Where Does a Healthy Alek Manoah Fit on the Blue Jays?

Right-handed pitcher Alek Manoah has endured a long journey to recovery from Tommy John surgery, and he could potentially factor into the Toronto Blue Jays‘ push for the playoffs in 2025. He has thrown three rehab starts thus far for three different minor league affiliates of the Blue Jays, and his return to big league action might not be that far away.

Even though Manoah has gone through such a long process and certainly has the hunger to return to the MLB level, what kind of role will he be able to play on this Blue Jays team this season?

Toronto’s rotation already consists of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer, and Max Scherzer, and the Jays’ recent acquisition of 2020 American League Cy Young Award-winning starter Shane Bieber from the Cleveland Guardians throws another wrench into the plans.

It’s difficult enough for Toronto to have to decide whether to move to a six-man rotation or move a starter to the bullpen down the stretch, but the conversation will become even more difficult when Manoah eventually makes his way back. He’s been a starter for his whole career…is a move to a long-relief role in the bullpen even in the cards?

Can Alek Manoah Return to Form?

Manoah was one of the league’s strongest young pitchers for a two-year stretch from 2021-22, and he even finished third in Cy Young voting in 2022. He notched a cumulative record in those two seasons of 25-9 with a 2.60 ERA over 308.1 innings of work. His 307 strikeouts to just 91 walks was another factor behind Manoah’s success, as he was simply overpowering hitters on a consistent basis.

His 2022 season brought so much hope to Blue Jays fans that their next ace was wearing #6, as he pitched to a fantastic 2.24 ERA over nearly 200 innings. His Baseball Savant page from 2022 is one of the most satisfying in recent memory, filled with red bubbles indicating elite rankings among MLB arms.

Then the 2023 campaign came and went, and Manoah seemingly lost his feel for the big-league mound, seeing his BB/9 rate nearly triple from 2.3 to 6.1.

Manoah’s 3.9 fWAR in 2022 turned into a -0.4 fWAR in 2023, and he only limited opposing batters to two or fewer runs in seven of his 19 starts that year.

Suffice it to say, the 2023 season was one to forget for Manoah and the Blue Jays. While he was essentially Toronto’s ace in 2022, the team sorely missed his once-dominant presence on the mound in 2023, and the team saw no playoff success.

His 2024 season was cut short due to Tommy John surgery in June of 2024, and his road to recovery over the last year or so has seen him working as hard as he can to return healthy for the Blue Jays.

He’s been keeping baseball as mementos to mark his steps towards a full recovery, and soon he might be able to add one that marks his return to the MLB. If there’s even a chance he can rediscover the success of his 2021 and 2022 seasons, he’ll be a sight for sore eyes in Toronto.

Where Does Manoah Fit In?

While Alek Manoah used to hold the number one spot in Toronto’s rotation, a lot has happened since then to both Manoah and the Blue Jays. All of Toronto’s five starters have been turning in strong outings lately.

Bieber is also rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and eyeing a return to MLB very soon, so he’s going to get a shot to earn a rotation spot before Manoah does. He’s made some strong rehab outings with Triple-A Buffalo following his trade from Cleveland at this year’s trade deadline, and it seems as though he’ll be given an opportunity to join Toronto’s rotation soon.

Additionally, Bieber has a player option for the 2026 season, and if he exercises it, then he will once again take up a rotation spot that might make Manoah’s potential return a bit more difficult. Both of these pitchers have showcased incredible stuff on the mound in their rehab processes.

If Manoah takes on a long relief role, it could be greatly beneficial for the Blue Jays, as occasional poor outings from their starters come at the price of tiring their bullpen arms.

Eric Lauer’s three-inning outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 10 saw seven of Toronto’s eight relievers take the mound. If Manoah can fill a multi-inning relief role, his value down the stretch and into the playoffs could be just as important as that of a starting pitcher.

However, if the Blue Jays feel that there simply isn’t a spot for Manoah to squeeze his way onto the MLB roster by the end of the season, it might be in their best interests to keep him at Triple-A to hone his craft a bit more before eyeing a big-league return in 2026. This might not be a bad decision because it would eliminate the risk of Manoah’s potentially shaky return having an impact on their playoff hopes.

Closing Thoughts

As much as Alek Manoah’s journey back to the big leagues has to do with his own performance and health, there are many other factors that might have an impact on his ability to pitch in MLB this season. To that point, Toronto’s acquisition of Shane Bieber might have been made with the explicit thought that Manoah wouldn’t be ready by the end of the season, but only time will tell.

Bieber’s strong rehab outings seem to be an indicator that he’ll play a crucial role in the remainder of Toronto’s 2025 season and potential postseason appearance this year. Whether Manoah will be a factor at the MLB level as the season comes to a close soon has yet to be seen. Moreover, the Blue Jays have to wonder, if he comes back, which version of Alek Manoah will he be?