How Does Shohei Ohtani’s Injury Impact Dodgers’ Deadline Plan?

Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts recently delivered the news that Shohei Ohtani will be shut down from pitching indefinitely. Left knee irritation that first flared up in mid-June has failed to clear up despite rest and a lubricant injection received over the All-Star break.

Ohtani will remain in the lineup as the full-time designated hitter. When Ohtani hits, his left knee acts as his back pivot leg. When he pitches, his left knee serves as the forceful landing and bracing leg, which subjects it to extreme torque and impact.

Before the shutdown, Ohtani was putting together a dominant season on the mound. Over 14 starts, he registered an 85.2-inning workload with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, 95 strikeouts, and 26 walks.

At the plate, he continues to play at a four-time MVP level. Ohtani holds a .287/.394/.531 slash line with 22 home runs, 17 doubles, and 60 RBIs, generating a .925 OPS that ranks among the top seven marks in Major League Baseball.

Losing an ace-caliber arm right before August 3 would trigger panic for almost any other front office in baseball.

The Dodgers sit at 64-38 with an 11.5-game cushion in the National League West. They boast the best record in the National League, the highest run differential in the sport, and, as is often pointed out, an embarrassment of riches and depth between the major league roster and their farm system.

Because of this cushion, Andrew Friedman and the front office can afford to wait out the market. The organization does not need to overpay to secure playoff positioning.

Stats update prior to games on July 22.

Dissecting the Rotation: Injured Stars and Active Arms

Yoshinobu Yamamoto anchors the rotation as the active ace with 18 starts under his belt (14 quality starts). The elite depth behind him is currently working its way back from the injured list.

Blake Snell has missed nearly the entire season after making just one start on May 9 against the Braves, where he allowed four earned runs over three innings with five strikeouts.

After having loose bodies removed from his left elbow, Snell began a Triple-A rehab assignment with Oklahoma City. He threw 32 pitches across four outs in his first outing and is stretching out toward a 75-pitch threshold. He is targeted to return shortly after the trade deadline.

Tyler Glasnow remains on the 60-day injured list with persistent lower-back spasms. Before going down in early May, Glasnow was dominant, posting a 3-0 record with a 2.72 ERA and 49 strikeouts in seven starts.

He recently completed a second successful bullpen session at Dodger Stadium, progressing toward facing live hitters. While he requires a full minor league rehab stint, the club targets a late-August return to have him primed for October.

While waiting on Snell and Glasnow, the Dodgers have pieced together quality production from a mix of veterans, young’uns, and swingmen.

Roki Sasaki has made 17 starts, posting a 4.98 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, 85 strikeouts, and 19 home runs allowed in 86.2 innings. While pitching through a roller coaster season, featuring blowup starts against the likes of the White Sox and Padres, Sasaki recently flashed his ceiling by dialing up to 102 mph over 5.2 scoreless innings at Yankee Stadium.

After the All-Star break, it’s not all that surprising that Sasaki found a little extra “oomph” in the tank, but it remains to be seen if he can keep that up, as he has been prone to mechanical inconsistencies that lead to dips in command and velocity.

Eric Lauer has stabilized the back end since being acquired from Toronto in late May. After posting a 6.69 ERA in six starts with the Blue Jays, Lauer has turned it around in Los Angeles, going 3-0 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over six starts. Home runs remain a vulnerability (18 allowed on the year), but he has given the team reliable length.

Justin Wrobleski has been the unexpected force, compiling 15 starts and posting a sub-3.00 ERA over his first 100-plus major league innings, earning an All-Star nod in the process.

Emmet Sheehan has logged 17 starts, though his performance has fluctuated between equal parts dominant outings, rough exits, and standard fare.

Landon Knack returned from the injured list on July 11 after missing time with a shoulder issue. The 29-year-old righty has made two relief appearances, allowing four runs over five innings. Knack brings postseason experience, having thrown seven playoff innings during the 2024 World Series run.

Ben Casparius remains on the 60-day injured list due to right shoulder inflammation after landing on the IL in April. While he was recently cleared to begin a throwing program at the complex in Arizona, he remains without a clear timeline for a big league return after making five early-season relief appearances (9.64 ERA).

River Ryan continues his recovery from a minor league hamstring strain, giving the team another high-upside arm waiting in Triple-A, but likely will be confined to the bullpen should he come up down the stretch of this season.

Could One Trade Solve Two Problems? 

Starting catcher Will Smith remains sidelined until mid-August while recovering from an inflamed disc in his neck, which has shut him down from all baseball activity. 

Second-year backstop Dalton Rushing has handled the increased workload mostly well. Rushing owns a .247 average with 10 home runs, 30 RBIs, and a 120 wRC+ that ranks sixth among all major league catchers with at least 200 plate appearances. 

Los Angeles could benefit from adding another right-handed bat if Smith’s recovery stretches into September. This has opened the door to considerations for adding catching help.

One blockbuster that checks both boxes would be a package with the Minnesota Twins centered around right-hander Joe Ryan and catcher Ryan Jeffers.  

Ryan would immediately slot near the top of the Dodgers’ postseason rotation, while Jeffers would provide right-handed power and could form a natural platoon with Rushing until Smith returns. Even after Smith is healthy, Jeffers would give Los Angeles another proven bat for a deep October roster.

It would not be a cheap acquisition, but if the Twins decide to sell, Ryan and Jeffers represent perhaps the cleanest fit of any package available. 

And whether the Twins decide to sell is certainly an “if” right now. Minnesota got hot going into the All-Star break, and because the American League is so wide open right now, they could decide to hold on to these prized possessions and make a push. 

The front office may also explore right-handed hitting catching upgrades like Jonah Heim of the Athletics, or Francisco Alvarez of the Mets, but they have no plans to surrender top talent for a starting catcher unless it’s a perfect fit.

Pitching Trade Targets Aside From Tarik Skubal & Joe Ryan 

While Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal dominates headlines, Detroit’s recent 10-4 run in July has pulled them within 4.5 games of an AL Wild Card spot. That resurgence makes a Skubal deal far less certain.

Even if the Tigers listened, the asking price would almost certainly begin with elite prospects Los Angeles has shown no interest in moving.

If the Dodgers opted for depth instead, who could that look like?

Brady Singer (RHP, Cincinnati Reds): Singer has turned his season around since June, posting a 2.76 ERA over his past eight starts. With roughly $4 million remaining on his contract before hitting free agency, Singer represents a solid back-of-the-rotation target, but he would not solve the uncertainty surrounding October. Plus, the underlying numbers are not promising.

Counting on Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and eventually Shohei Ohtani to all stay healthy through a postseason run is asking a lot, especially considering each has dealt with significant injuries over the past two seasons. That is why the Dodgers should target another legitimate playoff-caliber starter.

Foster Griffin (LHP, Washington Nationals): He doesn’t have the track record or the postseason experience, but it’s hard to deny the first-time All-Star southpaw who is having a career year, posting a 2.68 ERA over 19 starts. 

Griffin has been virtually unhittable over his past 10 starts (1.47 ERA) and is owed less than $2 million on an expiring contract. He represents an affordable, high-floor target who wouldn’t drain the farm system.

Casey Mize (RHP, Detroit Tigers): If the Tigers refuse to trade Skubal, they might still entertain offers for Mize. The former top pick is a pending free agent enjoying a solid bounce-back season and would cost significantly less in prospect capital.

Reid Detmers (LHP, Los Angeles Angels) or José Soriano (RHP, LAA): If the Twins, Tigers, and Nationals decide to hold on to the likes of Skubal, Mize, Ryan, and Griffin, or demand a package the Dodgers are not willing to part with, LAD could target one of two LAA arms.

Both arms remain under team control through 2028, making them highly desirable for controllable pitching depth. Detmers has shown high-strikeout upside, while Soriano offers heavy groundball rates. 

Both possess significantly higher ceilings than a typical rental, and a rebuilding Angels club under new leadership could finally become more willing to discuss long-term pieces despite the crosstown rivalry.

Los Angeles does not want to move franchise cornerstones like Josue De Paula or Zyhir Hope, but dealing from its surplus of outfield talent makes sense. 

Eduardo Quintero, Mike Sirota, Hope and De Paula have created one of the deepest outfield pipelines in baseball, making prospects like Charles Davalan or James Tibbs III expendable despite both being highly regarded. Neither sits at the very top of the organization’s loaded outfield hierarchy. 

Predicting the Dodgers’ Deadline Approach

Three weeks ago, the Dodgers could reasonably convince themselves that simply getting healthy would be enough. Losing one of the best pitchers in baseball, even temporarily, makes that a much riskier bet.

That does not mean Andrew Friedman should empty the farm for Tarik Skubal.

It does mean Los Angeles should be aggressive in pursuing another legitimate starter who could take the ball in October alongside Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Joe Ryan remains the cleanest fit if Minnesota becomes a seller. Foster Griffin and Casey Mize also make plenty of sense, while controllable options like Reid Detmers or José Soriano could become attractive alternatives.

The Dodgers are playing at a 100-win pace, own a double-digit division lead and have Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and several other pitchers expected back later this season, no matter what happens with Ohtani. That luxury allows Friedman to be patient, but patience should not be confused with complacency.

The Dodgers have enough depth to win another division title without making a move.

Yet, winning a third consecutive World Series may require adding one more impact arm. That’s where I expect Los Angeles to focus between now and the deadline.