.
Clay Holmes hits free agency in a much different position than he did two years ago. The former New York Yankees closer has successfully transitioned into a starting pitcher, giving teams an established rotation option beyond the biggest names on the market.
Holmes declined his $12 million player option for 2027 after posting a 3.29 ERA across 101 1/3 innings with the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs. A fractured right fibula interrupted his season, but he returned in August and made nine starts for Chicago.
The 33-year-old doesn’t generate the strikeout totals of an ace, but his ability to induce groundballs has helped him limit damaging contact. He has recorded a 3.44 ERA over 267 innings since becoming a full-time starter.
His next contract will depend on how teams weigh that production against his age, injury history and uneven finish to 2026. Several clubs have openings in their rotations, and Holmes offers an alternative to the most expensive starters available.
Here are five potential landing spots for Holmes heading into 2027.
Free Agent Profile: Clay Holmes
- Age in 2027: 34
- 2026 Stats: 18 GS, 101.1 IP, 3.29 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 78 K, 42 BB
- 2026 Salary: $13 million
- Qualifying Offer Eligible: No
Contract Projection
- Projected Length: 2-4 years
- Expected AAV: $16-22 million
- Just Baseball Prediction: Three years, $54 million ($18 million AAV)
- Projected Team: New York Mets
Holmes spent most of his career in relief before signing a three-year, $38 million contract with the Mets ahead of 2025. New York gave him an opportunity to return to starting, a role he hadn’t regularly held since his minor league career.
He responded with a 3.53 ERA across 31 starts and a career-high 165 2/3 innings. Holmes carried that success into 2026 by relying on his sinker to keep hitters from elevating the baseball.
According to Baseball Savant, Holmes generated groundballs on 60.8% of batted balls last season. His sinker accounted for nearly half his pitches, while opponents hit just .154 against his sweeper and .186 against his changeup.
He surrendered only six home runs in 101 1/3 innings. His 18.6% strikeout rate and 10.0% walk rate also make the defense behind him particularly important, as his success depends more on generating groundballs than missing bats.
The right-hander opened 2026 with a 2.39 ERA through nine starts before a 111.1 mph comebacker from Spencer Jones fractured his right fibula on May 15. The injury sidelined him for nearly three months and effectively ended his tenure in Queens.
New York traded Holmes and outfielder Tyrone Taylor to the Cubs at the deadline for highly regarded prospect Jefferson Rojas. He returned on August 8 but struggled to regain his early-season form, posting a 4.25 ERA across nine starts with Chicago. His sinker velocity declined, and his command became less consistent.
The injury did not involve his throwing arm, and Holmes had already demonstrated the ability to handle a starter’s workload in 2025. That should help his market, although teams will still have to account for his uneven finish.
In Just Baseball’s free-agent predictions, Ryan Finkelstein projects a three-year, $54 million contract for Holmes, with the Mets as his predicted destination.
That would be a substantial raise from his previous agreement. Holmes’ groundball-heavy approach could help him secure a third guaranteed year, particularly from a club confident in its infield defense.
He also comes without qualifying-offer compensation after being traded during the season, allowing interested teams to sign him without sacrificing draft capital.
Free Agent Landing Spots for Clay Holmes
New York Mets
A reunion with the Mets remains possible despite New York trading Holmes only a few months ago.
The organization originally signed him to become a starter, and the experiment paid off. Holmes was among the team’s most dependable pitchers before his injury in May, having carried a strong 2025 season into the opening weeks of 2026.
His departure brought New York a valuable prospect in Jefferson Rojas, but it doesn’t necessarily close the door on a return.
Before the deadline, Holmes expressed interest in remaining with the Mets, while the organization reportedly had not ruled out an extension. The sides had not entered formal negotiations as of late July, and Holmes was eventually traded.
New York still needs starting pitching. President of baseball operations David Stearns has identified the rotation as a leading offseason priority following a disappointing 2026 season.
Nolan McLean emerged as a promising young starter, but the Mets need more established innings around him. They could pursue a premier free agent such as Tarik Skubal while addressing other rotation openings with more affordable veterans.
Holmes’ familiarity gives him an edge that few other pitchers can match. New York helped him transition to starting, and he has already proven himself successful in their rotation.
Bringing him back at Just Baseball’s projected $18 million annual salary would require a larger commitment than his original contract. The Mets would also have to determine whether they prefer Holmes’ contact-oriented approach or a pitcher with greater strikeout potential.
Still, the organization could retain Rojas from the deadline trade while bringing Holmes back through free agency. That possibility makes a reunion particularly interesting.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have emerged as one of the few credible destinations for Holmes following new reporting from the GM Meetings.
San Diego has considerable rotation uncertainty as December approaches. Michael King and Nick Pivetta reached free agency, while Joe Musgrove’s workload remains a question following Tommy John surgery. Yu Darvish’s future is unresolved after spending 2026 on the restricted list.
Randy Vásquez is among the few returning pitchers with an established starting role. The Padres signed Ryan Weiss to a one-year deal on November 10, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller still has multiple openings to address.
According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Holmes is among the free-agent pitchers the Padres have identified as legitimate targets.
San Diego has also inquired about more expensive options, including Skubal and Freddy Peralta, while maintaining interest in bringing back King and Pivetta. Those discussions remain preliminary, with no indication that Holmes is involved in advanced negotiations.
Holmes would offer a less expensive alternative to King while helping fill another rotation opening. The two right-handers succeed differently, with King generating more strikeouts and Holmes relying heavily on groundballs.
Petco Park could provide a favorable setting for his approach, particularly given his ability to limit home runs.
The greater concern is whether Holmes can provide enough innings. He threw 165 2/3 innings in 2025 but was limited to 101 1/3 last season. San Diego needs pitchers capable of replacing substantial workloads, not simply additional names for its rotation.
The Padres have a definitive need and reported interest. Their willingness to explore different price ranges makes Holmes a legitimate candidate as Preller works to rebuild the rotation.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have reason to consider bringing Holmes back after acquiring him from the Mets at the trade deadline.
Chicago surrendered Rojas in a deal that also brought outfielder Tyrone Taylor to Wrigley Field. Holmes made nine starts with the Cubs, posting a 4.25 ERA, but did not receive a postseason start.
His late-season results were inconsistent, although the organization gained a firsthand look working with him following his injury.
Chicago’s defense is particularly appealing for a pitcher who generates groundballs at Holmes’ rate.
The Cubs finished 2026 with a Statcast-era record 72 Outs Above Average. With Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Alex Bregman, the club has accomplished defenders across the infield, making it a favorable environment for Holmes’ contact-oriented approach.
The rotation also needs considerable attention. Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Kevin Gausman and David Peterson joined Holmes in free agency, leaving president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer with several openings to fill.
According to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, Chicago intends to explore bringing back Holmes and Peterson as it evaluates the starting-pitching market. General manager Carter Hawkins has also left the door open to reunions with the club’s departing free agents.
Re-signing Holmes would address one rotation opening while leaving Chicago to pursue additional starters.
There are reasons for caution. Holmes’ sinker velocity declined following his injury, and his strikeout and walk rates worsened after the trade. Chicago cannot assume a full offseason of recovery will resolve those issues.
Even with those concerns, few teams can offer Holmes a better defensive fit. The Cubs already know how he works within their pitching staff, and his ability to generate groundballs could play particularly well behind their infield.
The question is whether Chicago values that familiarity enough to commit multiple years after his uneven finish.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox exceeded expectations in 2026, reaching the postseason for the first time since 2021. Their lack of consistent starting pitching nevertheless became increasingly apparent as the season progressed.
Chicago received just 674 2/3 innings from its starters, the fewest in Major League Baseball. Manager Will Venable frequently relied on openers and multi-inning relievers, an approach that carried into October.
General manager Chris Getz has made improving the rotation his top offseason priority.
At the GM Meetings in Las Vegas, Getz confirmed that Grant Taylor will transition into the starting rotation in 2027, while Hagen Smith remains in a multi-inning relief role. Chicago is also looking to acquire an established starter capable of contributing toward the middle or top of its rotation.
Holmes has a documented connection to the organization.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale linked the White Sox to Holmes ahead of the July trade deadline, although the specific scouting activity described in that initial report was questioned.
MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo later confirmed that White Sox scouts attended Holmes’ July 28 rehab start with Single-A St. Lucie, where he threw four scoreless innings and 59 pitches.
That evaluation gives Chicago a more substantial connection than a speculative offseason fit, although no renewed interest or negotiations have been publicly confirmed.
Holmes’ pitching style also offers an interesting match for the roster.
Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth both graded favorably in Outs Above Average during 2026. Holmes’ groundball tendencies could complement that young middle infield while giving the rotation an experienced starter.
The financial commitment would be significant. Andrew Benintendi’s five-year, $75 million agreement remains the largest free-agent contract in franchise history. Holmes would fall below that total at Just Baseball’s projected three-year, $54 million price, but the deal would still represent one of Chicago’s larger free-agent investments.
He could join Sean Burke and Taylor in a rotation that needs greater stability, though Holmes profiles more naturally as a middle-of-the-rotation starter than the frontline arm Getz has also expressed interest in acquiring.
His abbreviated 2026 season is concerning for a team hoping to move away from its reliance on bullpen games. Chicago would have to determine whether Holmes could reasonably return to providing the 160-plus innings he delivered in 2025.
The White Sox have other needs to address, and Holmes may not be their biggest addition this winter. His previous connection to the organization and potential fit make him a name worth monitoring as Getz pursues established pitching help.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants need to improve their pitching staff after finishing 2026 with 97 losses.
Logan Webb, Landen Roupp and Adrian Houser are among the organization’s rotation options for 2027, but injuries have depleted its depth. Four young starters underwent Tommy John surgery during the season. Hayden Birdsong could return next year, while Carson Whisenhunt, Trevor McDonald and Blade Tidwell face longer recoveries.
San Francisco has already been connected to Holmes as a possible destination through local analysis.
Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle included him among the free agents worth considering.
Holmes’ pitching style is an interesting comparison to Webb, who has built a successful career around generating groundballs. The two are not identical, and Holmes doesn’t have Webb’s durability, but they share an approach that emphasizes keeping hitters from elevating the baseball.
Oracle Park could provide another advantage for a pitcher who has been effective at limiting home runs.
Holmes’ qualifying-offer status also makes him an interesting fit for San Francisco.
President of baseball operations Buster Posey expressed reluctance during the GM Meetings to sacrifice draft picks for free agents who received qualifying offers.
Because Holmes was traded during the season, he is ineligible for one. The Giants could sign him without giving up draft capital, allowing them to improve the major league roster while protecting their farm system.
The remaining consideration is contract length.
San Francisco must balance immediate pitching needs against the development of its younger arms. A shorter agreement would reduce the risk of committing to a starter entering his age-34 season, although Holmes could command a third guaranteed year elsewhere.
There have been no reports of direct negotiations between Holmes and the Giants. Still, his pitching approach and qualifying-offer status make him a reasonable option for Posey as he looks to improve the rotation without compromising the organization’s longer-term plans.
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Written by
Adrian White covers the Chicago White Sox for Just Baseball and FutureSox. He studies sports management at Florida Atlantic University and focuses on player development and…