Which Outsider Team Has the Best Path to an AL Playoff Berth?

In the first week of September, the standings appear almost certain to stay the same for the rest of the season. After all, following five grueling months of playing baseball six days per week, how could any team reach a higher level of play than what we have previously witnessed?

Stagnancy in the projected playoff field has been more extreme in this season than in most others. The teams currently occupying playoff spots have been holding a top-six record in their respective leagues since July 30, when the Texas Rangers owned a share of the final AL Wild Card slot. Since then, the only movement has been seeding changes among the field of 12.

Even though the same clubs have been clinging to their playoff berths for most of the second half, Wild Card standings are fragile most years. It’s reasonable to assume that a team currently out of contention could still find a way to overtake a longtime postseason favorite.

Each year, some of the season’s most exciting stories are from teams on the outside looking in at this point in the year. Good teams may hit a September swoon, while squads that appeared to be on the periphery for much of the year could assert themselves as worthy of a last-second bid for the postseason. Nothing is certain until a playoff berth is clinched.

Recent examples of surprising September surges to earn a playoff berth include the 2011 Cardinals and Rays, each was 9.5 games out of the playoffs on September 1; as well as the 2012 Athletics, who were five games back of the division lead with nine games to go and finished 8-1 to win the AL West crown.

As the playoff field has grown over the years, we have seen fewer massive surprises like those. Expanded playoffs means that those teams who, at this point, are fifth and sixth in their league get in more easily, while those who are seventh or eighth best may just not be good enough to overtake those above them.

Let’s now identify which of this year’s outsiders are most likely to make a run at a playoff berth.

Texas Rangers

Record: 73-69 (0.5 GB of final AL Wild Card, 4.5 GB of AL West lead)

Remaining Schedule

The Rangers have been surging of late – they’re 9-2 over their last eleven games. Given their recent ascent and the Mariners’ recent struggles, Texas is right back in the playoff mix.

They still have 11 games remaining on their schedule against current playoff teams, which won’t be easy. But, the Rangers have the unique opportunity of getting to play five of those against the current leader of their division, the Houston Astros.

If Texas could win at least four of six in these last two series (they beat Houston on Friday night), suddenly, they would have to make up at most four games on Houston to catch them for the division lead. Given that the Rangers have allowed the fewest runs in all of baseball this year, they should be able to hang around in every game.

Despite their great pitching, one thing that his hampered the Rangers’ ascent to a Wild Card spot has been their mediocre offense. Their team ranks 22nd in baseball in wRC+, while the lowest-ranked current playoff team is 14th (Houston). It remains to be seen if the Rangers’ offense will hit enough for them to continue to gain ground on those ahead of them in the standings.

Another factor that will complicate Texas’ postseason push is their recent bout with the injury bug. Some of Texas’ most impactful players are slated to miss significant time: Corey Seager (appendectomy), Marcus Semien (left foot fracture), and Nathan Eovaldi (rotator cuff strain). Only Seager stands a chance to return this season.

The Rangers’ bullpen has a lot of decent contributors, but also no lights-out closer. Their late-inning mix consists of Shawn Armstrong, Chris Martin, Robert Garcia, Phil Maton, and Hoby Milner. This group has held its own, but it’s hard to feel good about the Rangers holding down the fort in close games.

Texas has a bona fide ace in Jacob deGrom, but injuries have presented a lot of question marks on their roster. They have the best run differential among AL West teams (+91), and perhaps the Rangers will continue to catch lightning in a bottle through this final month.

Kansas City Royals

Record: 72-69 (1 GB of final AL Wild Card, 8.5 GB of AL Central lead)

Remaining Schedule

Looking to build off of a successful 2024 season that led to an ALDS appearance, the Royals have hung around in the middle of the pack for much of this year.

Kansas City’s schedule appears a bit lighter than that of their competition, but playing nine games against current playoff teams still won’t be easy. Sweeping Seattle head-to-head would really enhance the Royals’ chances of sneaking into the last Wild Card spot.

The Royals’ lineup has some playmakers but is shallow as a whole. Bobby Witt Jr. is still doing his thing, posting a 6.9 fWAR thus far with 21 OAA at shortstop. Maikel Garcia has taken a nice leap this year, as he’s now a five-win player according to fWAR. Vinnie Pasquantino has hit 29 home runs. Outside of those three, the Royals aren’t particularly scary on offense.

The starting pitching for the Royals is decent, but nothing too intimidating. Michael Wacha leads the staff in fWAR (3.5) and has a 3.45 ERA in 159 innings. Noah Cameron has been a nice breakout story, pitching to a 3.03 ERA in 113 innings. Michael Lorenzen, Ryan Bergert, and Stephen Kolek round out their current rotation, none of whom are particularly scary to the opposition.

Kansas City does have more talented pitchers; they just aren’t healthy at the moment. The best Royal arm from last year, Cole Ragans, has missed the majority of the season with a shoulder injury. He’s about to begin a rehab assignment, but he’s likely to be on a limited workload when he returns. Kris Bubic, the team’s breakout starter this season, had a 2.55 ERA in 116.1 innings but is done for the year with a shoulder injury of his own.

The Royals are the only team in realistic playoff contention with a negative run differential (-6), so they’ve been fortunate to stay in the mix. Despite valiant efforts from their pitching staff, they have the worst offense in the Junior Circuit by runs scored. Kansas City needs to get the bats going to make a run at the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 71-70 (2 GB of final AL Wild Card, 11 GB of AL East lead)

Remaining Schedule

Just when you think the Tampa Bay Rays are out of the hunt, they rip off 10 wins in their last 13 games. Now, they have a chance to make the AL playoff field include four AL East teams.

The Rays, like the Rangers, still have a large portion of their remaining games against current playoff teams. However, unlike Texas, Tampa Bay is unlikely to win their division even if they beat up on the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays in their remaining seven games head-to-head. Being in fourth place, they would simply have too many teams to leapfrog.

Given the Mariners’ struggles recently, the Rays are right in the Wild Card mix and could prove to be a dangerous team. Junior Caminero has blasted 40 home runs in his age-21 season and is only getting better as the year progresses. Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe are dangerous hitters as well, and the team has no shortage of speed.

Jonathan Aranda was in the midst of a career year (141 wRC+) but fractured his wrist in early August. He has resumed swinging, so a return before the season’s end to further enhance the Tampa Bay lineup is in play.

On the pitching end, the Rays may have moved Taj Bradley and Zack Littell at the deadline, but their rotation still has good pieces. Ryan Pepiot is rocking a 15-inning scoreless streak, and Drew Rasmussen has been cruising to a sub-three ERA.

There isn’t exactly an easy road ahead for the Rays. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Cubs are among the best teams in the sport, and the Guardians are fighting for their playoff lives. Even the Orioles, as a divisional opponent, will be no pushover.

This Rays team has a lot of talent, though. They’ve been up and down for much of the year, but Tampa Bay can put up runs in a hurry.

The Verdict

None of these three teams, the Rangers, Royals, or Rays, will play each other head-to-head again this season. However, they all have to play the Cleveland Guardians (70-70, 2.5 GB of AL WC), which could easily vault Cleveland into the final American League playoff spot as well.

For any of these four teams to separate themselves from one another and the Mariners, they have to beat good teams. Most of them haven’t fared as well as Seattle has against good competition.

Realistically, any of these five teams has a shot to make the playoffs. Cleveland has the best chance to do damage to its competitors directly, but the Guardians do also have six games remaining against Detroit.

The question for the Guardians, as is the question for the Royals, is whether they will score. Cleveland is 14th in the AL in runs scored, just eight runs ahead of Kansas City.

Seattle still has to play Houston and the Dodgers, but the Mariners likely have the easiest path to earning this last Wild Card slot. Considering that I picked them to win the AL West over Houston less than two weeks ago (before they went 3-7 in their last ten), I think the Mariners are the most talented team of this bunch as presently constructed.

Yet, I was tasked with picking an outsider that I believe has the best chance to overtake Seattle, so I’ll side with the Rays. I think that Tampa Bay is the next most talented team in all facets behind the Mariners, and they’ve shown that by nearly matching Seattle’s record against teams better than .500.

The Rays score more than any team hanging around in the AL Wild Card race, and their pitching is at least comparable to their competition’s. The difficult opponents they have yet to play may give them one of the harder paths theoretically, but I think that Tampa Bay being the best team of this bunch gives them the best path to a playoff berth, among the current outsiders.