Nico Hoerner Is the Perfect Trade Target for San Francisco

One of this year’s most important market mover’s free agency has finally come to a close. On Saturday night, we got word from ESPN’s Jeff Passan that Alex Bregman had agreed to a five-year deal with the Chicago Cubs.

While this signing closes the door on an interesting situation between Bregman and the Boston Red Sox, it potentially opens one for their partner in the Rafael Devers deal that spewed from it.

That is, of course, the San Francisco Giants.

It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for the team by the bay, and outside of two back-end rotation signings and some small bullpens deals, there haven’t been any significant additions.

One position that they could seek improvement at is second base. With the Cubs’ recent addition of perennial All-Star Bregman to their infield, Nico Hoerner could be a name dangled on the trade market.

The Situation

Naturally, the Cubs would be a better team with Hoerner on it. The Gold Glove-winning second baseman has been a consistent four-win player while having some of the best hit totals in baseball.

However, after signing Bregman to a $175 million deal, the organization is inching eerily close to Major League Baseball’s Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold.

Shedding the $12 million that Hoerner is supposed to make this season would place Chicago comfortably under that number. Of course, they could always hold on to Hoerner and finally act like the big-market team fans have been waiting for.

The activity on the second base market makes the Cubs second baseman as attractive as ever, though. Brendan Donovan is currently one of the most popular names on the trade market, and Hoerner does virtually everything better than Donovan.

With him entering a contract year and the second base market as hot as any on the trade front, Chicago could potentially get a haul for the 28-year-old.

Enter San Francisco

It’s been no secret that the Giants have shown interest in upgrading their second base position. Earlier this winter, they had interest in Ketel Marte, were considered one of the favorites to land Brendan Donovan, and actually checked in on Nico Hoerner back in mid-December.

The team’s best option at the position currently is Casey Schmitt. He’s shown flashes of what looks like an above-average bat and glove at second base, but he has yet to put it together across an entire season for San Francisco.

Hoerner, on the other hand, would supply some of the best second base certainty in all of baseball. His 17.5 fWAR since the start of the 2022 season leads all qualified second basemen, just edging out fellow All-Stars Marcus Semien (17.2) and Ketel Marte (17.1).

While he doesn’t hit for a ton of power, he’s coming off a career-best .297 average with three straight seasons of 150 or more hits. He’s also just one of three players who has averaged 160-plus hits and 30-plus stolen bases per season since 2022.

Clearly, he’d make a huge difference to the top of the Giants lineup.

With a combined strikeout rate of 26.4% between Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, and Matt Chapman, Hoerner’s ability to hit for average and avoid striking out would be the perfect compliment to the power-dependent core of the Giants.

The team’s president, Buster Posey, has also stressed pitching and defense throughout his entire tenure as an executive. That’s fittingly where Hoerner excels.

On top of winning two Gold Gloves across his career, he’s racked up 43 defensive runs saved, 51 outs above average, and a Fielding Run Value of 41 across his entire career at second base.

His defensive prowess would not only lock down second base for San Francisco, but it would take a ton of pressure off the shoulders of newer first basemen Rafael Devers and Bryce Eldridge.

Bay Area Roots

While these things typically make for better headlines than real reasons for business, Hoerner does have extremely strong ties to California’s Bay Area, as he was born and raised in Oakland, California.

Growing up an A’s fan, there’s likely a crosstown familiarity between Hoerner and the Giants’ organization. This all came before he played college baseball at Stanford University, where he’d first make a name for himself.

His .303/.351/.408 there would make him the Cubs’ first-round draft pick back in 2018. Hoerner is going to be a free agent after the 2026 season and there’s always a chance you’re getting just one season from him.

While this is all speculation, the hometown roots could make the possibility of an extension slightly more likely between him and the Giants. This would likely lockdown the entirety of arguably the best infield in baseball for the rest of the decade.

Final Thoughts

If the Giants are serious about turning a quiet offseason into something meaningful, this is a move that makes too much sense. However, a lot of that falls on the Cubs.

With them facing potential CBT pressure and Hoerner entering a contract year, the timing’s never been better. He’s never been flashy, but his elite defense, high-contact approach, and reliability bring exactly what San Francisco is looking for.

Mix in his Bay Area roots and the Giant’s typical focus on pitching and defense, and you get a natural fit. It’s the type of move that brings an elite level of consistency and certainty, which is exactly what the Giants should be looking for after several years of disappointment.