What’s Gone Wrong With Andrew Abbott in the New Year?

Since his major league debut in 2023, Andrew Abbott has etched a name for himself as one of the league’s craftiest starters. Although the left-hander sits in the 18th percentile with an average fastball velocity of 92.4 MPH, he’s been able to utilize a unique pitch mix to keep hitters off balance.

Abbott attacks hitters primarily with his four-seam fastball, which he uses 50% of the time, while also relying on his changeup (21%), sweeper (16%), curveball (12%), and cutter (1%). What makes Abbott’s arsenal unique, though, is his ability to generate horizontal movement with each of his offerings.

Over the past two seasons, each of Abbott’s pitches, with the exception of his cutter, has had below-average vertical break compared to comparable pitches (within 2 MPH, 0.5 feet of extension/release).

On the other hand, he’s induced above-average horizontal break on the majority of pitches thrown. That sideways movement has enabled his fastball and changeup to tunnel effectively with the curveball, allowing Abbott to avoid hard contact as a result.

2025 was the season that saw Abbott’s pitch mix at its most effective, after the lefty posted a 2.87 ERA in 166.1 innings pitched. Even so, several aspects of his profile have raised concerns, leading to a looming question: how much of his success is truly sustainable?

All stats updated prior to games on Sunday, April 19

Pitcher Profile

Part of the concern with Abbott’s profile stems from poor underlying metrics, particularly low ground ball and strikeout numbers.

Over the course of the past three seasons, he has never ranked above the 45th percentile in whiff%, and has never induced ground balls more than 34.7% of the time (8th percentile). He’s also never posted an xFIP lower than 4.31, a result of slightly below-average strikeout rates, slightly below average walk rates, and a roughly average HR/9.

A zoomed-out look at Abbott’s profile shows that these specific pieces aren’t the only concerning aspects of his game.

When taking his entire major league career into consideration, including his rocky start to this season, Abbott looks less like a surefire ace, and more like a volatile mid-rotation arm.

Outside of last year, the left-hander has never landed above the 44th percentile in chase%, the 57th percentile in barrel%, and has seen his K% declining overall since his debut in 2023.

Even so, Abbott did take a massive step forward during the 2025 season. One positive sign was cutting back on issuing free bases, with BB% dropping from 8.8->6.3%. Abbott also ranked in the 93rd percentile in hard-hit%, and limited average exit velocity to 87.8 MPH.

Looking at Abbott’s performance through 24.2 innings pitched this season, though, the metrics look more aligned with career norms than his lone all-star season. In five starts, the left-hander has seen his whiff%, xBA, and K% all drop below the 22nd percentile, while regressing in chase%, average exit velocity, and hard-hit%. He’s also posted a 4.75 xFIP, which has risen over 40 points from last season’s 4.31 value.

2026 Outlook

Even with the concerning aspects of his profile, it would be disingenuous to act like Abbott’s struggles to start the year anticipated by many in the sport. Abbott has remained a largely successful pitcher over the last three years, and it’s still very early in the season.

Plus, there are several key storylines to watch for the Cincinnati Reds‘ opening day starter as the season continues.

One such story is a developing arsenal. Prior to his Saturday afternoon start against the Minnesota Twins, Abbott’s usage of his sweeper had dropped below 10%. Just one game later, he was back up to 16%.

Abbott’s sweeper has been one of his main offerings against lefties, and one of the most successful in his arsenal since his major league debut (+11 run value from 2023-25). Watching how Abbott shapes his approach and sequences in the coming weeks will be key to evaluating how the rest of the season may go.

It’s also worth noting that opposing batters are overperforming against Abbott’s changeup, where they’ve managed a .414 wOBA while owning a .303 xWOBA against.

His changeup has been one of the more reliable weapons in his arsenal, and nothing points to a shift in the pitch’s effectiveness. Hitter performance should regress towards the mean as the season continues, and Abbott’s changeup should remain one of his better options.

With all this in mind, I’d argue that Abbott’s 2025 performance level is just not sustainable. However, given everything he’s shown us in his major league career, it’s clear that Abbott is a good pitcher, and we should not expect that to change as the year carries on.