Jackson Merrill’s Turnaround Is a Matter of When, Not If
With Jackson Merrill starting to heat up, it's only a matter of time until the 23-year-old returns to his peak form.
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Two seasons ago, Jackson Merrill broke onto the scene in a big way for the San Diego Padres. At 21 years old, he slashed .292/.326/.500, was named an All-Star, and finished runner-up in rookie of the year voting to Paul Skenes.
It wasn’t just the numbers, it was how easy it all look for Merrill. He transitioned from shortstop and became an elite center fielder and oozed with confidence, making him a future franchise cornerstone.
Entering his sophomore year with sky-high expectations, things didn’t repeat. Three trips to the IL gave him little chance to find consistency, and in turn, his production took a step back. It’s hard to label it as a true “sophomore slump” given the circumstances, but either way, his numbers took a step back from his stellar rookie campaign.
Coming into this season, the expectations for the now 23-year-old remain the same. However, similarly to the other stars on the team, he has gotten off to a slow start. So far this season, he is hitting .235 with and an 88 OPS+.
Despite the slow start, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic that Merrill will turn things around.
Stats were taken prior to play on May 7.
Signs of Life Beneath the Surface
Without even diving into the numbers, Merrill passes the eye test. Players with his kind of talent don’t stay quiet for long. And even when they do go through stretches like this, those slumps often end with a surge that reminds everyone exactly who they are.
We’ve already seen that version of Merrill. There’s nothing fundamentally holding him back from reaching those heights again, or even surpassing them.
And when you do look at the numbers, there are clear indicators that things are trending in the right direction.
In his last nine games, he is slashing .316/.350/.447 with one home run and two doubles. While is isn’t his .900 OPS from two seasons ago, it’s a step in the right direction.
Looking a little deeper, the underlying metrics suggest he’s been better than his surface stats indicate. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) sits at .436, 54 points higher than his actual slugging. That gap typically points toward positive regression.
His barrel rate (10.2%) and hard-hit rate (46.5%) are also strong, both sitting comfortably in ranges that usually translate to consistent production over time. In other words, he’s still making good quality of contact.
One other positive is his bat speed is up 1.5 mph from last season. Last season, he struggled handling inside pitching, batting .174 on pitches on the inner half. With the improved bat speed, he should get back to turning on more balls, like he was his first year.
The one caveat with Merrill is that he chases — a lot.
Merrill has always been an aggressive hitter, and at times, that approach can work against him. His chase rate has never dipped below 27% in his career, and this season it’s climbed to 36.2%. While that wasn’t a major issue during his rookie year, when he managed to keep his whiff and strikeout rates in check, it’s started to have a more noticeable impact over the past two seasons.
Improving his pitch selection, even slightly, could go a long way. Seeing more pitches, working deeper counts, and giving himself a better chance to get his A-swing off would help improve his production, especially during slower stretches.
He’s never been a high-walk player (career 5.9% walk rate), and that likely won’t change dramatically. But even marginal improvement in that area could help him stay productive when the hits aren’t falling.
At the same time, it wouldn’t make sense for Merrill to completely abandon the aggressive style that makes him so effective, and so fun to watch. That same play style is part of what fueled his breakout in the first place. The key is finding a balance: maintaining that natural aggressiveness while becoming just a bit more selective.
Final Thoughts
Yes, Merrill is off to a slow start, and his Baseball Savant page doesn’t scream positive regression candidate. But context always matters.
We’re talking about a 23-year-old player in his third year that is slumping for a little over a month into a long season. Surrounding him is a Padres lineup that has had its up and downs, making it harder for anyone to be consistent.
Between the recent uptick in production, the encouraging underlying metrics, and natural progression of young hitters in the league, it feels less like a question of if Merrill will turn things around, and more like when.
When he does, he will put everyone back on notice. I’d expect it to look like it did two season ago, with everything seemingly coming together.
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Written by
Ethan is an aspiring sports analyst who has a passion for all sports. He was a collegiate baseball player and is now finishing up his schooling…