Clay Holmes Is Putting the Mets’ Rotation on His Back
The Mets may be struggling, but Clay Holmes looks like a star. Here’s what has fueled his breakout season.
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The New York Mets have been the talk of baseball for much of this season, but not for the right reasons. The Mets sit at the bottom of the National League East, eight games below .500 entering play on Thursday.
Still, amid all the disasters and disappointments, one bright spot has emerged: Clay Holmes as a starting pitcher.
For all the attention that Nolan McLean and Freddy Peralta get, neither has been the Mets’ true ace. That title belongs to Holmes.
Entering May 7, Holmes owns a 1.69 ERA, the second-lowest mark among qualified National League starters through seven starts. His 42.2 innings pitched also rank seventh in the league.
David Stearns, the Mets’ president of baseball operations, signed Holmes to a three-year, $38 million contract before the 2025 season. Holmes entered the deal as a career reliever with only 15 innings of starting experience under his belt.
Many expected the move to fail. But after a solid season last year and an exceptional start this year, the signing already looks like a major win. So what has turned Holmes into one of baseball’s best starting pitchers this season? Let’s take a closer look.
Why Clay Holmes Can Sustain This Level of Dominance
Before becoming a starter, Holmes made a successful living out of the bullpen. He earned two All-Star nods with the New York Yankees in 2022 and 2024. However, he’s no longer the same pitcher he was back then.
As a reliever, Holmes mainly threw three pitches: a sinker, slider, and sweeper. The slider and sweeper became his wipeout pitches. Opposing hitters batted below .200 against both breaking balls.
But relying on only three pitches isn’t a long-term formula for success as a starter. In his first season with the Mets, Holmes added a cutter, four-seamer, and changeup to his arsenal.
That changeup became his difference maker. Holmes throws a kick changeup, a pitch that has grown in popularity because of its devastating movement. The pitch features more drop and sink than a typical changeup, making it tougher for hitters to pick up. Later, we’ll break down why it has changed everything for Holmes.
With his updated repertoire, Holmes put together a solid 2025 campaign. He posted a 3.53 ERA across 165.2 innings with a 2.0 bWAR. Still, one underlying issue continued to give people pause: his control.
When watching Holmes as both a reliever and a starter, there always seemed to be a point where he lost the strike zone. That not only led to more runs, but also shorter outings. His 66 walks last season tied for the 11th most among National League pitchers.
It’s also worth noting that Holmes wore down as the season progressed. He surpassed inning totals he had never reached before in his major league career.
That brings us to this season. With a full starter’s workload now behind him, Holmes looks like a true ace through seven starts, already posting a 1.7 bWAR. So, what’s changed?
Several things have fueled Holmes’ breakout. The first is another addition to his arsenal: a curveball. Holmes used the pitch earlier in his career, but ditched it after the 2021 season.
Bringing back the breaking ball has given hitters another pitch to look out for. Holmes now throws it around 10% of the time, adding a much-needed wrinkle to his pitch mix.
Still, the two pitches driving Holmes’ success are his sinker and changeup. Holmes has always leaned heavily on his sinker, but even more so this season. He’s throwing the pitch nearly 50% of the time, a nine-percent increase from last year. And there’s a good reason for that.
Holmes’ sinker has always graded among the best in baseball by the metrics. This season, it looks even better.
Last year, Holmes averaged 28.4 inches of vertical break and 15 inches of arm-side run on the pitch. This year, those numbers have jumped to 29.3 inches of vertical break and 16.2 inches of horizontal movement.
According to Statcast, Holmes’ sinker averages 93.5 mph and produces 6.7 inches more movement than comparable pitches with similar velocity and extension. That’s the best mark among starting pitchers.
The same can be said for his changeup. Holmes’ changeup averages 88.9 mph and generates 6.5 inches more movement than comparable pitches. Again, that ranks among the best differences in baseball.
That movement has helped Holmes generate a 57.4% ground-ball rate, placing him in the top seven percent of MLB.
Another reason for that jump is Holmes’ slight change in arm angle, a trend that has continued over the years. In his final season as a reliever in 2024, Holmes featured a 49-degree arm slot. Last year, he dropped it to 44 degrees. This season, he’s lowered it even more to 41 degrees.
A lower arm slot typically creates more ground balls, which helps explain the increase in Holmes’ ground-ball rate.
Holmes’ evolution as a starter has been fascinating to watch. He may be 33 years old, but this season feels like he’s truly coming into his own. After handling a full starter’s workload last year, he should be built to last through September.
Not much has gone right for the Mets this season, but with rookie sensation Nolan McLean, Freddy Peralta, and the emergence of Holmes, there’s still reason to believe New York can turn things around.
Either way, Clay Holmes is quickly emerging as a star before our very eyes.
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Written by
Thomas Kelson is an intern at Just Baseball and a graduating senior at Rutgers University, where he studied Journalism and Media Studies with a specialization in…