What We Know About the 2026 Hall of Fame Election So Far

We are getting closer and closer to the reveal of the 2026 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame election results, and the 148 revealed ballots (as of Jan. 8) have given us hints of what to expect when the results are announced on Jan. 20. Although only 35% of total ballots have been revealed, some of the themes of this election cycle have already begun to show themselves.

This year, the BBWAA is doing something it has not done in a long time – increasing the number of voices in this process. For years, Hall of Fame voting has become a more exclusive activity among baseball writers. Last year, nearly 200 fewer writers cast a ballot than they did 14 years prior in 2011.

According to the Hall of Fame tracker managed by Ryan Thibodaux, an estimated 424 ballots are expected to be cast in this year’s election – 30 more than last year and the most in any election since 2019.

These new voters are writers who recently crossed 10 years of BBWAA membership. They are typically younger voters who believe in a bigger hall. Thirty of the first 148 ballots revealed come from first-time voters. That is already the highest number of first-time voters who have publicly participated in any election since tracking began.

In a year that was already expected to see big gains for returning candidates, this addition of younger, more open-minded voters is a cherry on top for players looking to climb the ladder to 75%. So far, that’s exactly what we’ve seen.

Most of the notable candidates on this year’s ballot are comfortably overperforming with first-time voters. Although more votes are now needed for induction, this new wave of younger voters is setting up a big year for several candidates.

All numbers in this article are up-to-date as of Jan. 8, 2026.

Félix’s Stunning Surge

Without question, the most intriguing development of this Hall of Fame cycle has been the tsunami in support gained by Félix Hernández.

King Félix finished his first year on the ballot with a modest 20.6% of the vote – a good start with a long way to go. Last year, it felt like his eventual induction was likely, but would occur towards the back end of his time on the ballot. Now, it seems inevitable and soon.

Félix currently sits at 58.1% of the vote, close to triple what he put up in year one. With the fourth-most votes of any player on the ballot, he has jumped A-Rod, Manny and Pettitte in voting percentage since last year.

Thirty-one of the 86 votes Félix has received have been from writers who did not vote for him in his debut year. He has changed the minds of nearly half the possible voting base so far and has won over nearly all of the first-time voters.

This has been a remarkable gain. Félix currently sits at +30 net votes gained, the most of any returning candidate on this ballot by 10 votes.

With another 60-80 ballots likely to be revealed before the final results come out, Hernández has already surpassed any net gain by a player before the results were revealed in each of the last two election cycles. He is putting up numbers that have seldom been seen since this process has been tracked.

The tracker currently puts Hernández on pace to finish this cycle with 50.3% of the vote, a potential 30% year-over-year increase.

If that holds true, it would be the largest year-to-year gain in BBWAA voting history. That record is currently held by Barry Larkin, who climbed 24.3% from 2011 to his election year in 2012. Hernández would need to eclipse 45.2% this year to claim that record.

Félix will not be elected to the Hall of Fame this year, and he might not be elected next year either. But the batch of ballots we’ve seen this cycle has made it clear – his induction is something we should come to expect in the not-so-distant future.

Smooth Sailing as Expected for Beltrán

Carlos Beltrán came into this election cycle as the only candidate with a clear path to 75%. After he received 70.3% of the vote last year and missed induction by just 19 votes, his 2026 induction became inevitable.

What Beltrán needed to gain this year, he has already compiled from first-year voters alone. His name has been checked on all 30 of the debut writers’ ballots. On top of that, he’s also netted a gain of seven votes from writers that didn’t vote for him last year.

Overall, he currently sits at 88.5% and needs just 67.8% of the remaining vote to stay above the 75% threshold. It should be a sweat-free year as Beltrán awaits his call from the hall.

But it’s not always like this. In fact, it’s been common for recent contenders on the Hall’s doorstep to crawl across the 75% mark on the way to induction.

Scott Rolen finished 2022 with 63.2% of the vote, making him the most likely candidate for induction in 2023. Going into election night that year, he had only netted 10 additional votes, barely enough to get him over the line with just five votes to spare.

In that same year, Todd Helton climbed to 72.2% of the vote, making him a sure-fire candidate for the 2024 cycle. When the results were revealed, he had only seen a net gain of four votes – once again, just enough to get him over the line, making it by eight votes. It had taken a net gain of 14 by the post-election public vote to get him there.

It seems like Beltrán won’t be going through this level of stress come Jan. 20. With seven net votes already gained and a new electorate that unanimously loves him, Beltrán will be sailing through the doors in Cooperstown this year.

Andruw Jones on the Bubble

Andruw Jones will one day be elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA. Whether it happens this year or next remains to be seen. As things currently stand, he has received 83.1% of the vote – enough to get in right now, but not enough to ensure it will stick.

Jones rallied for 66.2% of the vote last year in a cycle that wasn’t as kind to him. His 4.6% gain from 2024-2025 was his lowest gain between years since his first two cycles on the ballot from 2018-2019. He is now seeking a 8.8% gain to sneak into the Hall, and he’s already pacing better than he was at this time last year.

In 2025, Jones posted a net gain of 10 votes leading up to the election. This year, he is already up to +10 after 148 ballots. Last year, Jones polled at 60% with first-time voters, underperforming with writers being welcomed into the process. This year, he’s appeared on 27 of the 30 first-timers’ ballots.

Whether or not these efforts will be enough to make up the 35 votes by which Jones missed induction in 2025 is to be determined.

As time goes on, it continues to look like this one will come down to the wire. If I had to guess, Jones will be above 75% before the results are revealed, but the final tally will put him just below the line, setting him up for a 10th-year induction in 2027.

Other Trends

Andy Pettitte, fresh off an impressive 14.4% gain in 2025, is picking up where he left off with a +18 net gain so far this year. At 55.9% right now, this is the kind of pace he needs to stay on to keep his Hall of Fame hopes alive.

Another person still fighting is Bobby Abreu, who is currently sitting at 38.5% of the vote. At +11 right now, he is quickly approaching his personal record of +16 in 2023. Others seeing double-digit gains include Chase Utley (66.9%) and Dustin Pedroia (27%).