Cubs vs. Padres: Wild Card Series Preview

In a rematch of the 2025 National League Wild Card Series, the Chicago Cubs will once again take on the San Diego Padres, only this time the series shifts to Petco Park.

The Padres surged down the stretch to claim the top Wild Card spot in the National League, while the Cubs stumbled through the final weeks of the regular season. Chicago spent much of the year looking like one of the league’s strongest teams, but injuries and inconsistent play tightened the race and ultimately sent them on the road to begin the playoffs.

Despite the different paths each team took to get here, there is plenty of familiarity between the two sides. The Cubs and Padres both feature deep lineups, with fairly even starting pitching matchups. However, there are clear areas where each team holds an advantage, setting up what should be a tightly contested three-game series.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Michael King vs. Matthew Boyd

• King: 32 GS, 185.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 159 K, 2.7 fWAR
• Boyd: 22 GS, 126.2 IP, 3.91 ERA, 96 K, 1.6 fWAR

Game 1 is always important, but this one is amplified. With the fluidity of the Cubs bullpen, taking the first game of the series would be huge for Chicago. As for the Padres, King is their ace, so not capitalizing on his game would be a serious cause for concern.

Michael King was once again very solid in 2026. He had his fifth consecutive season with a sub-3.50 ERA and made the most starts in a season of his career. He was excellent up until his final three starts, posting a 3.00 ERA. However, he ended his year with a 5.29 ERA across three starts.

He has limited postseason experience, though he has had success in his 15 career playoff innings. During those innings, he allowed just five earned runs with 19 strikeouts to just one walk. Still, his sustained regular season success has made him appear to be a solid option.

As for the Cubs, Matthew Boyd also struggled down the stretch before dialing back in late. From August 3 to September 13, he had a 5.18 ERA with just 29 strikeouts over 48.2 innings. He looked rough, to say the least, struggling to miss bats and keep the ball in the yard.

Then, his final two starts were much better. He gave up just one run in each while covering 12 innings. This may have been the deciding factor in giving him the first game. That, along with his postseason success, is very encouraging.

He has a career 1.66 ERA in the playoffs and 9.55 K/9 with appearances in each of the last two seasons. The Cubs trust him, and he has proven himself to them in the past.

With these two on the mound, the Padres have the advantage in Game 1. King has established himself as one of the top starters in the game, with the ability to provide plenty of innings.

How the Other Games Line Up

Neither team has set their starters for the other two games at this time, so let’s look at their options.

The Cubs can choose from Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and Shota Imanaga if they want to go with a traditional starter in the following games.

Of this group, Gausman has had the most recent big postseason success. In 2025, he helped lead the Blue Jays to the World Series and even started Game 6 for them. He appeared in six games and covered 30.2 innings for them, working a terrific 2.93 ERA.

If healthy, Gausman would be an obvious candidate to get the ball in Game 2. However, the Cubs are still monitoring soreness in his non-throwing shoulder after he injured it during his final regular season start.

Then you have Holmes and Peterson, who have both found playoff success. Smaller samples for both, and Holmes has never worked as a starter in October, but both have proven to play up to the moment. Peterson has been better down the stretch, but Holmes could still get the nod over him.

Finally, Imanaga, who always has his ups and downs and struggled in his brief taste of playoff baseball. However, he has arguably been their best starter as of late. Over his final five starts, he didn’t surrender more than two earned runs once.

The Cubs don’t lack options, and each has their upside, but nobody stands out. If two were most likely, Gausman and Holmes would make sense.

The Padres are in a similar situation to the Cubs.

The seemingly most likely scenario is that Nick Pivetta will go for them in Game 2. He has been solid for the Padres over the last two years, though he missed most of the season with injury. Still, he returned early in September and has not skipped a beat.

Pivetta has 18.2 career innings in the playoffs, with a very strong 2.89 ERA in those games. Even with his absence this season, he seems to be a strong option for San Diego.

If the series gets to a third game, their situation gets a bit messier. Both Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler are top candidates, though neither has stood out this year.

Randy Vásquez has the better regular season numbers, with a 3.59 ERA this year. The downside to him is that he’s had limited experience and success in postseason baseball. That is quite the opposite from Buehler.

While he did struggle this year, and has since his dominant 2021 campaign, he has logged 94.2 innings of playoff baseball in his career. In those innings, he owns a 3.04 ERA and 131 strikeouts.

The Padres have a few very different players in terms of past and present experience and performance, and each has a solid case to get the ball. However, given his track record, Buehler taking the mound seems to be the likelier of the two.

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How the Lineups Stack Up

The 2026 Chicago Cubs had one of the most dynamic lineups in baseball, with an elite combination of offense and defense. They feature key players like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman to lead the way, but really just lack holes in general.

They finished third in MLB in home runs and first in runs scored while also leading the sport in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value by a wide margin.

There is no shortage of talent on this Cubs team, and they have the ability to take over games on both sides of the ball. When they click, they are one of the scariest groups in the game.

The San Diego roster is also very solid. They were one of the better defensive units and certainly have the firepower in the batter’s box.

Led by Fernando Tatis Jr., this group is electric. They have proven they can step up in big moments and not back down from pressure. They have the production to back it up, as they finished ninth in team wRC+ this year and made a huge impact on the basepaths with 164 stolen bases.

The Cubs have the advantage here, no doubt, but if the Padres gain momentum, that group cannot be counted out. This series is primed to carry big moments with the number of big names and rising stars set to appear in it.

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The Bullpens

While the Cubs do have the upper hand when it comes to their lineup, the same cannot be said for their bullpen. They did rank 13th in bullpen ERA, though that was seemingly heavily impacted by their elite defense, as they were 26th in FIP.

Chicago relievers also surrendered the fifth most home runs during the regular season while striking out the fifth fewest batters. That is a combination that never bodes well, especially in October.

They had moments where they were solid, and that was when Jacob Webb was leading the way in the leverage innings. From June 24 to August 21, he didn’t allow a single run, and their pen had a very solid 3.72 ERA over that span.

Since then, Webb has a 9.90 ERA, and the bullpen blew eight saves over the final stretch of the season. If the Cubs want to make it deep into October, they will need Webb and the rest of the bullpen to provide some sort of stability.

On the other hand, the Padres bullpen is an elite group. They totaled 8.9 fWAR as a collective, which topped MLB, and have some of the best back-end arms around.

Mason Miller had a career year in 2026, with a 1.67 ERA and 129 strikeouts to just 26 walks in 70 innings pitched. He is the best closer in the game, and a near-sure thing to shut it down every time he takes the mound.

To go with Miller, they have Yuki Matsui, Jason Adam, Bradgley Rodriguez, and of course Adrian Morejon. A top-tier group, to say the least. Each of them is more than capable of throwing up zeros, and that will be a massive challenge for any opponent of theirs.

This is the Padres’ biggest strength, and it could be the difference in the series.

Prediction

This is an extremely evenly matched series, with each team excelling in certain areas and having advantages over the other.

For the Cubs, they will need their offense and defense to play like they have and their starters to cover a solid number of innings. The big question for them is whether or not their bullpen can step up and produce. If their relievers struggle, like we’ve seen at times, the series will be an uphill battle for Chicago, one that they may not be able to overcome.

The Padres have all the momentum right now. They enter the postseason having won 17 of their last 20 games and secured home field advantage for the Wild Card series. They have experienced players, but will need the rotation to step up and allow the bullpen to pitch with a lead.

It really feels like a toss-up between the two, but with the uncertainty surrounding the status of both the rotation and the bullpen for the Cubs, I’d lean the Padres in three in this rematch.