Can the Padres Rotation Be a Strength in September?
With a strong showing in the second half and arms on the mend, the Padres' rotation has gone from a weakness to a potential strength.
While sporting the worst offense in baseball, the San Diego Padres were simultaneously rolling out one of the worst rotations.
The rotation was a combination of Michael King, Walker Buehler, Randy Vásquez, Lucas Giolito, Germán Márquez, Griffin Canning, and JP Sears. And to make matters worse, Nick Pivetta went on the 60-day injured list on April 14 with right elbow inflammation and a flexor strain.
Not only was this rotation bad on paper, statistically, but it was too. Before the trade deadline, the Padres ranked 27th in starting pitcher ERA (4.66), 28th in innings pitched (507.2), and 30th in quality starts (18).
It got to a point where manager Craig Stammen implemented a “pitching chaos” strategy in July to piece together games. It would consist of an opener throwing one or two innings, then transitioning to a bulk reliever, with the back end finishing it out.
Clearly, this way of getting through games was unsustainable and needed to be addressed.
Thanks to A.J. Preller’s aggressiveness, he added two quality starting pitchers in Robbie Ray and Casey Mize. Since the deadline, the Padres rotation is now eighth in ERA (3.38), tied for third in quality starts (12), and 12th in innings pitched (125.0).
Better days appear to be ahead, too, with Joe Musgrove slated to return next week and Nick Pivetta progressing in his rehab process.
What Will the Padres Rotation Look Like in September?
Headlining the rotation is King, who hasn’t been the dominant Cy Young candidate we have seen in years past, but has been exactly what the Padres have needed.
Across 27 starts, King owns a 3.23 ERA with 135 strikeouts in 156 innings. He has struggled with walks at times, but without the stability he’s provided, this team wouldn’t be in the position it’s in currently.
Moving on to the next spots in the rotation will be the deadline acquisitions, Mize and Ray.
Mize’s tenure as a Padre has been very up and down. He got lit up to the tune of eight runs in 3.1 innings in his debut, then posted back-to-back quality starts, had a start cut short due to an ankle injury, and his most recent outing had mixed results.
Thankfully, he didn’t wind up spending any time on the injured list with the ankle injury and looked unbothered by it. Despite the bumps, Mize has shown why he was acquired by Preller.
As for Ray, he has shown his consistency, going at least five innings in three of his four starts while surrendering eight runs in that span. Overall, the Ray experience has been positive and worth trading for.
Filling out the rotation, assuming health, are Musgrove and Pivetta.
After suffering a setback while recovering from Tommy John surgery in Spring Training, Musgrove appears ready to return.
In his most recent rehab outing, he needed 60 pitches to get through five innings and threw 70 percent of his pitches for strikes. His velocity has returned, topping out at 95.5 mph while sitting at 94 mph.
There’s a high chance there will be rust to shake off, given the fact that Musgrove hasn’t thrown in a Major League game since October 2, 2024. Regardless, he appears to have made a full recovery and is ready to go. Given his history, there’s little reason to doubt he won’t be impactful upon return.
As for Pivetta, his setback came much more recently, when he was in the middle of a rehab appearance on Aug. 4 and walked off the mound in the middle of the first inning. Pivetta has resumed his rehab assignment, throwing three innings with Single-A Elsinore on Tuesday.
He’s likely going to need a few more outings to build up his pitch count and regain trust in himself.
The Team Now Has Depth
Depth in the Padres rotation wasn’t something that seemed possible, but now it is. If anyone in the rotation were to go down, there are guys the team can lean on in Walker Buehler and Randy Vásquez.
Buehler’s days of being a dominant pitcher are well behind him, but he’s been quietly putting together a solid stretch. In his last eight starts, he’s posted a 3.19 ERA with 30 strikeouts across 42.1 innings pitched. He’s been even better as of late, posting a quality start in three of his last four starts.
Vásquez’s season has showcased highs and lows, but like Buehler, he’s been piecing together starts. In the month of August, he owns a 2.57 ERA in 28 innings pitched, with two quality starts.
With this duo stepping up, the team can now potentially opt for a six-man rotation if they want to give Musgrove and Pivetta an extra day of rest.
Final Thoughts
With the deadline additions of Mize and Ray, and the return of Musgrove and Pivetta, there’s a good chance this will be one of the best rotations by mid-September.
Health will be the biggest key to that becoming a reality, but either way, Padres fans should feel infinitely more confident with this rotation.
Patience will need to be exercised with Musgrove and Pivetta, especially with Musgrove, given the amount of time he has missed.
Going from one of the worst rotations to potentially one of the best is a change that many teams experience in a season. Thankfully, that can be the case for the Padres in September.
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Written by
Ethan is an aspiring sports analyst who has a passion for all sports. He was a collegiate baseball player and is a recent San Diego State…