5 Reasons the D-backs Can Still Contend in 2025

It’s been well-covered across the baseball media world, in both articles and every corner of social media, that it is going to be extremely tough for the Arizona Diamondbacks to avoid being forced into selling at the upcoming MLB trade deadline on July 31.

With the endless stream of gut-punching injuries the team has been dealt this season, it’s fair to say that it just might be too much for any team to overcome. After all, they just put their third closer, Shelby Miller, on the injured list with a right forearm strain on Monday, July 7.

However, this team is a unique club that has overcome all of this to still be in the range of playoff contention and near .500. Not many teams that lost their ace, three elite relievers, multiple more quality relievers, their starting DH, and their catcher, and that dealt with injuries to players of Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte’s calibre, would be able to still play the kind of baseball they are playing.

To that point, it makes sense that their pitching has been in a rut, especially the bullpen, which has seen the most injuries of any part of the team. Only one reliever in the current bullpen, Jalen Beeks, has been able to spend the entire season in the majors and stay healthy thus far. The rest have been demoted, sent down and up, released, or injured.

Thus, despite being just 46-47 and 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, there is a chance that the D-backs could outperform what everyone expects, as they’ve done before, most notably in 2023, and at least get close enough to entice general manager Mike Hazen to go out and acquire some reinforcements to push them over the finish line.

Stats updated prior to games on July 8.

Why the D-backs Can Still Contend This Season

1. The Offense

Fresh off having the majors’ best offense in 2024, the Diamondbacks have returned with one of the best run-scoring units in 2025. The offense can help make up for a rough bullpen by scoring a lot of runs, as they’ve done this year thus far.

Not many teams under .500 can lay claim to three All-Stars in any season, as that doesn’t happen very often. It’s especially unlikely for all three to be position players. Yet, the D-backs managed that, with Marte winning the fan vote at second base and Carroll and Eugenio Suárez getting in as backups.

Those three have propelled the D-backs offense to a top-five ranking in home runs (133, 4th), RBI (457, 3rd), runs (467, 3rd), walks (323, 3rd), slugging (.446, 4th), and OPS (.774, 4th). They’ve scored 5.13 runs per game, one of the highest averages in MLB.

The team currently has 10 players with an OPS+ over 100, with 100 being league average. They have eight with an OPS+ higher than 111, indicating that they’ve been performing excellently with the stick.

There should be plenty of scoring to come for Arizona to finish the season, as they have continued to perform at the plate all year with minimal slumps. A top-five offense can make up for a lot, albeit as long as they get decent enough pitching.

2. The Starting Pitchers Are Getting Better

Much has been written about Zac Gallen and his struggles this year. However, it would appear that he’s found the fastball confidence he had back in 2022 and 2023 to get back into form. That has coincided with working alongside veteran catcher James McCann, who is shaping up to be a critical piece of the puzzle for the Arizona pitching staff.

Over Gallen’s last 13 innings against two good NL teams, the Giants and Padres, he’s struck out 19, given up one run, and allowed only 10 hits and one walk. Both of those starts came with McCann. In fact, each of his last three starts has been with McCann, and he’s pitched to a 2.95 ERA over 18.1 innings. That’s superb compared to his season-long 5.15 ERA.

Merrill Kelly has been a sturdy veteran, reliably providing innings and quality outings. He has a 3.55 ERA over 104 innings with 103 strikeouts and just 29 walks. He’s achieved 2.3 bWAR and has been Arizona’s most valuable pitcher this season.

He’s been even better since the start of June. Over his last six games and 35 innings, he has a 3.09 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 39 strikeouts against just 29 hits and 11 walks.

Speaking of stellar performances over the last month, there’s no one that’s had a better time since early June on the D-backs than Ryne Nelson.

Despite starting the season in the bullpen before replacing ace Corbin Burnes after his injury, Nelson has a 3.39 ERA over 74.1 innings and has achieved 1.8 bWAR already in just 19 games and nine starts.

Since June 1, and this includes a seven-run meltdown, he’s pitched 32.1 innings and has an ERA of 3.34 and a FIP of 3.52 with only 21 hits allowed, 10 walks, and 29 strikeouts. He’s 3-1 in that time frame and is shaping up to potentially be Arizona’s best pitcher in the second half.

Eduardo Rodriguez had a tough outing on July 4 when he gave up nine runs against the Royals. Yet, even including that, he still has a 3.98 ERA over his last 31.2 innings since coming back from injury. He has 35 strikeouts and is getting a lot of in-zone whiffs when he lives on the edges of the strike zone.

Last but not least is Brandon Pfaadt, who has still struggled to put it together over the last month or so, but he’s had quality stretches before, such as to start the season when he had six quality starts in his first 10 starts of the year.

3. Gabriel Moreno‘s Eventual Return

There’s no mistaking that when Gabriel Moreno is healthy, he’s one of the best catchers in the National League. He’s won a Gold Glove and offers strong defense behind the plate to go along with a good arm to control the running game.

Plus, his bat this year is at a 104 OPS+, which is excellent compared to catchers across MLB. Catchers typically hit well below league average, so the fact that Moreno can provide that kind of offense at this position is a boon to Arizona.

He’s held in high regard among Arizona pitchers and has developed into a better game-caller, though his catcher ERA of 4.92 does leave something to be desired. Still, the D-backs are known to be far better at winning games with him behind the plate than without him. This was evident in 2023 and 2024.

4. The Trade Deadline

Hazen has spoken often about the fact that he wants to add to this team. If they are close enough to a Wild Card spot without too many teams ahead of them, he will buy at the deadline. The D-backs can make that happen, and if they do, they could receive some extremely valuable and important relievers and reinforcements that can create a runway for the team to contend for the playoffs once again.

Hazen has proven to be a strong trader, with the acumen for getting good deals and finding impact players that weren’t previously known to be available, such as A.J. Puk and Paul Sewald. Should the Diamondbacks be able to buy or be near a position to buy, they could get the pieces they need to finish the season strong and find their way into the dance, where anything can happen, like in 2023.

5. Second-Half Performances

Last season, the D-backs struggled a lot in the first half. They even had a record of 45-47 on July 9, identical to their 45-47 record as of July 9, 2025.

Yet, that Diamondbacks team still bought at the deadline and finished the season with 89 wins. Aside from losing Justin Martinez and Puk, the team is relatively the same too, with a swap at first base and a slightly worse bullpen.

Last year, Arizona had a second-half record of 40-25, which included a late September collapse. In theory, Arizona has the talent to manage that once again this year with some deadline additions and the rest of their roster just staying healthy from this point on.

It helps that the players are extremely motivated not to sell at the deadline so as to give themselves a shot at the postseason. All of this is to say that the D-backs are not that far off from last year’s team and have the capability to do the same thing that the 2024 team did and go on a second-half run, especially if they can avoid selling at the deadline.