The Blue Jays Can’t Afford To Be Middle of the Pack in All Facets
Coming off a season where they were one of the most intimidating teams in MLB, the Blue Jays need to find their way out of mediocrity in 2026.
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The Toronto Blue Jays have been near the middle of the MLB standings for the majority of the 2026 season, and even after recently sweeping a three-game set against the Boston Red Sox, they’re still one game below .500 with a 38-39 record.
While they’ve certainly been impressive in some areas, such as relief pitching and contact and strikeout rates, the Blue Jays have some glaring flaws that are preventing them from looking like the 2025 version of themselves.
Last season, they had clear elite rankings in many areas. But this year, they are much more mediocre in several important categories in several facets of the game.
Toronto needs to find a way to assert themselves as a better overall team if they want a chance to compete this season. They’re looking less like the team that won the American League last season, and the Blue Jays are losing their intimidating identity.
Stats were taken prior to play on June 22.
Starting Rotation Issues
Injuries have really piled up for Toronto, and that has led to the majority of the rotation’s issues.
Essentially every Toronto starter not named Kevin Gausman has seen an IL stint this season. The Blue Jays have received the fourth-fewest innings from their starting pitching this season (349.1 IP), and they have the fewest pitching wins from their starters (15).
Toronto is one of seven teams with fewer than 20 quality starts, and Dylan Cease and Kevin Gausman have combined for 13 of their 19 quality starts this season. 11 different pitchers have started games for the Jays in 2026 — two of whom are currently on the IL, one has been designated for assignment, and four are openers.
Gausman is the only Blue Jays starter who hasn’t missed a start yet this season, as he looks to complete his sixth consecutive season of making 31-plus starts.
Toronto is slated to get Shane Bieber back to action with a start on Monday against the Houston Astros, and he’ll hope to bring more stability to the rotation. Last season, Toronto’s starting pitching was crucial to their success throughout the year, and it might be the reason for their downfall in 2026 if things don’t shape up soon.
While the Jays’ bullpen has been very dependable this season, there’s only so much an over-taxed bullpen can do if names like Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland aren’t available on a given day. They need their starters to consistently work deep into games to lessen the workload on their relievers.
Home Run Deficiency
One area that’s easy to point to as a weak spot in Toronto’s performance this season is a lack of power at the plate.
This isn’t to say that they lack the ability to hit for power, but there’s been a lack of home runs throughout their lineup. The Blue Jays only have one hitter with at least 10 home runs — Kazuma Okamoto with 15. Six other Jays have between five and eight home runs this season, and none of the players mentioned thus far are Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
It’s quite obvious that Guerrero isn’t producing offensively the way that Blue Jays fans and the rest of the league expect him to, especially coming off a historic performance in the 2025 postseason.
In 2026, Guerrero is slashing .279/.365/.370 with a 106 wRC+. While that’s not inherently terrible, is on pace to give him the worst regular season performance of his career. He’s only topped 35 home runs once in his career, so he’s not the most proficient home run hitter, but he’s currently on pace for just nine home runs in 2026.
For context, Guerrero has reached that mark before the end of June in each of the last five seasons. Something has to give sooner or later, because Toronto desperately needs him to be himself again as soon as possible.
Toronto ranks tied for 23rd in MLB with 77 home runs this season, and they’re one of nine teams with a wRC+ of 95 or less.
Even though names like Brandon Valenzuela, Yohendrick Piñango, Jesús Sánchez, and Ernie Clement are some of their top hitters, the standout performers like Guerrero, George Springer, and Alejandro Kirk (only 11 games) aren’t hitting for the power the team needs.
Defensively… Average?
In 2025, the Blue Jays were one of the best defensive teams in all of baseball, but they’ve been simply average in 2026.
One would think that shedding the -13 OAA and -10 FRV of Bo Bichette might make Toronto a better overall defensive team, but it seems to be the opposite. By fielding run value (FRV), the Jays led the league in 2025 with a score of +45, ranking 17 runs higher than the next-best AL team (Guardians).
In 2024 they also found themselves atop the league standings in FRV (+51) while taking home their second consecutive AL Team Gold Glove Award (2023, 2024). While last season the Jays got at least +10 FRV and +9 OAA from each of Daulton Varsho, Myles Straw, and Ernie Clement, they’re all sitting around or below an even ranking in 2026.
Toronto is severely hurting from not having the elite arm of Addison Barger in their outfield and from poor defensive performances from newcomers like Piñango (-3 FRV, -2 OAA) and Sánchez (-7 FRV, -6 OAA). While the Jays undoubtedly have one of the best defensive catching tandems of Valenzuela and Kirk, the rest of the team is floundering in the field.
While their elite defense was one of the hallmarks of the Jays’ run to the 2025 World Series, it’s hard to picture this year’s team as the same squad when they’re committing more errors and not bringing defensive stability behind their pitchers like they did last year.
Closing Thoughts
Last year’s Toronto Blue Jays were intimidating, united, and unshakeable. This year’s Toronto Blue Jays have been floundering at times, not locked-in defensively, and mired with injuries.
The quest for the 2026 season isn’t to recreate what the team looked like last season, but one can’t help drawing comparisons to a very similar squad that is less than a year removed from some of the most exciting baseball in franchise history.
It’s obviously not possible for a team to be the best in the league at everything, but the 2026 Blue Jays simply aren’t really great at many things so far. They clearly have the talent and potential to get hot and make a playoff run, but it’ll take some improvements to get there.
They have a Cy Young-caliber arm in Dylan Cease leading their rotation, along with one of the best relievers in the American League in Louis Varland. But without the overall team success they saw last season, these things don’t add up perfectly.
Barry Bonds was the most intimidating hitter in MLB history, but he only took up one ninth of the lineup on any given day — the fact that he didn’t win a World Series is a testament to the fact that it is conjoint team success that brings teams to the top and not simply what one or a few players can accomplish.
If the Blue Jays are going to be in the hunt in 2026, they need a bunch of players to get back into rhythm and recapture the identity that got them so far in 2025.
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Ethan has been writing for Just Baseball since 2024 and is fascinated by how sabermetric statistics can assist our understanding of outcomes and probability in baseball.…