The Problem With MLB’s Modern Playoff Structure

We’re getting close to one of the most polarizing times of the Major League Baseball season: the trade deadline. With this year’s deadline set for July 31, we’re just two short weeks away from contending teams loading up for the stretch drive. That also means the deadline “sellers” are preparing to offload expiring and/or hefty contracts they no longer want any part of in return for hope for the future.

Unfortunately, the trade deadline season has been painfully slow to develop. The problem is that there are too many contenders. Or teams that think they’re contenders. Or teams that hope that they will be contenders come July 31.

We have MLB’s expanded playoffs to thank for this recent change in how trade deadlines work. Since the league increased the number of postseason spots in 2022, the weeks leading up to the deadline are more muddled than ever.

MLB’s Current Playoff Format Has Generated More Interest

Baseball’s ever-changing playoff formats have taken many forms over the years, since the beginning of the professional game, really. More recently, fans will remember those painful single-elimination Wild Card games from 2012-19 and in 2021. But it was really the shortened 2020 pandemic season that set the groundwork for what we have today. The league expanded the playoffs to 16 teams that year to make up for playing just a 60-game regular season.

That 2020 trial gave the powers that be the opportunity they needed to finally expand the postseason permanently to 12 teams in 2022. They added a third Wild Card berth, and now we get two best-of-three Wild Card series in each league. All in the name of fan interest. And what does more fan interest mean? Money.

More fans engaged deeper into the season, and more teams in the postseason, means more revenue. It’s good for baseball. And it’s good for the owners who will take any chance they can to bring in more money.

So, gone are the days when half the league was out of division and playoff races by the time June rolled around, if they were lucky. So while fans remain interested longer and owners get what they really want, the trade deadline suffers.

More ‘Contending’ Teams Means More Trade Deadline Confusion

Under this playoff format, it’s difficult to know who are the buyers and who are the sellers (aside from a few extremely obvious perennial punching bags). The fans don’t know, the media doesn’t know. Heck, the teams don’t even know.

Some division races are still tight as we exit the All-Star break. The National League East and Central races are within one game, while three games separate the top three American League East teams. Those races could easily go down to the wire. Others, however, are getting close to being out of hand, if they haven’t gotten there already. In the AL Central, for example, the Detroit Tigers are running away with an 11-game lead.

But thanks to Wild Card races, one week can change a team’s entire season outlook. Take the Boston Red Sox. They went into the break on a 10-game heater and thrust themselves back into a Wild Card spot and are again in play in the AL East.

Heading into Saturday’s action, seven NL teams are in the battle for the three Wild Card spots, with five-and-a-half games separating the last team and the third Wild Card. The Miami Marlins are seven-and-a-half out, but you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks they’re trying to, or have any hope to, compete this year.

In the AL, there are nine teams still in the Wild Card chase. The furthest teams of that bunch are only four-and-a-half games back of the final postseason berth. The Baltimore Orioles are eight-and-a-half back, and while you’d think they could make a push, this year seems like a write-off.

MLB’s Trade Deadline Has a Supply-and-Demand Problem

One of the bubble teams in the NL, the Arizona Diamondbacks (5.5 GB), is still waiting for a last-minute run, according to the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro. We’re just two weeks out from the trade deadline, and D-backs general manager Mike Hazen is still hoping his team can make the decision easier for him before he has to choose which way to go this deadline.

“As you can imagine, I’m fielding a lot of calls from the buyers because they see us a certain way, which I understand, and that’s probably going to continue unless we go on a run,” Hazen told Piecoro over the All-Star break. “I’m waiting for that to happen.”

With all those teams still in the playoff hunt, potentially, that leaves six clear sellers. Seven if you count the Orioles. The Atlanta Braves don’t sound like they’re selling, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, despite their season being over before it began. That’s not much supply for the 12 contenders and playoff hopefuls circling like vultures.

So, while the playoffs are always a spectacle and the best part of the MLB calendar, the current format has taken a significant bite out of the build-up and prolonged anticipation of the trade deadline.