The Young Pirate Hitting His Way Into Rookie of the Year Talks
Pirates rookie Esmerlyn Valdez has been one of MLB's hottest hitters, quickly emerging as a legitimate NL Rookie of the Year candidate.
The 2025 season was a whirlwind for Esmerlyn Valdez, and one that got little attention in the headlines. While a 19-year-old Konnor Griffin broke out and transcended to the top of prospect rankings around the industry, Valdez quietly raked in silence, becoming the MVP of the South Atlantic League, crushing the Arizona Fall League, and overall hitting like one of the best prospects in the minor leagues.
Fast forward a year, and Valdez’s next breakout is garnering a little more attention than his first, as he’s quickly become a key reason the Pittsburgh Pirates have been able to stay afloat despite multiple devastating injuries. Valdez has served as an anchor for this team offensively, coming through in the clutch more times in 32 big league games than most players around the sport have all season long.
With more than 120 plate appearances under his belt, what started as a fun story about an intriguing prospect has turned into a conversation about whether he could take home some hardware.
If Valdez continues to hit at this current pace, the National League Rookie of the Year Award is certainly within reach, especially given how the field is currently laid out. There is a conversation to be had surrounding how he’s stacked up against his competition, and if he finishes the second half as strongly as his first 32 games, his case will only become stronger.
Let’s dive in, evaluate his performance to this point, and see if Valdez could actually have a chance to take home this award.
Stats were taken prior to play on July 21.
Valdez’s Excellent Start
Despite only playing in 32 games up until this point, Valdez has been nothing shy of incredible for the Pirates. Through this span, Valdez has slashed .306/.377/.750 with 13 homers, 34 RBI, and a 196 wRC+. This is a ridiculous stretch for any player, let alone a rookie.
In fact, Valdez was the only rookie in Pirates history with 10 home runs through their first 28 games, which speaks to the historical side of this incredible stretch. For a team that’s historically struggled in the power department, having a player like Valdez come out of the farm system has been a great addition.
On top of this, Valdez’s current play becomes even more impressive when you remember that he was optioned on May 28 before being recalled again on June 11. Since being recalled back to the major leagues, Valdez has slashed an absurd .337/.404/.793 with 11 homers, 29 RBI, and a ridiculous 214 wRC+.
Expanding back out, even though he’s only appeared in 32 games to this point, Valdez has already racked up 1.8 fWAR, which already ranks him among the top producers on the team. He’s already generated more fWAR than Ryan O’Hearn, Jake Mangum, Griffin, and Spencer Horwitz, and Valdez has far fewer games played compared to most of those names.
While the surface-level numbers are all certainly impressive, Valdez has registered some truly mind-boggling underlying metrics while in the big leagues as well. For starters, he currently possesses a 28.6% barrel rate, which is the highest mark in baseball for hitters with at least 50 batted ball events.
Out of hitters with at least 50 batted ball events, the only one who comes close to Valdez is James Wood, whose barrel rate still falls over eight percentage points shy of Valdez’s.
In addition to a barrel rate that seems like it should belong in MLB The Show, Valdez posted a ludicrous hard-hit rate just shy of 56% and an average exit velocity over 93 mph. He’s also improving his approach, only chasing out of the zone at a 24.5% clip.
As if Valdez’s offensive production wasn’t impressive enough already, he’s actually been a welcome surprise on defense. So far this season, Valdez has registered +2 outs above average in right field, which is extremely impressive considering that his glove was considered his one major weakness.
To put it simply, Valdez is currently doing things that haven’t been done before in Pirates history, and he’s been a force on offense every time he’s stepped onto the field. With ridiculous power numbers, an improving approach, and a glove that’s been a positive in right field, the Pirates are getting everything they could have asked for from the 22-year-old and more.
Comparing Valdez To His Competition
Now that we’ve laid the groundwork for Valdez’s tremendous 2026 campaign up until this point, we can now start to compare him to his peers to see if he actually has a shot to win NL Rookie of the Year. He has some tough competition, but he stacks up quite nicely to this point.
Among all rookies with at least 120 plate appearances, Valdez is first in average, slugging, wOBA, and wRC+. For most of these categories, the race isn’t particularly close, especially among his National League peers.
When it comes to wRC+, Valdez’s 196 mark is nearly 50 points higher than the next-best rookie, Munetaka Murakami. This is a gap that becomes even larger when comparing him to NL rookies only, as Valdez currently sits 61 points above the next-best hitter, Bryce Eldridge.
Valdez is the only rookie in baseball whose wOBA is above .400, a threshold that he clears by more than 60 points. The next closest NL hitter is TJ Rumfield, and Valdez surpasses him by 90 points. No matter which way you examine the data, the gap between Valdez and his competition is quite wide.
Throughout this entire comparison, the elephant in the room is Valdez’s smaller sample size, as his numbers could be inflated by his small time in the big leagues. While this is a fair point to make, the most convincing argument in support of Valdez is that he’s already racked up 1.8 fWAR, a feat that only eight rookies in baseball have accomplished.
Among all the rookies in this group, Valdez has played 32 fewer games than the player with the second-fewest games played (Murakami, 1.9 fWAR), making his value stand out even more. Producing comparable value in far fewer games only strengthens his case.
Despite his smaller sample size being a significant drawback for the time being, if he can maintain even a portion of this production over the remainder of the season, his combination of elite offensive numbers and impressive efficiency could give him a serious case for the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Does Valdez Have a Real Shot to Win the Award?
The answer to whether Valdez has a real shot at winning the award is a resounding yes, but the remainder of the season will determine just how legitimate his case becomes.
Rookie of the Year races are often shaped by consistency and playing time, and Valdez will need to prove that his first 32 games are not simply a small-sample surge. However, the foundation he’s built is about as impressive as any rookie could hope for.
The biggest challenge for Valdez will be holding steady throughout the rest of the season and simply getting more games under his belt. Valdez has 61 games remaining in the season to expand his sample size, and if he continues to hit, he’ll be in the discussion for the award at the very least, even if he doesn’t have the time needed to rack up the counting stats that many of his peers have had more time to accumulate.
Regardless of whether or not Valdez takes home any hardware this winter, his rookie season has already been a huge success. He’s been a key piece of a historic Pirates offense that’s seen multiple of its best hitters suffer lengthy injuries, and he’s stepped up to every single challenge that’s been thrown his way.
Valdez already looks like he’ll have a future in Pittsburgh for a long time, and he’s just getting started.
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Written by
Jay Staph, a huge baseball fan and stat nerd, founded and ran his own baseball writing website, BSBWrites, at just 16-years-old. With focal points around prospects,…