Just How ‘Final’ Is the AL Rookie of the Year Race?
Kevin McGonigle has been the favorite all year for AL Rookie of the Year. But could division foe Parker Messick steal it at the buzzer?
For most of the 2026 season, Kevin McGonigle has held a strong lead in the AL Rookie of the Year Race. McGonigle’s rookie campaign has been one of the best in MLB history. His 6.8 bWAR ranks tied for seventh all-time for rookie position player seasons.
Even with this historic first year, one other rookie still has a slight chance to steal it: Parker Messick. Messick has put up a superb rookie season as well and has led the Cleveland Guardians staff in a close AL Central division race. He could even finish as an AL Cy Young finalist.
It’ll certainly be a close vote, and could lead to a similar outcome as seen in the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year vote. Luis Gil won a close race over Colton Cowser, with just 2.9 bWAR, a 0.1 advantage over Cowser. Wilyer Abreu, 3.6 bWAR, and Wyatt Langford, 4.2 bWAR, finished even further down the ballot, at sixth and seventh.
What gives Messick an edge over Gil is how much more dominant he’s been. But what doesn’t play in his favor is just how great McGonigle has been all season. Could Messick still swoop in and take AL Rookie of the Year over McGonigle?
Ace-Level Rookie Campaign
In his biggest start of the season, Messick went six innings, giving up three runs and striking out eight in a win over the Chicago White Sox that pushed them into first in the AL Central. Over his last 13 starts, he’s posted a 2.21 ERA with 80 strikeouts and 8 quality starts.
His rookie year has seen him go 12-9 with a 2.57 ERA and 186 strikeouts, accumulating 5.8 bWAR, sixth-best among pitchers in MLB. The last rookie to start at least 30 games with a sub-2.60 ERA was Dwight Gooden in 1984. Being an ace of a staff is impressive in its own right, but doing it as a rookie is incredible.
What makes Messick such an impressive pitcher already is how great his fastball is. He’s throwing his fastball 41.2% of the time, and batters are hitting just .172 against it. Messick’s fastball has a 27 Run Value, tied for first in MLB with Jacob Misiorowski and Cam Schlittler’s fastballs.
What’s different about his compared to them is that his velocity is significantly lower, averaging 94.3 mph, under league average. He’s able to mix it into his six-pitch arsenal, forcing weak contact among hitters. Among qualified pitchers, his barrel of 5.1% is second-best in MLB, and his hard-hit % of 33.8% is eighth-best. Messick’s K% and BB% are well above league average as well, sitting at 26.2% and 6.6%, respectively.
In comparison to the last four starting pitchers to win Rookie of the Year, he stands out and has a strong case for the best season.
| Player | bWAR | ERA | W-L | Strikeouts |
| Parker Messick | 5.8 | 2.67 | 12-9 | 186 |
| Luis Gil | 2.9 | 3.50 | 15-7 | 171 |
| Paul Skenes | 5.8 | 1.96 | 11-3 | 170 |
| Michael Fulmer | 5.4 | 3.06 | 11-7 | 132 |
| Jacob deGrom | 3.5 | 2.69 | 9-6 | 144 |
What doesn’t help Messick, however, is how great his division rival, Kevin McGonigle, has been all season long.
An All-Time Rookie Season
Kevin McGonigle’s rookie season will end up being one of the best for a position player ever. He currently holds a 6.8 bWAR, tied for seventh-best all-time for rookie position players. For primary shortstops, he’s tied Troy Tulowitzki’s rookie season. Against position players in 2026, his bWAR ranks third in MLB and first in the American League.
He’s slashing .277/.378/.428 with 17 home runs and a 130 wRC+, second-best among primary shortstops (Elly De La Cruz). McGonigle’s chase rate sits at 19.2%, tied for third-best in MLB, and he rarely strikes out, with a K% of 13.5%. McGonigle is currently walking more than he strikes out, with 93 walks to 91 strikeouts. He’s able to hit all over the field, limiting how pitchers can effectively attack him.
At just 22, he’s excelling in the leadoff role. While leading off, he’s slashing .308/.409/.494 with a 156 wRC+, and scoring 61 of his 95 runs. He’s able to hit all over the field, limiting how pitchers can effectively attack him. Being able to have this kind of offensive production and discipline is incredibly impressive for a rookie, especially over the course of a full season.
One knock to McGonigle’s game so far is his defense. While it hasn’t been bad, it’s definitely something he can improve going forward. He currently holds an OAA of -4 with a FRV of -2. His arm is below average as well, ranking in the 27th percentile.
It’s way too early in his career, however, to stick him with a below-average defender label; there’s plenty of time for him to grow in that regard. Even if he were to stay as a below-average defender, the kind of offensive production he provides greatly outweighs those concerns.
Can Messick Still Win AL Rookie of the Year?
The odds all year have been with McGonigle, and are still with him in the final few games of the season. But there’s still a chance, and a way Messick could steal it away.
First, he’ll need to impress with his last start, or starts if he goes on short rest to close out the season. An elite start to close out your season can leave recency bias for voters, even if it’s supposed to be judged across the full season.
Next, if the Cleveland Guardians can win the AL Central. Currently a single game above the White Sox, winning the division, the same one McGonigle is in, can give him the edge. While it’s not valued as much as it once was, being one of the best players on a division-winning team can be important to some voters. That’ll especially be the case if his last start(s) are critical to how the Guardians finish in the standings.
Looking back on the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year race, Luis Gil won it closely over players who had extremely strong cases. Compared to Messick, Gil’s season just isn’t as impressive, and he ended up winning. It can even be said that Abreu and Langford, who ended sixth and seventh on that year’s ballot, were much more deserving candidates than any of the finalists.
While McGonigle and Messick are having better rookie seasons than every player on that ballot, it can be a sign for WAR not being the end all be all stat for certain voters.
Even looking back at Tulowitzki’s incredible rookie season in 2007, it’s comparable to McGonigle’s in many ways. Both shortstops led rookies in bWAR and were elite at getting on base in their first season. Tulowitzki still lost, however, as Ryan Braun’s offensive metrics were valued more than Tulowitzki’s all-around game.
Both races were decided by five points or less, with Braun winning by two while Gil won by five. It’s going to be a similar race this year as well, and the last few games might very well determine who wins it.
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