The Casey Mize Selection Is Finally Paying Dividends

It has been almost eight years since Casey Mize was selected first overall by the Detroit Tigers in the 2018 MLB Draft.

Mize was coming off his first season as a full-time starter for the Auburn Tigers, his most impressive season as a collegiate athlete. He posted a 3.30 ERA across 114.2 innings and 156 strikeouts.

Despite Auburn falling short of the 2018 College World Series that year, being eliminated in the Super Regionals by the Florida Gators, Mize was unanimously referred to as the most dominant pitcher in college baseball that season.

As soon as he went from one Tigers team to another, there were lofty expectations set on the right-hander that were going to be impressive, had he been able to reach them.

Even dating back to his time at Springville High School in Alabama in 2015, Mize was considered one of the top pitching prospects in the country, though he went undrafted due to an ankle injury and concerns surrounding his signability due to his commitment to Auburn.

Through all of the impressive traits and characteristics he possessed as a college prospect, what stood out the most was his devastating split-finger fastball that was downright unhittable for college hitters.

While relying on a pitcher whose best pitch is a split-finger fastball isn’t the norm, there was enough in the profile that would earn him the label of “best pitcher in the class.” He had command of a deep pitch mix that was well advanced for his level, while also showing scouts that he was already capable of having true shape to his pitches.

On top of all that, he was consistently clocked in the high-90s, showed plenty of durability, and possessed a bulldog mentality that truly made him a standout.

He entered the Tigers organization as the no-doubt top prospect, slotting in over the Tigers’ 2016 first-round pick, Matt Manning, who also had lofty expectations set upon him as a high school arm. The 2018 class also netted the Tigers their current. ace, Tarik Skubal, but at the time, the ninth-round pick wasn’t expected to reach the heights that he has as a back-to-back Cy Young Award winner.

That was supposed to be Casey Mize.

Mize only pitched in 13.2 innings in the minor leagues after being drafted before being shut down for the rest of the year.

In his first full season of Minor League Baseball, Mize pitched in both High-A Lakeland and Double-A Erie. He threw a total of 109.1 innings, pitching to a 2.55 ERA, striking out 8.7 per nine, and even threw a no-hitter in his Double-A debut. He only walked one and struck out eight in that start in just 98 pitches.

Mize was heading into the 2020 season ready to make his major league debut and begin his trek towards being the club’s next Justin Verlander at the top of the rotation.

Roller Coaster Career

The 2020 season on its own could be a perfect encapsulation of how Mize’s career has been so far.

Though there was always the chance that he could have won a spot in the Opening Day rotation, we would never know, with that being the year we all got shut down. Not only would the MLB season be delayed, but the MiLB season as a whole would be cancelled.

Mize was sent to the alternate site to continue to work with the club for his eventual call-up that would occur on August 19 against the Chicago White Sox.

In his debut, Mize spun 4.1 innings, striking out seven, and not walking a single hitter. He would, however, go on to allow three runs on seven hits. The command concerns showed up – the ones that would be referenced when scouts and executives discussed how the volatile splitter would transition against professional hitters.

In each of his following six starts of that season, Mize would go on to walk at least two hitters. Aside from fastball velocity and extension, there wasn’t a single metric in which he would rank in the top half of qualified arms.

His season totals would read 28.1 innings pitched in seven starts, a 6.99 ERA, a 6.47 FIP, and -0.2 fWAR. He was also only throwing 46.4% of his pitches for strikes, which was below league average. How did the splitter fare? Well, opposing batters hit .313 against the pitch, despite it generating a 28% swing-and-miss rate.

Then, in 2021, the Tigers started to see the rise that many hoped would be just the beginning of a successful career for the right-hander.

In his first full season as part of the big league rotation, Mize threw 150.1 innings in 30 starts and posted a 3.71 ERA. He still fell shy of striking out a hitter per inning with his 7.1 K/9, but he was a positive WAR player at 1.2 fWAR. Where he was able to make a tangible improvement was with his command, cutting the BB/9 down from 4.13 in 2020 to 2.45 in 2021.

This was also the season in which he posted his lowest opponents’ hard-hit percentage at 40%, limiting barrels to 10%. He also cut his overall splitter usage down and almost completely ditched the sinker. Mize began to rely far more on his four-seamer, and it was working.

The career-high in innings came at a price, however. After only 10 innings in 2022, Mize would undergo Tommy John surgery that June and be shut down for the remainder of 2022, as well as all of the 2023 season. It wasn’t until 2024 that we would be able to see if the changes Mize made would amount to more.

In his return to the mound, Mize would appear in 22 games, starting 20, posting a 4.49 ERA across 102.1 innings. Though it was nice to see him back on the mound, he would continue to deal with injuries starting as soon as spring training, when he dealt with a right adductor strain, and then again when he was sidelined until late August after being placed on the 60-day IL in July with a left hamstring strain.

In 2025, we began to see the upward trend again for Mize, who would make his first career All-Star Game as an injury replacement for Red Sox lefty Garrett Crochet. Injury replacement designation aside, Mize was more than deserving. We finally began to see the Auburn Tigers’ version of the right-hander.

The walk percentage had fallen to 5.7% by the end of the year, which should have been a true indicator of the continued success he has shown us so far in 2026. His contact rate was a new career low at 78.1% in the 149 innings in which he pitched to a 3.87 ERA.

Yet, even through that success, the roller coaster part of this story was still there. Just when you thought he was becoming a front-of-the-line starter, he would be sidelined with another injury.

So, would 2026 continue the trend?

The Trend Looks Bucked

At multiple points in our lives, whether you want to admit it or not, we are prisoners of the moment. Needless to say, Mize has been downright dominant this season, and for a team like the Detroit Tigers, who have had little to be grateful for or excited about, Mize is showing to be a bright light.

Yes, Tarik Skubal is the engine that drives this organization as a whole, but that should not diminish the incredible start to the year by Casey Mize.

Entering Tuesday, May 26, Casey has thrown to a 2.47 ERA in 43.2 innings pitched. In the eight games in which he has started, he is striking out hitters at what is currently a career-high mark with his 8.9 K/9. He is also doing a great job limiting the long ball, holding hitters to a 3.5% HR/FB rate, and doing so with a career-low opposing 74.1% contact rate.

Remember just how blue the 2020 Savant page looked?

This season is proving to us that this is a whole different pitcher. This also has not come from further eliminating the splitter, which, as you remember from earlier, was the largest cause for concern with him going forward.

In fact, as it currently stands, Mize is throwing the splitter 27% of the time, second only to his four-seamer, which he is throwing at a 34% rate.

How has he been able to accomplish this? Well, his velocity just so happens to be sitting at a career-low 93.2 mph. What this has allowed him to do is be far more precise with his location. Mize has been able to execute all three of his pitches when needed.

All three of his pitches are valued as plus-pitches in run value, per FanGraphs. The lowest, funny enough, is his four-seam fastball, and while the heat maps show that he tends to miss a little more frequently down the middle of the plate with his slider, it is his highest run value pitch at 3.7.

The question remains, however. Can he keep this up?

If you were to ask me, there is no bigger story to the Tigers’ season than the emergence of Casey Mize. Yes, even bigger than all of the speculation revolving around Skubal and his future on the roster.

I don’t believe the biggest part of Mize’s struggles has to do with talent. The main cause would come from the multitude of injuries he has had to overcome and try to re-establish himself as a major league pitcher.

If Mize can remain healthy *knocks on wood*, then I have no problem saying that he is going to continue this career year going forward. I, for one, could not be happier to see this happen to someone I have witnessed have to overcome so many trials and tribulations since entering the league. Yes, he was the first overall pick, but that comes with a weight of itself.

Casey Mize is living up to the expectations laid upon him when he was drafted in 2018. It’s time to truly start appreciating what we are witnessing.

Stats updated prior to games on May 26.