How Concerned Should We Be With the Tigers’ Early Struggles?
Even after Sunday's huge win over Miami, the Tigers haven't started 2026 the way they wanted to. Realistically, where's the concern level at?
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The Detroit Tigers are viewed as one of the favorites to come out of the American League. Back-to-back playoff appearances, a top notch farm system ready to debut, and significant offseason additions had fans feeling like 2026 would be the Tigers’ best chance to make a run.
However, the Tigers have crawled out to a 7-9 start, just above the Chicago White Sox for last place in the AL Central. Many of the issues we saw last season have carried over to start and the concerns fans had in October are now appearing in April.
Some of the problems can be tampered with excuses. Starting the season with 10 of your first 14 on the road, and beginning on the west coast, is far from ideal. Playing a series in Minnesota when it is 30 degrees also is not the best conditions for baseball.
Yet, the bigger problems are inexcusable. Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Torkelson have all started slow totaling two home runs amongst themselves. Middle of the order bats that were seen as the core of this team have come up short, killed rallies, and produced some underwhelming at bats.
Luckily, we still have 90+% of the season left. Turning around a bad start is not only possible, but I’d argue probable for the Tigers. Sunday’s 8-2 over the Miami Marlins could very well spell the start of a rebound.
Stats updated prior to play on Monday, April 13
Offensive Inconsistencies
Detroit is not experiencing a slow start across the board. In fact, a number of their players have taken a step forward and shown notable improvement from last season. Colt Keith looks like a breakout candidate with a .847 OPS and 145 wRC+. The power is not quite there but his swings look more confident and he’s impacting the baseball more. Now, he just needs to pull the ball and he’ll take off.
Kevin McGonigle has been as promised. The rookie has filled the leadoff spot and is already looking like a veteran posting a 167 wRC+ along with walking more than he’s struck out. I think it is fair to say he’ll be the impact player many thought he would be and can lift this team’s ceiling if others can play to the back of their baseball cards.
Dillon Dingler and Javy Baez have been positives and Parker Meadows was tracking in the right direction before his injury. But, the Tigers have struggled to string together offense in a way that produces runs. Either within an inning or across a series, the Tigers have not looked in synch to start the season.
I think the biggest issue has been producing power. Stacking singles in hopes of scoring is getting more and more difficult in this modern world of baseball. You need power to help break games open and the Tigers eight home runs ranks second to last in all of baseball.
The biggest factor in their lack of power can be attributed to Greene, Carpenter, and Torkelson’s struggles. Not only did account for the top three in home runs last season but they were the only Tigers to surpass 20 home runs.
The graphic above shows how luck, or in this case being unlucky, has impacted this team. Playing early season games in the brutal cold has killed a few would be home runs while the vast dimensions in Arizona and Detroit have also played a part.
Will the power improve? I believe so. Everything we know about Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson tell us they are going to improve. Riley Greene has made great contact early but has fallen on bad luck. His .534 xSLG is vastly better than his .367 SLG and even better than his slugging numbers from last season.
Counting on those three to give you 20+ home runs is something I am comfortable with. Finding others to contribute to power gets harder. Dingler has a chance to be a factor as does Keith but we have not seen their power with enough consistency to count on it.
I know expected stats can be funky, especially in a tiny sample, but the numbers are in favor of the Tigers rebounding. That at least gives us confidence in a few of the more proven players getting back to what we know they can be. But how about the role the players?
When the Tigers decided to not address their offense in any way this winter the concern began to grow. Javier Baez, Wenceel Perez, Zach McKinstry, and Jahmai Jones lifted this team at times last year and if we are being honest played above their abilities.
Detroit rolling into 2026 hoping this group, plus Matt Vierling, and play to a high level was always a risk. I’m sure one of two can put together a good season but when you consider how many at bats are allocated to what can be best described as bench players the concern continues to grow.
We’ll soon find out if their plan of sticking with the same guys was worth it.
Pitching Isn’t a Real Problem
When constructing this team the front office put a heavy emphasis on pitching. Instead of filtering through a lackluster group of free agent position players Scott Harris loaded up on pitching adding Kenley Jansen, Framber Valdez, and Justin Verlander while bringing back Kyle Finnegan.
So far the Tigers have been fine when it comes to pitching. When you sort through all of the stats Detroit ranks around the middle of the pack in most categories. The issue with a team built on pitching is middle of the pack isn’t good enough to make up for an offense that is also middle of the pack or worse in a number of offensive categories.
Average is not good enough. We are talking about a team that has legitimate World Series aspirations which require better than average. If the teams pitching falters even a little bit the offense does not yet have the juice to make up for the small margins.
All that being said, there’s plenty of reason for expect better results. Valdez looked fantastic in his first two outings then had a blunder. It happens. He’s proved over the course of his career that he has what it takes to be a front line starter and a three game sample size isn’t enough to sound any alarms.
The biggest concerns with the rotation lie with depth and Jack Flaherty. After Verlander’s injury the Tigers now have four starters on the IL – Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Troy Melton, and Verlander. Keider Montero has stepped up nicely and is a quality “sixth starter” but the Tigers are one injury away from a massive drop off in talent.
Flaherty was supposed to be a stabilizer in the middle of the rotation but has struggled to find the strike zone leading to hitters counts, throwing more in the zone, and hard contact. Detroit needs him to be a much better than his 1.64 WHIP and 5.14 ERA that he has started the season with.
There is still room to grow and I do expect this group to finish much better than average. I’d argue that each starter’s reasonable expectation is better than what we have seen so far. Water finding it’s level will be an improvement.
Detroit’s bullpen is also playing at a lower level than you would expect. Outside of Jansen, nearly every other bullpen arm has a BB/9 over 4.25 resulting in too many walks and excess baserunners. Again, a number of these arms have proven to be better than what they have shown and six inning samples are not predictors, but they are results of what has happened.
Final Thoughts
While I understand and share the same concerns about parts of the lineup that were problems dating back to last year I’m not yet hitting the panic button. There’s enough data pointing towards improvements for Torkelson, Greene, and Carpenter that I think the offense can get back on track.
Bottom line: the Tigers need to do the little things better. The current brand of baseball we have seen looks sloppy and bland. Defensive issues, struggling to throw strikes, and ugly at bats with poor swing decisions need to be corrected or this team will not come close to their ceiling.
Keep in mind, it’s early. A turnaround is probable and I do not think this is a bad team, just a bad stretch.
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