Can Garrett Crochet Challenge Tarik Skubal for AL Cy Young?

As the month of August looms, the race for the American League Cy Young increasingly looks like a two-horse race. Reigning winner Tarik Skubal is still leading the charge, but with Garrett Crochet close behind and ahead of other candidates such as Framber Valdez, Jacob deGrom, Hunter Brown, and others.

The pair of lefties each lead the league in ERA, strikeouts, and fWAR by a comfortable margin.

Skubal looks like a clear frontrunner, leading Crochet in fWAR (5.2 to 4.5) and FIP (1.91 to 2.41). But the race may be closer than most are to believe.

They share an identical ERA (2.19) with Crochet posting more innings (135.1 to 127.2) and narrowly leading in strikeouts (165 to 164). While Skubal may be poised to defend his title, the door has yet to close for Crochet to win his first career Cy Young.

How did we get here?

Tarik Skubal

After winning Cy Young in 2024 with all 30 first-place votes, Skubal has found a way to rise to a new level this year. Changes to his arsenal and approach have helped him lower his already impressive ERA and FIP from last season by considerable margins (0.20 runs in ERA and 0.58 in FIP).

Skubal’s elevated success in 2025 starts and ends with his changeup. It is a pitch he’s thrown progressively more since 2021, and it is now at the heart of his arsenal.

At 32.1% usage, the changeup has overtaken the 4-Seamer as the most used pitch in his arsenal. Opponents are hitting .157 and slugging .203 in 175 plate appearances ending against Skubal’s changeup.

Part of the increase in usage is because Skubal has become more comfortable throwing his changeup to lefties. He’s gone from throwing it 10.6% of the time last year to lefties to 21.4% this year. The results have been stunning.

Lowest opp. AVG vs Changups vs LHB (as SP, min. 50 changeups thrown)

Tarik Skubal – .053

Stephen Kolek – .071

Corbin Burnes – .083

Carlos Carrasco – .111

Cade Horton – .115

Overall, Skubal’s changeup has produced a 47.8% Whiff rate and 83.7 mph average exit velocity. Its 3.1 Run Value per 100 pitches is not only up from 0.8 last year, it also ranks first among all changeups in baseball. This improvement could be a result of a different shape Skubal put on the pitch this year.

While throwing his changeup more this year, Skubal traded off two inches of drop for two extra mph. As a result, batters have been behind it. In 2024, 44.2% of batted balls against his changeup were hit to the pull side. This year, the pull rate is down to 41.3%.

On fly balls, opponents went from pulling 47.1% against Skubal’s changeup to just 21.1% this year. This is behind the home run rate on fly balls, going from 11.8% against the changeup last year to 5.3% this year.

The rest of Skubal’s arsenal has performed to expectation this year, enabling him to continue his run of dominance. But despite that, he isn’t alone in the Cy Young race quite yet.

Garrett Crochet

Like Skubal, Crochet is also making changes to his pitch usage this year. In his first year with the Red Sox, he has decreased the usage on his 4-Seam Fastball from 53.6% last year to 40.5% this year.

The wealth is being redistributed to his sweeper and sinker, where the usage is up a combined 14.3%. Opponents are hitting .177 and slugging .201 collectively against these pitches this year, with a whiff rate of 30.1%.

Highest RV/100 on Sinkers & Sweepers (min. 500 thrown)

Garrett Crochet – 2.95

Steven Matz – 1.85

Framber Valdez – 1.69

Mitch Keller – 1.37

David Peterson – 1.34

And much like Skubal, these pitches have also been reworked.

But unlike Skubal, Crochet traded velocity for movement on these pitches. While his sinker produced a small sample of results last year, the impacts of this change are clear on his sweeper.

Its 4.0 RV/100 is the highest of all sweepers in the sport. Its average exit velocity against has gone from 85.1 mph last year to 83.1 mph this year. Its ground ball rate against has gone from 33.3% last year to 55.4% this year.

The average batted ball against Crochet’s sweeper this year is a softly hit ground ball. Even if the Red Sox infield defense ranks 29th in the majors in Outs Above Average, this is still ideal. In 2024, opponents recorded two doubles, a triple and five home runs against this pitch. In 2025, the only extra base hits it’s allowed have been three doubles.

In all this, Crochet’s 4-Seamer is also his worst pitch statistically. Opponents are hitting .241 and slugging .440 against it. Both aren’t bad numbers, but they make for a -0.2 RV/100, the lowest in his arsenal. Throwing that pitch 14% less and replacing it with his sinker and sweeper is a clear upgrade for his pitch usage.

The road ahead

At this point in the season, it’s impossible to know exactly who these pitchers will face the rest of the year, but we can project. If Skubal and Crochet pitched in every fifth game for the rest of the season and made all of their scheduled starts, their opponents until season’s end would be as follows:

Should the stars align for the next two months, we could get a Skubal vs Crochet matchup at Fenway on the penultimate day of the regular season. Perhaps it’s a matchup that could decide who wins this race.

But before that, Both pitchers will need to go through a gauntlet of opponents to stay in the fight. Skubal’s remaining projected opponents have a combined winning percentage of .507 while Crochet’s are at .505.

As of right now, the biggest separating factor for Skubal over Crochet is his strikeout and walk rate numbers. The Tigers ace bests the Red Sox top arm in K% (34% to 30.6%) and walk rate (3.3% to 6.7%). Crochet will need to close this gap to keep Skubal from running away with the award.

Skubal’s remaining projected opponents have a 22.9% K% this season against lefties and a 8.2% BB%, both numbers nearly identical to the MLB average. For Crochet, it’s a 23.3% K% and 8.0% BB%. While it’s not a drastic difference, it’s a clear path to inch closer to Skubal’s K/BB numbers before the end of the season.