Will Tarik Skubal Run Away With the AL Cy Young Award?
Skubal has been outstanding this season, more than doubling his career bWAR. In doing so, he has the inside track for the AL Cy Young.
For long stretches of the season, it looked like the American League Cy Young Award would be a wide-open, hotly-contested race. Breakout stars like Tanner Houck, Luis Gil, and Garrett Crochet all put up amazing numbers to start the year, and at given times, all seemed like legitimate contenders for the award.
As the season has progressed, though, only one American League pitcher has continued to perform at the same torrid pace with which many came out of the gate. That pitcher is Tarik Skubal.
In his age-27 season, Skubal has had a breakout that has boosted his personal stardom and put the Detroit Tigers into playoff contention. As of September 13, the Tigers are 3.5 games out of the Wild Card picture with 15 games left to play.
This season has been the culmination of Skubal’s consistent year-over-year improvements, a trend that he has maintained throughout his entire career. He has dropped his ERA by over half a run each year up until this season.
He has enjoyed another significant drop this year, going from 2.80 to 2.50. His ERA+ has also improved year over year.
2024 AL Cy Young Odds: Tarik Skubal Is the Heavy Favorite
According to the BetMGM odds, Skubal is a -5000 favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians has the best odds of pulling off an upset at +2000, while Corbin Burnes of the Orioles has the third-highest odds at +3000.
Why Tarik Skubal Deserves the AL Cy Young
Already at a career high in innings for a single season, Skubal leads the American League in winning percentage, ERA, strikeouts, ERA+, bWAR and FIP. He is tied for the league lead in wins.
By dominating in both the newer analytics, as well as the more traditional measures of pitcher success, Skubal will appeal to all Cy Young voters, regardless of their preferred statistics.
As if these statistics were not enough, Skubal ranks second in all of baseball in WHIP, fourth in innings pitched, sixth in strikeouts per nine and walks per nine, and eighth in hits per nine. His elite command is demonstrated through his 6.48 strikeout-to-walk ratio, good for third in all of MLB.
Skubal has also been a model of consistency across the season, failing to complete six innings in just five of his 29 starts and posting an incredible 20 quality starts over the course of the season.
Given that he has thrown more innings this season than any other year of his career, this start-to-start durability and quality is remarkable.
In short, Skubal is at least in the top 10, if not leading the league, in every major statistical category for pitchers. He has simply been the best pitcher in the American League this year, and it is not overly close.
How Tarik Skubal Has Been So Dominant
Now that Skubal’s success has been established, it is time to discuss exactly how he has been so dominant.
It should come as no surprise that Skubal’s pitching run value is tied for the best in baseball, with a fastball run value in the 99th percentile, an offspeed run value in the 94th percentile, and a breaking run value in the 78th percentile.
Skubal’s xERA, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and fastball velocity are all in the 90th percentile or better. Clearly, these numbers show that Skubal has an elite ability to miss bats.
Even when hitters have managed to put the bat on the ball against Skubal, he has been masterful in limiting hard contact.
His opponents have an expected batting average of just .213, which lands Skubal in the 85th percentile. His hard-hit percentage of just 33.6%, which also Skubal in the top 15% of baseball, is another clear indication that he has the stuff to induce weak contact seemingly at will.
Skubal’s entire pitch mix has been devastating this year, with an opponents’ average below .223 on each of his pitches. He has four pitches that he features between 15% and 32% of the time, and he uses his deep arsenal to keep hitters off balance and constantly guessing in the batter’s box.
The biggest change that Skubal has made to his arsenal this season is an almost 10% increase in his sinker usage, making him a true four-pitch pitcher. The pitch has performed well for him, with opponents hitting just .210 and slugging a measly .312 against it.
Tarik Skubal Is a Bona Fide Ace
In the end, Skubal has shown over the course of an entire season that he is a bona fide ace. He has been by far the best pitcher in the American League.
His performance has shown that he deserves to be mentioned among the best pitchers in the game today, and winning his first Cy Young Award will go a long way in putting Skubal in those conversations.
Stats updated prior to games on September 13.
Written by