Giants Sign Matt Chapman to the Deal He Should Have Already Gotten

Matt Chapman grew up in California. He played college ball in California. He spent the first eight years of his professional career in the Oakland Athletics organization.

After a brief stint braving the cold in Canada, Chapman returned to the Golden State this past winter on a three-year, $54 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. Now, he may very well spend the rest of his career in California after inking a six-year, $151 million extension that will run from 2025 to 2030, his age-37 season.

Chapman was eligible to opt out of his initial contract with the Giants this winter. Given his excellent performance in 2024, it seemed all but certain he would choose to test the free agent market once again.

He would have been another year older than he was last year, but he also would have been coming off a significantly better walk year. Most importantly, he would no longer be saddled with a qualifying offer.

Chapman would have been a consensus top-10 free agent for the second year in a row.

Yet, the Giants decided they weren’t going to let that happen. Late on Wednesday night, the two sides agreed to terms on a six-year deal that will guarantee Chapman $151 million. He’ll earn a $25 million annual salary, in addition to a $1 million signing bonus.

The deal does not include any deferred money, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

Funnily enough, six years and $151 million is pretty close to what most people expected Chapman would sign for last offseason.

Just Baseball’s Tim Kelly predicted a six-year deal worth $138 million. Ben Clemens of FanGraphs predicted five years and $120 million. The team at MLB Trade Rumors went with six years and $150 million.

Thus, when you consider Chapman’s $20 million salary in 2024, he essentially signed for seven years and $171 million. His initial contract might have been disappointing, but ultimately, he bet on himself and came out on top.

Chapman has been consistently excellent since his rookie campaign. He is a Gold Glove defender with plus power, good plate discipline, and a career 118 wRC+. His 30.3 FanGraphs WAR puts him among the top 25 players – that’s pitchers and hitters – since his debut season in 2017.

There should have been a team that offered him this exact contract last winter, and presumably, he would have accepted. It’s a perfectly reasonable value for a player of his talents.

Instead, the entire market lowballed Chapman. No one who had watched him play over the past seven seasons expected him to receive as little as a $54 million guarantee.

Now, the Giants are paying the price for undervaluing Chapman. If they gave him this exact contract last winter, it would have paid him $25 million a year through his age-36 season. Instead, they’ll be paying him that hefty salary through age 37.

That’s hardly the end of the world, especially for a team with deep pockets like San Francisco, but surely Farhan Zaidi would appreciate a re-do on this one.

And with that in mind, one has to wonder if the Giants are working on a similar extension with Blake Snell.

Will the Giants Extend Blake Snell Next?

Snell, too, can opt out of his contract this offseason. Like Chapman, he is no longer eligible for the qualifying offer (having received one last winter), so if he leaves in free agency, the Giants will not receive any compensation.

They would have paid him $32 million for a single season in which he only made about 20 starts and in which the team (most likely) missed the playoffs.

I understand the sunk cost fallacy. I’m not saying the Giants should extend Snell just because they already invested so much money in him last winter.

What I am saying is that Snell is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the Giants should take full advantage of their exclusive negotiating window with him before the end of the season.

Snell’s performance this season (after a rocky start) has proven beyond a doubt that he, like Chapman, should have received a much bigger contract last winter. If the Giants were willing to rectify that mistake in Chapman’s case, one would think they would be similarly amenable to extending the two-time Cy Young winner.

It’s harder to guess if Snell would be interested in an extension. For what it’s worth, both Snell and Chapman are Scott Boras clients. If Boras advised Chapman to sign an extension with San Francisco, it stands to reason he might have the same recommendation for Snell.

How Matt Chapman’s Extension Affects Alex Bregman

Chapman’s extension could also have an impact on Alex Bregman, who is now, indisputably, the best impending free agent at the hot corner.

Bregman is a year younger than Chapman. He also has a higher offensive ceiling and two top-five MVP finishes on his resume. From 2017-23, Bregman was the better player almost every year.

However, Chapman has outperformed Bregman in 2024. The two have similar numbers at the plate, but Chapman is a superior baserunner and a far superior defender. What’s more, Bregman will certainly have a qualifying offer dragging him down if/when he reaches free agency this winter.

With Chapman off the market, Bregman will have significantly more leverage in negotiations. Teams that might have preferred Chapman will have to change course. And teams that always preferred Bregman can no longer feign interest in Chapman as a negotiating tactic.

Alternatively, if Bregman wants to stay in Houston, he now has a great starting point for extension talks with the Astros.