Four Bold Predictions for the 2026 San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres might be the most puzzling team in Major League Baseball.

On paper, they have a lineup capable of matching any contender. In reality, they’re working with a rotation that looks increasingly fragile, operating under one of the sport’s most aggressive front offices, and doing it all while the franchise navigates a sale.

They’re coming off a 90-win season that rarely felt that stable. The offense lacked consistency, often leaving the pitching staff with little margin for error.

That isn’t a sustainable style of baseball, especially in a division where the Los Angeles Dodgers continue to raise the bar. If the Padres are going to keep pace, let alone push toward a World Series, they’ll need more than baseline production from a talented roster.

Every season produces its share of outliers. For teams in this position, those can define everything.

With that in mind, here are four bold predictions for the Padres in 2026.

Michael King Finishes Top Five in Cy Young Voting

Two seasons ago, Michael King was one of the best starters in baseball, finishing seventh in Cy Young. Due to multiple injuries, he wasn’t able to build off of his breakout year, but still had a 3.44 ERA in 71 innings.

Despite the down year, I’m still a firm believer in his stuff and the way he attacks hitters. When right, he is front dooring sinkers to lefties and having righties flail at his sweeper. And his cross-body delivery creates deception, making it hard to pick up the ball out of his hand.

Even with a rough spring, it should be taken with a grain of salt. You never know what a player is working on or tinkering with during these games, and especially someone who has roster security, he has the luxury of messing around with mechanics or pitches.

With last season behind him, and his velocity in line with previous seasons, I believe that he will return to his 2024 form, solidifying himself as one of the top pitchers in the National League. 

Gavin Sheets Hits 30 Home Runs

I am all on Gavin Sheets’ full breakout this season.

Last season, we got an idea of the type of player he can be, and after a very encouraging spring, it’s all go for the Padres first baseman.

Sheets said he wanted to improve his plate discipline and swing consistency this spring, and that was on full display. In 51 plate appearances, he posted a 15.5% walk rate with a 7.8% strikeout rate, walking twice as much as he struck out.

What was even more encouraging was the power he showcased, hitting two doubles and four home runs, giving him a .605 slug, .326 ISO, and a 150 wRC+. That is elite power.

Again, we can’t overreact to these numbers due to the small sample size. If this is even a partial indicator of what Sheets can be, 30 home runs might be a low-ball projection.

If he can combine his 38.8 % launch-angle sweet-spot rate from last season with his more selective approach, watch out.

Jackson Merrill Receives MVP Votes

Finishing runner-up in NL ROTY voting was Jackson Merrill. He already looks like a franchise cornerstone, transitioning smoothly from shortstop to center field and mashing at the plate. 

It’s hard to say he suffered from the dreaded “sophomore slump” because it wasn’t his play that regressed, but his health. Three separate IL stints will mess with anyone’s ability to find a groove at the plate, and Merrill was no different.

His aggressive nature at the plate seemed to catch up to him as well, whiffing and striking out significantly more than his rookie year, but he is too talented to have back-to-back down years. 

He makes still makes exceptional contact with a 42.6% launch-angle sweet-spot rate (99th percentile) and a 13% barrel rate (82nd percentile). 

I expect a rebound and leap from Merrill’s bat and blended with his borderline elite defense, the jump into MVP conversations isn’t far behind.

The Bullpen Will Go Down as One of the Best of All Time

This might not be that bold of a prediction, but this bullpen has the chance to be an all-time great group, one that could rival the 1990 Oakland Athletics, who had a 2.35 ERA.

Going from top to bottom, there are no real weaknesses. You have Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón, Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, David Morgan, Wandy Peralta, and Yuki Matsui. This is easily the best group in all of baseball.

This doesn’t even factor in Bradgley Rodriguez, who I think is going to break out and be the Robert Suarez replacement. 

Each player is unique in the way they attack hitters, giving teams so many different looks and pitch shapes. 

It is going to be more than a tough task replicating their 3.06 ERA from a season ago, but I’d argue this bullpen has gotten better from a season ago. You are getting a full season of Miller, and Morejon, Estrada, and Morgan give no signs of regression.

The only thing that I can see stopping them from making the push is if Adam struggles mightily returning from injury, but his recovery has been smooth and he hasn’t lost any velocity.