The Case for a Jordan Beck Breakout Year

Another year came and went for the Colorado Rockies, as they had their third straight 100-loss season. To make matters even worse, their 119 losses were the most in franchise history. Despite what their record may show, however, the Rockies did have some promising moments.

From Hunter Goodman breaking the franchise’s single-season catcher home run record to Mickey Moniak’s surprising breakout campaign, this season had some underrated moments. However, one player took a step forward that seemingly went unnoticed: outfielder Jordan Beck.

A few seasons ago, Beck was widely regarded as a consensus top-five prospect in their system. While the potential remained, Beck had yet to adjust to big-league pitching, leading to questions surrounding whether or not his skills would actually translate.

His numbers may not immediately jump off the page, but Beck deserves some credit for the step forward he showcased offensively this season. Most importantly, Beck laid the foundation for a potential breakout during the 2026 season if he can refine a few aspects of his game.

If the Rockies want to take the next step forward as a franchise, his breakout will be one of the most important pieces of their future. His underlying numbers point in the right direction, and a refined approach could be the missing piece of the puzzle.

Let’s dive in and break down exactly why Beck is poised for a breakout in 2026.

Flashes of Promise

Although nothing may jump out on the surface, Beck showed some promise in his numbers this season. He slashed .258/.317/.416 with 16 homers, a 90 wRC+, and an fWAR just under 1.0. However, when taking a closer look at his underlying metrics, I start to have a ton of hope in his 2026 season.

For starters, slugging 16 homers in his first season as a starter in the Rockies’ lineup was an impressive achievement for the 24-year-old. Also, Beck’s barrel rate of nearly 10% is a very positive sign of his slugging ability.

Considering his power was one of his best tools in the minors, seeing this develop in the big leagues was super encouraging.

Of course, Beck’s power gets a boost from playing in Coors Field. However, Beck hit eight homers at home and on the road, meaning this can play outside of his home field. It also helps that Beck’s launch angle sweet spot rate ranked in the 74th percentile, another good indication of his strength.

Although his average exit velocity was lacking, his max exit velocity was quite the opposite story. His exit velocity reached 113.8 mph this season, an increase of just over two mph from last season.

For reference, Bryce Harper and Eugenio Suárez reached the same mark this season, putting Beck’s max exit velocity inside the top 57 hitters in the sport.

Another positive aspect of his game was that Beck destroyed four seamers, a huge step forward compared to last season. He raised his xwOBA against the pitch from .260 in 2024 to .401 this season, according to Baseball Savant.

Also, his strikeout rate against heaters dipped over 10%. Considering Beck sees heaters over 30% of the time, his success against the pitch will be huge moving forward.

Beck excelled at hitting line drives this season, yet another important aspect of his batted ball data. He hit line drives over 26% of the time, and with line drives being the type of batted ball with the highest odds to be hits, this is a good indication for next season.

Beck’s speed is another area of his game that grades out at the top of the sport. His sprint speed finished in the 83rd percentile, which makes sense considering he nearly stole 20 bases this season. While his range is lacking a little defensively, his speed may give him some more upside in the outfield moving forward.

Overall, when taking a closer look at Beck’s underlying numbers during the 2025 season, you can begin to see the early groundwork for a breakout. With his encouraging batted ball data, success against fastballs, and his speed, Beck showcased a versatile set of strengths this season.

The Rough Edges of Beck’s Game

While there’s a lot to be excited about surrounding Beck’s 2025 season, he’s still a very incomplete player overall. But with some small adjustments and refining of his approach, we could be looking at a legitimate breakout candidate next season.

Beck’s plate discipline is where he’s going to need to improve the most if he wants to succeed next season. He struck out neatly 30% of the time this season while whiffing over 31% of the time as well. While this is concerning enough on the surface, there are more levels to his plate discipline struggles.

For instance, Beck’s plate discipline struggles are largely due to his struggles against breaking balls. Beck whiffed over 40% of the time against them while posting an xwOBA of just .230 against them, which is a massive red flag to say the least.

Beck’s struggles with spin don’t end there, as he struggled to post high exit velocities against breaking balls also. His average exit velocity of 84.1 was super alarming, as Beck truly struggled to find the barrel when facing spin.

His overall approach needs some work as well, as he simultaneously struggles to make contact and limit how much he expands the strike zone. He was just above league average when it came to swings out of the strike zone, as his o-swing rate sat just above 29%. However, there’s still a lot of room to grow here.

His overall contact rate sat just shy of 69%, which placed him inside the bottom 15% of the league. It gets even worse, as Beck’s contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone sat in the bottom 10% of the league. To put it simply, if Beck wants to maximize his potential, he desperately needs to make more contact, especially against pitches inside the strike zone.

When watching Beck hit, it really seems like he’s selling out to hit a fastball, and not doing a great job at adjusting once he gets a breaking ball. In fact, his swing totally collapses when he gets a breaking ball instead of a heater, leading him to be thrown off at the plate.

The video above is a perfect representation of what seems to be Beck’s issue at the plate. When he gets the fastball he’s waiting for, he’s all over it. However, Beck struggles to pick up the breaking ball, leading to a full collapse of his swing.

This issue likely led to the concerning numbers we see in some aspects of his game. If he can refine his approach, the rest of his problems could improve significantly, as his struggles with spin will no longer hold him back from his full potential.

How Beck Can Unlock His Full Potential

Now that we’ve covered the pros and cons of Beck’s 2025 campaign, we can look to answer the question: How can Jordan Beck unlock his full potential next season?

The answer jumps off the page when looking at the data: Beck must refine his approach to better handle spin. If he wants any chance at succeeding, he’ll need to do a better job at putting up competitive swings against breaking balls rather than giving pitchers an immediate upper hand.

His batted ball numbers give me a tremendous amount of faith in him if he can make this one adjustment. With his exit velocity ranking within the league’s top 57 hitters and the raw power he’s already showcased, the foundation is here for a big season.

Also, if Beck can refine his approach to better handle spin, there’s a very good chance his whiff rates and strikeout numbers will shrink. He’ll be in a better position to lay off breaking balls outside of the strike zone, which could make a large difference in his overall performance at the plate.

If he can shrink his strike zone, this may also make opposing pitchers have to throw him in-zone fastballs. This would work out tremendously for Beck, as he put up an xSLG of almost .550 against heaters. He’d have many more opportunities to do significant damage by following this formula.

While this season was dark for the Rockies, the positive takeaways from Beck are a huge sign of good things on the horizon. If Beck can take a leap forward, the Rockies’ offense will be one step closer to doing some damage.