To Trade or Not To Trade: The Byron Buxton Dilemma

The All-Star Game is less than a week away, and the July 31 trade deadline is quickly approaching. Teams are now discovering if they will be buyers or sellers. The Minnesota Twins have found themselves somewhere in the middle. This has led fans to ask: Could Byron Buxton be available?

It should be said that, technically, any player is always available. If they are willing to pay a high enough price, almost any team can trade for any player at any time. There is almost no doubt in my mind that the Twins will receive calls on their star center fielder. However, it is hard to guess how receptive they will be to said calls.

There is a case both for and against trading the All-Star outfielder.

The Case for Trading Byron Buxton

This might be a hard sell for most Twins fans, and it is easy to understand why. Buxton has been a Twin since he was drafted second overall in 2012. Fans are attached to him. Having to see Buxton in another uniform would feel a lot like watching Justin Morneau leave the Twins in 2013. It just wouldn’t feel right.

Despite the sentimental feelings that a lot of fans have for Buxton, I would encourage them to at least hear out the argument.

A Seller’s Market

As of right now, it is setting up to be a seller’s market. This doesn’t look like it’s going to be that deep of a trade deadline as far as talent that’s likely to be on the move. This puts the Twins in a unique position to move Buxton.

Should Buxton be made available, he would likely be the most talented player on the market at the deadline. That, coupled with him playing a premier position where a lot of teams could use an upgrade, and the price could be sky high.

As of right now, the best bat on the market appears to be Eugenio Suárez. Suárez is having a great season at the plate, and despite having significantly more homers than Buxton, he has a lower wRC+. He is also a mediocre defender at third base and will be a free agent at the end of the season.

The fact that Buxton is under team control until 2029 on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the majors is also a massive boost to his value.

With all of this being said, there isn’t much of a case to move Buxton unless the Twins get back a king’s ransom. There could be a perfect storm brewing that would get the Twins that ransom.

Two teams that have World Series aspirations and could use his services are the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. If a situation develops where one of those teams is calling on Buxton, it could start a bidding war.

Both of those teams could use Buxton, but they also would likely want to prevent Buxton from going to their division rival. Would he be enough to convince Philly to give up Andrew Painter? Would the Mets be willing to send Brandon Sproat or Noah McLean? If so, it could be enough to convince the Twins to part with their franchise player.

Limbo of Mediocrity

Over the Twins’ last four seasons (not including this year), they have a record of 320-328. They have only made the playoffs once and have only won a single postseason series.

Every one of those seasons has started the same way from a fan perspective: We are talented enough to win this division and compete in the playoffs. Despite fans coming in with that mentality every year, things have only worked out once.

While ownership and the front office appear to be okay with living in the middle every season, the fans are not. Instead of making inconsequential moves that don’t move the needle up or down, it is time leadership commits to one side or the other. Either get aggressive and make big moves to compete, or cash in now and tear it down.

Tearing it down is not ideal, but the Twins currently sit several games out of a playoff spot. There hasn’t been a ton of hope either.

With the kind of package that Buxton could command, trading him could be a kick-start to competing in the future. As good as he is, if he can net the Twins a couple of prospects that project as good major leaguers, then maybe it is time to move on.

The Case Against Trading Byron Buxton

There is a really strong chance the Twins receive calls on Byron Buxton. However, the ball is ultimately in their court. Under the current circumstances, there are a lot of reasons to keep Buxton in a Twins uniform.

Twins Legend

Buxton has all but cemented himself as a Twins legend. He has been the heir apparent to Joe Mauer since Mauer’s retirement in 2018.

Minnesotans have always loved and cared for the stars of their sports teams. All four major sports in the state have a star: Justin Jefferson on the Vikings, Anthony Edwards on the Timberwolves, Kirill Kaprizov on the Wild, and Byron Buxton on the Twins.

He is the face of the franchise and feels like a player who should spend his entire career with the organization. At the end of the day, he is only in his age-31 season. He could have another seven years or more in the league.

If he plays seven more seasons in Minnesota, the number 25 will undoubtedly be hanging up in left field when he retires.

Trading Buxton would signal to the fans that the team has no plans to be competitive. It would also likely kick start a tear down, sapping any and all morale the fans have left.

Sports are inherently human. We often see decisions made with the heart instead of the brain, but those are often times the easiest decisions to make. That is the case here. More than any of the “logical” reasons to keep Buxton around, the best reason to hold onto him is what he means to the team, the fans, and the city.

Team-Friendly Contract

As far as the most team-friendly contracts in the sport go, Buxton’s has to be in the top five. In 2022, he signed a seven-year, $100 million contract that keeps him in Minnesota through 2028. That is an average annual value of just $14.29 million.

In the three and a half seasons since signing that contract, Buxton has a 128 wRC+ and 11.0 fWAR. These have also been some of the healthiest seasons of his career.

FanGraphs has a stat on their player pages that converts a player’s fWAR into a dollar amount. That amount indicates how much money the player has been worth based on their production in any given year. Since 2022, Buxton has been worth $87.5 million. That is an average annual value of $21.8 million, and this season is only half over.

Since 2022, among primary center fielders with at least 500 plate appearances, Buxton ranks fifth in fWAR. He also only trails Aaron Judge and Mike Trout in both wRC+ and slugging percentage.

Having a top-five player at a crucial position for just over $14M a year is incredibly valuable. Even when he is only playing 80-100 games a year, he gives the Twins top-five-player-at-the-position value. He is much more valuable on this roster than likely any trade return that would be brought in.

Trading a superstar player on this kind of contract with three years left just does not seem like a good business decision.

What Should the Twins do?

There are a couple of additional factors in play yet to be mentioned. The first is that Buxton has a full no-trade clause. It is one that he asked to be put in the contract.

Not to get too into the weeds, but Buxton, who has three children, is very family-oriented. Everything indicates that he and his family are very happy in Minnesota. Sometimes the peace of mind of your family takes priority over your career.

The point being, regardless of what the Twins want to do, Buxton has to approve it at the end of the day.

Ultimately, it is a reality that the Twins are going to receive calls on him. However, the starting point for trade negotiations should be two top-five prospects from a good system.

If the Phillies call, Painter and Justin Crawford need to be in the deal, or the Twins should hang up the phone. If the Reds call and don’t offer Rhett Lowder and Cam Collier, they need to hang up the phone. The asking price needs to be steep for the Twins to even consider moving off of Buxton.

If you are a fan of a different team and think that two of your team’s top five prospects, plus an add-on or two, is too much, then the reality is your team probably isn’t trading for Buxton. Or at least that is how it should be.

Byron Buxton should finish his career as a Minnesota Twin. The front office has been suspect for the last couple of seasons, so anything could happen. However, the best decision for the organization is to keep Buxton in Minnesota.

Stats updated prior to games on July 9.