Why Fernando Tatis Jr. Could Win NL MVP in 2026

In an interview on Abriendo Sports, Juan Soto called San Diego Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. the most complete player in Major League Baseball. Objectively, that claim is debatable, but it shows how players around the league view Tatis’ ceiling. 

Early in his career, Tatis looked like a generational talent. Across his first three seasons, Tatis slashed .292/.369/.596 with a 160 OPS+, accumulated 13.4 WAR, and finished in the top five in MVP voting twice.

Then came 2022.

A left shoulder injury kept him on the shelf for much of the year, and a PED suspension further derailed his momentum. Since returning, he hasn’t had an OPS over .900, a mark he reached in each of his first three seasons. While some attribute the decline to the suspension, the lingering effects of the shoulder injury may play as big a role.

What Tatis has lost at the plate, he has more than made up for in the field.

Since moving to right field in 2023, he has emerged as one of the premier defenders, winning two Platinum Glove awards. His athleticism, arm strength, and range have made him a human highlight reel.

We’ve seen two versions of Tatis: the electric offensive superstar and the elite defensive outfielder. If 2026 is the year for those two versions to merge, Soto’s statement may no longer sound outlandish; it may sound like fact.

What Does Tatis Have Going For Him Already?

Tatis made various strides as a hitter in 2025, mainly in his approach and his bat-to-ball skills. He posted career bests in strikeout rate (18.7%), chase rate (24.4%), and walk rate (12.9%), which all point to a more disciplined version of himself at the plate. This resulted in a .368 OBP, his highest mark since his rookie season.

Batting out of the leadoff spot unlocked another dimension of his game. With more opportunities to run and score, Tatis reached career highs in stolen bases (32) and runs scored (111), turning into a table-setter with threatening speed. 

And the quality of contact? Still elite. 

His Baseball Savant page is a sea of red. Ranking in the 85th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and expected batting average.

Then there’s his defense.

Tatis has become one of the premier defenders in baseball. He posted +8 outs above average (94th percentile) while having one of the strongest arms in the league, averaging 95.5 mph (99th percentile) on his throws.

This, combined with his athleticism, earned him his second Platinum Glove in only his third year in right field. 

This version of Tatis we saw posted 6.1 fWAR, showcasing an elite hitter, baserunner, and defender. What is mind boggling is that there is more meat on the bone for Tatis.

Yet, there is still something missing. 

What Is Keeping Tatis From Reaching MVP Heights?

The missing piece is obvious: power.

As stated earlier, Tatis posted an OPS north of .900 in his first three seasons. Since then, he has yet to crack an .850 OPS.

So, where did the power go?

Tatis’ attack angle on the baseball has dropped from 10 degrees in 2024 to eight degrees in 2025, and his bat was coming in a touch slower than last season. You couple a flatter and slower swing, and it results in a major drop in barrel rate, falling from 14.5% to 10.9%.

It makes sense that we saw Tatis post a career high in ground-ball rate (49%) and saw his launch-angle sweet-spot rate drop to 28.9% (4th percentile). 

Additionally, he posted the lowest pull-air percentage of his career at 12%, a key indicator of home run production.

Simply put, Tatis wasn’t getting the ball in the air enough. In order to compete for an MVP with some of the other superstars in the National League, this is the top area Tatis will need to improve if he wants to throw his hat into the ring in 2026.

Final Thoughts

The case for Tatis is so fascinating.

He produced a six-win season while improving his plate discipline, becoming a dynamic leadoff hitter, and playing Platinum Glove-caliber defense, all without hitting for real power.

If Tatis can get back to elevating the ball at a better rate, it will allow him to recapture his power numbers before his suspension and injury. There will need to be some mechanical adjustments made, but if he can blend those with his new approach, he will be one of the most feared hitters in baseball.

We got to see what that could look like in this year’s World Baseball Classic, batting .400 with a 1.239 OPS in six games.

There is a world where Tatis goes 30-for-30 while continuing his elite play in right, which would make him at least an eight-win player, giving him a very real shot at winning his first NL MVP.

We all know how great a player Tatis is, now we will see if he can become complete.