Padres vs. Cubs: Wild Card Series Preview

As we close in on the 2025 MLB Playoffs, it’s time to dive in and check out the upcoming Wild Card Series. The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres locked themselves in and became the first confirmed matchup in this year’s postseason.

The Cubs, owners of a 92-70 record in the regular season, enter October with a +144 run differential, which is second-best in the entire National League, trailing only the division rival Milwaukee Brewers, who wound up at +172.

With the Cubs’ victory on Saturday night, they clinched home field advantage in the upcoming Wild Card matchup against the Padres. For those that were around back then, the Cubs were actually the Padres’ first-ever playoff opponents all the way back in 1984. Now, in the year 2025, they prepare for a rematch.

Those very same Padres just wrapped up their own regular season with a 90-72 record. Their +81 run differential came in fifth in the NL and they finished the year with a 52-29 record at home. This bodes very well for the Cubs, since they won’t have to worry about the pesky Padres in their home park.

In the regular season, here’s where each team ranked in major offensive and pitching categories:

OFFENSE:	CUBS	PADRES
HR	223 (6th)	152 (28th)
RBI	771 (T-3rd)	663 (18th)
AVG	.249 (13th)	.252 (7th)
OBP	.320 (T-10th)	.321 (9th)
SLG	.430 (6th)	.390 (T-22nd)
OPS	.751 (7th)	.711 (16th)
wRC+	110 (6th)	102 (13th)
fWAR	31.1 (3rd)	20.5 (14th)
PITCHING:
ERA	3.81 (9th)	3.64 (3rd)
FIP	4.16 (20th)	4.02 (T-13th)
K%	21.4% (21st)	23.8% (T-4th)
BB%	6.9% (1st)	8.9% (T-23rd)
fWAR	13.4 (19th)	16.6 (11th)

Starting Pitching Matchups

*Not official at time of publication

ATLANTA, GA – JULY 15: Jason Adam #40 of the San Diego Padres and Matthew Boyd #16 of the Chicago Cubs walk out before the MLB All-Star Game at Truist Park on July 15, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images)

Game 1: Nick Pivetta vs. Matthew Boyd

Nick Pivetta (SDP): 31 GS, 13-5, 2.87 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 26.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, 3.7 fWAR
Matthew Boyd (CHC): 31 GS, 14-8, 3.21 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 21.4%, 5.8%, 3.4 fWAR

With only three spots available in a Wild Card rotation, not every starter on each team’s staff can be used in their regular roles.

For the Padres, there’s no other choice besides Pivetta, who’s easily been the team’s best starter. He finished in the top 10 in the league in ERA while sitting 13th in fWAR. The right-hander has been a decent-but-not-great pitcher for years now but really took a step forward in 2025.

Pivetta, 32, only made one start against the Cubs this season, and it came in his third outing of the year back in mid-April. In that game, he went six innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts and one walk, earning the win in the process.

The Cubs have yet to formally announce how their rotation will be set up during the Wild Card Series. With Cade Horton hitting the shelf (more on that in a moment), it’s going to be either Matthew Boyd or Shota Imanaga in each of the first two games.

For Game 1, we’re going with Boyd, who is only on the Cubs because of a dominant postseason showing last year. In three starts for last year’s Cleveland Guardians, the left-hander went a combined 11.2 innings and had a dazzling 0.77 ERA with 10.80 K/9 and no home runs allowed.

The 34-year-old made his first All-Star Game this year and was one of Chicago’s more consistent starters. Boyd started opposite Pivetta in that April 16 matchup, earning the loss. In that game, he went 5.1 innings with two runs allowed on six hits with three strikeouts and a pair of walks.

Game 2: Dylan Cease vs. Shota Imanaga

Dylan Cease (SDP): 32 GS, 8-12, 4.55 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 29.8 K%, 9.8 BB%, 3.4 fWAR
Shota Imanaga (CHC): 25 GS, 9-8, 3.73 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 20.6 K%, 4.6 BB%, 0.9 fWAR

While Dylan Cease struck out over 200 batters for the fifth straight season, his overall results continued what appears to be a strange every-other-year struggle for him. The right-hander was outstanding last year, but took a bit of a step back in 2025. Since becoming a full-time starting pitcher back in 2021, he’s never had less than 10 quality starts, but he finished this year with just eight.

If the Padres are going to be looking for strikeouts, Cease is their best option. In 32 starts, 17 of them saw him punch out 7+ batters. Even if the full-season numbers don’t look great, Cease saw nearly all of his numbers improve in the second half, and he’ll be heading into the playoffs fresh off of a five-inning start against the Milwaukee Brewers where he allowed one run and struck out eight.

Cease’s lone start against the Cubs this year saw him go 5.2 innings while allowing three runs (two earned) on seven hits, striking out six and walking one.

Imanaga was supposed to be the Cubs’ ace this year, but he struggled with inconsistencies and durability concerns. The left-hander is also entering the postseason on a long second-half cold spell. He had the seventh-highest second-half ERA in the majors and allowed the most home runs (20) by a long shot.

Even if Imanaga hasn’t had a scoreless start since July 19, he’s still capable of showing up for a one-game sprint and taking care of business. The Cubs haven’t gotten the consistency out of him that they needed this year, but they saw all the talent they needed to see last year.

The 32-year-old’s start against the Padres came on April 4, when he went 7.1 innings of one-run ball with four punchouts and no walks.

Game 3 (If Needed): Michael King vs. Colin Rea

Michael King (SDP): 15 GS, 5-3, 3.44 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 24.7 K%, 8.4 BB%, 0.8 fWAR
Colin Rea (CHC): 32 G (27 GS), 11-7, 3.95 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 19.2 K%, 6.6 BB%, 1.9 fWAR

If he were fully healthy, Michael King would be more in contention for a G2 start than a G3 one, but 2025 was an injury-riddled campaign. The right-hander fought through shoulder and knee inflammation and wound up missing all of June and July and most of August.

King made four September starts but he didn’t look like himself in most of them, so the Padres would be putting a lot of faith in him finding his way in a must-win playoff start. In the final 7.2 innings of the regular season, he didn’t allow a run across two starts, so keep that in mind.

Rea, 35, debuted all the way back in 2015 and to this point has never made a single playoff start. However, the Cubs would be foolish to not ride the hot hand. The right-hander went 5.1 innings or more in his final four starts of the year, including an epic 11-strikeout showing against the Reds on Sept. 18. He followed that outing up with a start against the Cardinals in which he went 5.2 shutout innings with seven strikeouts.

Rea has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, but he really found a way to dial it up late in the regular season. While fellow rotation mate Jameson Taillon had a 1.57 second-half ERA across six starts and 34.1 innings, so he could also eat some innings in this game. Pairing the two together could be lethal for the Cubs.

Key Storylines To Watch: Cubs

The Cubs’ rotation looks much different without Cade Horton

On Saturday, the Cubs’ starting rotation took a major hit when Cade Horton, one of the top candidates to win this year’s NL Rookie of the Year Award, hit the injured list. The right-hander went down with a right rib fracture and is likely not going to be available until late in the NLDS.

The Cubs have placed Cade Horton on the 15-Day IL with a right rib fracture.

He is out for the Wild Card series and the earliest he could return is Game 5 of the NLDS.

A crusher for the Cubs. pic.twitter.com/UONM7QLPK9
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) September 27, 2025

Of course, they’ve got to make it there first.

Horton had a 1.03 ERA in 12 second-half starts in the regular season, which would’ve had him sitting pretty to be Chicago’s G1 starter in the WC Series.

Imanaga, Javier Assad, Rea, and Boyd all had second-half ERAs north of 4.00, but, as previously mentioned, Rea ended his regular season on a high note, striking out 18 batters across 12.2 innings of one-run ball in his final two starts.

Also, don’t forget about that Jameson Taillon fella. In six second-half starts this year, he went 4-1 with a sparkling 1.57 ERA and 3.11 FIP through 34.1 innings of work.

Which version of PCA will show up?

In 95 first-half games this year, Pete Crow-Armstrong hit 25 home runs with 71 RBI, swiping 27 bases and posting a 131 wRC+. His glove has always been his top trait, but he was able to match that defensive production with one hell of an offensive showing. Pairing these two together looked to be turning him into one of the game’s best all-around players.

By now you’re well aware of the fact that he lost his touch in the second half. In 62 second-half games, he hit just .214 with six home runs, 24 RBI, and a 72 wRC+, striking out almost 26% of the time while walking under 5%.

While the Cubs have plenty of strong bats in the rest of their lineup, they only become much more dangerous if PCA can tap into some of that first-half magic.

Extensive playoff experience won’t hurt

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – SEPTEMBER 17: Justin Turner #3 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates the team’s 8-4 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates to clinch a spot in the National League Playoffs at PNC Park on September 17, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

The entire Cubs’ roster has lengthy postseason experience under their belt, and I find it hard to believe that’s going to hurt them any.

Carlos Santana: 30 G, 5 HR, 13 RBI, .205/.310/.375, .685 OPS
Dansby Swanson: 37 G, 5 HR, 15 RBI, .248/.297/.423, .721 OPS
Kyle Tucker: 64 G, 8 HR, 28 RBI, .229/.309/.376, .685 OPS
Justin Turner: 86 G, 13 HR, 42 RBI, .270/.370/.460, .830 OPS
Matthew Boyd: 4 G (3 GS), 12 IP, 0.75 ERA, 14 K, 7 BB
Drew Pomeranz: 9 G (1 GS), 11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 14 K, 6 BB
Ryan Pressly: 47 G, 14 SV, 45.1 IP, 2.78 ERA, 60 K, 15 BB

Don’t forget that Boyd’s three playoff starts last year are basically exactly what landed him his free agent contract with the Cubs. Those outings alone put his name on the map. Pomeranz’s mid-4.00’s ERA doesn’t instill much confidence in itself, but it’s also worth mentioning that his last six relief outings in the playoffs (2019-2020) have all been of the scoreless variety.

Key Storylines To Watch: Padres

How will the Padres handle the Cubs’ lefties?

The Padres had a tough time sizing up left-handed pitching throughout the regular season, which may not bode well for them entering the Wild Card Series. The club managed to post just a 96 wRC+ against southpaws, which ranks them ninth in the NL and 17th in the majors.

Manny Machado dominated lefties throughout the season, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth performed admirably, and newcomers Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano were the best of the bunch. That’s the positive side here.

The negative side includes a below-average Gavin Sheets, Jose Iglesias, Luis Arraez, and Jackson Merrill. All of these players had a wRC+ below 100 (which is league-average) against left-handers.

With Boyd and Imanaga leading the rotation, and a quartet of Caleb Thielbar, Pomeranz, Taylor Rogers, and Jordan Wicks all in line to make the postseason roster, there could be a lot of lefties Craig Counsell throws at the Padres.

How can the Padres fill Ramon Laureano’s absence?

Speaking of Laureano, he’s not going to be available during the upcoming series, as he broke his right index finger on Sept. 24. As of right now, the only confirmed news around this diagnosis is that he’s going to miss the first round of the playoffs. Laureano’s absence could very well hurt the Padres equally as much as Horton’s absence hurts the Cubs.

Laureano, 30, came over to the Padres at the deadline and proceeded to post an .812 OPS through 50 second-half games. Along the way, he hit nine home runs and drove in 30 runs while spending time at all three spots in the outfield.

It’s true that Laureano’s bat is going to be sorely missed in the Wild Card Series, but it’s also true that the Padres already have the necessary pieces on hand to absorb his loss … if they all perform the way they’re expected to.

The outfield should look like Sheets-Merrill-Tatis from left to right, with O’Hearn also available to step into a corner spot if needed. This group is nothing to scoff at. The lowest wRC+ of the bunch in this year’s second half belongs to Sheets, but even his 98 is oh-so-close to league-average. That should do just fine.

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s time to shine

There was a minute or two where it seemed like Merrill was going to be the next face of the Padres’ franchise, but it’s next to impossible to give that designation to anyone other than Tatis. Simply put, Tatis is San Diego baseball, and that’s not going to change anytime in the next decade.

Tatis, 26, has 13 career playoff games under his belt, and he’s been outstanding in his still-growing sample size. To date, he’s hit six home runs with 12 home runs, drawing eight walks next to nine strikeouts, and hitting .375/.474/.854 in 57 plate appearances.

That 1.328 OPS he’s sporting isn’t too shabby either. He’s still got plenty of work to do in his playoff career to be considered one of the all-time greats, but he’s off to one hell of a start. He certainly is helping his case but heading into the postseason with a 132 wRC+ in the second half, so he’s primed to continue to rake when the games matter the most.

Prediction

Cubs in Three

While the Padres continuously find ways to piece wins together, the Cubs feel like the team that’s going to come out on top. Even though there’s going to be a bit of uncertainty surrounding their starting rotation, this is an offense that immediately jumps on mistakes and doesn’t lay off the gas.

Expect the ever-dangerous Cubs offense to come out of the gates swinging and to make quick work of the Padres’ pitching staff. I think the Padres will be able to snag a game and force a G3, but the Cubs should be able to take care of business.