The Boston Red Sox Have Slipped From the Wild Card Race

The Boston Red Sox entered the All-Star break, the unofficial halfway point of the MLB season, riding high. They had just taken two out of three from the Royals, a team that was chasing them in the Wild Card race. All was well in Beantown.

The Red Sox had been playing spectacular baseball for two months before the break, losing just one series between May 29 and July 13. That stretch included series wins against the Phillies and Royals and two series wins against the Yankees.

Boston was 10 games over .500, and dreams of not just a Wild Card berth but potentially chasing down the Orioles and Yankees in the AL East seemed within reach.

The break could not have come at a worse time for this club, though, as the days off seemed to squash their momentum.

The Red Sox started the second half losing seven of their first nine games, including dropping a series to the lowly Rockies. They watched their grasp on a playoff berth slip away.

While the second half has had some ups and downs for Boston, the team’s overall performance has been lackluster. They have a 21-30 record since the All-Star break.

With just a few weeks remaining in the regular season, and multiple teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race, this second-half performance has all but ended what was shaping up to be a promising season for the Red Sox – a season that felt, at times, like the team was due for a Cinderella run reminiscent of 2013 and 2021.

This all raises the question of what went wrong. The short answer to that question is pitching.

In fact, Red Sox pitchers have the distinction of being the only staff in baseball to post a negative fWAR since the All-Star break. Their fWAR is more than a full win worse than the next closest team, the miserable White Sox.

The Red Sox rank 29th in ERA since the break, posting a 5.09 mark. It should come as little surprise, then, that their staff has allowed nine more home runs than any other team in baseball over that stretch, with a shocking 1.64 HR/9.

With runs pouring in and the ball flying over the fence, it simply became too much for an already over-achieving offense to withstand.

While there is certainly blame to go around among Boston’s pitching staff, the bullpen has been particularly bad over this stretch. They have more blown saves (14) than successful saves (11), and they have posted a league-worst 6.23 ERA. That’s more than a full run worse than the Pirates, who rank 29th.

What makes this all the more frustrating for Boston fans is that the team invested in the bullpen at the trade deadline. They acquired Luis García and Lucas Sims, both of whom cost meaningful prospect capital. Neither has performed well, to put it mildly. 

Sims posted an 8.10 ERA over 11 appearances with a dismal K:BB ratio of 1.00. He allowed at least one run in five of his 11 appearances before hitting the IL.

García was even worse, posting an ERA north of 10.00 with the Red Sox. He has a WHIP over 1.90 and allowed at least one run in six of his 11 appearances for Boston before he, too, landed on the IL.

Those performances, in combination with injuries to Chris Martin and Justin Slaten, have proved too much for the Red Sox to overcome in the second half.

The problem has been exacerbated by the fact that many of the starters who had carried the team in the first half have understandably run out of gas. Both Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford have blown past their previous career highs in innings, and both pitchers have faded from their fast starts as the season has gone forward.

While the future is still bright in Boston – farmhand Roman Anthony was recently named Baseball America’s No. 1 prospect, and the Red Sox have six prospects on Just Baseball’s Top 100 – it seems like Red Sox Nation will have to wait at least another year before their team is in the playoffs.

Still, falling short, while disappointing, should not diminish the positive progression of players like Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and others who will help usher in the next championship window in Boston.